Posted at 28 April 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q1) 1.20%,0.90% forecast, 1.00% previous
•US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q1) 1.20%,1.1% forecast, 1.0% previous
•US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q1) 1.20%,0.70% forecast,0.80% previous
•US Real Mar Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.0%, -0.1% previous
•US Mar Personal Income (MoM) 0.3%, 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Mar Personal Spending (MoM) 0.0%,-0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•US Mar PCE price index (MoM) 0.1%,0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Mar PCE Price index (YoY) 4.2%,5.0% previous
•US Mar Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Mar Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.6%, 4.5% forecast,4.6% previous
•Canada Feb GDP (MoM) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US Apr Chicago PMI 48.6,43.5 forecast, 43.8 previous
•US Apr Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.00%,2.90% previous
•US Apr Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.6%, 4.6% previous
•US Apr Michigan Current Conditions 68.2,66.0 forecast,68.6 previous
•US Apr Michigan Consumer Sentiment 63.5,63.5 forecast,63.5 previous
•US Apr Michigan Consumer Expectations 60.5, 61.8 forecast,60.3 previous
• Canada Feb Budget Balance 9.53B,3.90B forecast,-0.91B previous
•Canada Feb Budget Balance (YoY) 3.09B,-6.44B previous
•US Mar Dallas Fed PCE 3.40%,4.00% previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 591,591 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 755,753 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro fell on Friday after economic data painted a mixed picture for growth and inflation across the euro zone, raising uncertainty around the size of the European Central Bank's expected interest rate hike next week. Preliminary data showed gross domestic product in the euro zone expanded by 0.1% in the first quarter, below expectations in a poll for 0.2% . The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0986, but remained near its recent one-year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1038 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1080(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0976 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0912(April 19th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose against the dollar on Friday as sterling was bolstered by bets that the BoE will hike interest rates by more than previously expected. The pound is not far off 10-month highs at $1.2540 that it touched on April 14. Traders are predicting a 92% chance of a 25 bps hike from the Bank of England (BoE) at its next meeting set for May 11th. The BoE has hiked rates eleven times since the beginning of this rate hiking cycle in December 2021, as it battles to bring down double-digit inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2580 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2633(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2478(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2463(9DMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, rebounding from a one-month low, as risk appetite picked up and investors adjusted their currency hedges to take account of moves this month in their portfolios. Oil rose after U.S. data showed that crude output was declining while fuel demand was growing. The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3550 to the greenback, or 73.80 U.S. cents, after earlier touching its weakest since March 28 at 1.3667.For the week, the loonie was down 0.1%, while it also posted a small decline for April of 0.3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3595(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3676 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3535 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3467(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against Japan's yen on Friday after the Bank of Japan kept rates ultra-low even as it announced a broad review of monetary policy. The Bank of Japan kept its loose monetary settings unchanged but revamped its guidance on the future path of policy, and announced a broad-perspective review with a planned time frame of around one to one-and-a-half years.In its first meeting under new governor Kazuo Ueda, the central bank modified its forward guidance by removing a pledge to keep interest rates at current or lower levels. Strong resistance can be seen at 136.55(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 137.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.74 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 134.34(5DMA)
Equities Recap
European shares staged a late-day turnaround on Friday after upbeat earnings and a rise in oil stocks helped the main STOXX 600 index shrug off bleak euro zone data and a fall in bank stocks.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.50 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.77 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.10 percent.
U.S. stock indexes advanced on Friday after strong earnings updates from Exxon and Intel offset worries over Amazon's slowdown warning, while economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates next week..
Dow Jones closed up by 0.80 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.83 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.69 percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields drifted lower on Friday after data showed that the pace of inflation was slowing and consumer spending remained steady.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 3.1 basis points at 4.066%. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 7.8 basis points to 3.450%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 7.8 basis points to 3.678%.
Commodities Recap
Gold bounced back on Friday on a dip in yields and renewed concerns over the U.S. banking turmoil, putting the safe haven on course for its second monthly rise even as steady U.S. inflation reinforced bets for an interest rate hike next week.
Spot gold was 0.1% higher at $1,989.91 per ounce by 1:45 p.m. EDT (1745 GMT), up about 1.1% for the month. U.S. gold futures settled unchanged at $1,999.10.
Oil prices mostly rose over 2% on Friday after energy firms posted positive earnings and U.S. data showed crude output was declining while fuel demand was growing.
On its last day as the front-month, Brent futures for June delivery rose $1.17, or 1.5%, to settle at $79.54 a barrel, while the more actively traded July contract jumped 2.7% to settle at $80.33.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.02, or 2.7%, to settle at $76.78.