Posted at 20 April 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Mar PPI (MoM) -2.6%, -0.5% forecast, -0.3% previous
•German Mar PPI (YoY) 7.5%,9.8% forecast,15.8% previous
•French Apr Business Survey 101,103 forecast, 104 previous
•EU Feb Trade Balance 4.6B, -22.3B forecast,-30.6B previous
•Greek Feb Current Account (YoY) -1.325B, -0.800B forecast,-0.125B previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,865K, 1,820K forecast,1,810K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 239.75K, 255.15K forecast,240.00K previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 245K, 240K forecast, 239K previous
• US Apr Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -31.3, -19.2 forecast, -23.2 previous
• US Apr Philly Fed New Orders -22.7,-21.2 forecast, -28.2 previous
• US Apr Philly Fed CAPEX Index -5.40,8.30 forecast,-3.80 previous
• US Apr Philly Fed Business Conditions -1.5,-11.9 forecast, -8.0 previous
• US Apr Philly Fed Prices Paid 8.20,28.00 forecast, 23.50 previous
• US Apr Philly Fed Employment -0.2,-2.6 forecast,-10.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 14:00 Mar US Existing Home Sales (MoM) 5.0% forecast,14.5% previous
• 14:00 EU Apr Consumer Confidence -18.5 forecast,-19.2 previous
• 14:00 US Mar Existing Home Sales 4.50M forecast,4.58M previous
• 14:00 US Mar US Leading Index (MoM) -0.6% forecast, -0.3% previous
•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 0.1% forecast,-4.7% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.790% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:30 Canada BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
•19:00 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•20:15 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro steadied on Thursday after strong U.S. banking results firmed up expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep raising interest rates. ECB policymaker Klaas Knot said inflation is still too high and a “sufficiently restrictive stance” is needed. The ECB is expected to raise rates for a seventh straight meeting on May 4, with policymakers converging on a 25-bp hike, even if a larger move is not yet off the table. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.0964, not far from a one-year high touched last week against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0971(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1036(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0905(38.2%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0848 (April 11th low).
GBP/USD: The pound retreated on Thursday after data showed British inflation is proving far more persistent than expected and is far higher than anywhere else in Western Europe, underscoring the threat to an already fragile economy. Headline inflation fell to 10.1% in March from February’s 10.4%, but it was well above expectations for a fall to 9.8%, data showed on Wednesday. More worryingly, the details in the report from the Office for National Statistics showed price pressures are everywhere and cannot be easily explained away by the sharp rise in the cost of energy over the last couple of years. The pound was last flat against the dollar at $1.244.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2449(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2541(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2374(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2281(April 3rd low).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against Swiss Franc on Thursday as caution reigned on global financial markets before a barrage of central bank meetings in the coming weeks. The hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams saying that the inflation rate is still at problematic levels and that the U.S. central bank will act to lower it. Traders are anticipating further cues on monetary policy from U.S. manufacturing data on Friday, the Bank of Japan’s meeting next week, and the Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) early next month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9000(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9106(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8920(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8883(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against Japan's yen on Thursday as a cautious mood set in among investors in a subdued market contemplating the implications of an expected interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve next month. Money markets are now pricing in a more than 90% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next month, up from a probability of 81.4% on Monday.A Fed report showed U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks as employment growth moderated somewhat and price increases appeared to slow. Strong resistance can be seen at 135.25(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 135.78(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 133.19(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 132.92(23.6%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Thursday as sticky inflation spurred concerns of more rate hikes by the European Central Bank, while investors looked ahead to more corporate earnings.
At (GMT 13:23 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.21 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.88 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.44 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Thursday as the dollar dipped, lifting bullion from previous session's sharp retreat on uncertainty over the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hike path fuelled by hawkish commentary from some policymakers.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,003.17 per ounce by 1034 GMT, after hitting a more than two-week low of $1969.1 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,012.50.
Oil prices fell to their lowest in about three weeks on Thursday, depressed by a firmer dollar and rate hike expectations which outweighed lower U.S. crude stocks.
Brent crude futures were down $1.13, or 1.4%, to trade at $81.99 a barrel at 1141 GMT. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures dropped $1.04, or 1.3%, to $78.12 a barrel.