Posted at 18 April 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Feb Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) 169K,50K forecast,65K previous
• UK Feb Average Earnings Index +Bonus 5.9%, 5.1% forecast,5.7% previous
• UK Feb Average Earnings ex Bonus 6.6%,6.2% forecast,6.5% previous
• UK Feb Unemployment Rate 3.8%,3.7% forecast,3.7% previous
• UK Mar Claimant Count Change 28.2K ,10.2K forecast, -11.2K previous
•Italian Feb Trade Balance 2.108B,-3.230B forecast,-4.194B previous
•Italian Feb Trade Balance EU -1.89B,-2.81B previous
•Spanish 3-Month Letras Auction2.917%,2.638% previous
•German Apr ZEW Current Conditions -32.5,-40.0 forecast,-46.5 previous
•EU ZEW Apr Economic Sentiment 6.4, 13.0 forecast,10.0 previous
•German Apr ZEW Economic Sentiment 4.1,15.3 forecast,13.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Mar Core CPI (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.5% previous
•12:30 US Mar Housing Starts (MoM) 0.4% forecast,9.8% previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Common CPI (YoY) 6.2% forecast,6.4% previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Core CPI (YoY) 4.4% forecast,4.7% previous
•12:30 Canada Mar CPI (YoY) 4.3% forecast,5.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Median CPI (YoY) 4.8% forecast,4.9% previous
•12:30 Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) 4.8% forecast,4.8% previous
•12:30 US Mar Housing Starts 1.400M forecast,1.450M previous
•12:30 US Mar Building Permits (MoM) -6.0% forecast,15.8% previous
•12:30 Canada Mar CPI (MoM) 0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
•12:30 US Mar Building Permits 1.450M forecast,1.550M previous
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY 1.5% previous
•15:00 Global Dairy Trade Price Index 0.1% forecast,-4.7% previous
•15:30 US 52-Week Bill Auction 4.390% previous
•16:00 UK Labour Productivity (Q4) 0.3% forecast,0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:00 ECB's Elderson Speaks
•15:00 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
•15:30 Canada BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Tuesday after easing U.S. dollar and signs of Europe's interest rates staying elevated boosting euro across the board. The ECB needs to keep raising interest rates even if most of its past hikes have yet to feed through to the economy as rapid price growth was at risk of getting entrenched, German central bank chief Joachim Nagel said on Friday. The euro was last up 0.4% versus the dollar at $1.0969 after two consecutive daily falls of over 0.5%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0978(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0900(38.2%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0830(April 11th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose on Tuesday after data showed pay growth was higher than forecast, supporting investors’ expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will continue to hike rates in an effort to tame inflation.Britain’s unemployment rate rose unexpectedly 3.8% in the three months to February - rather than holding at 3.7%, as forecast by economists in a poll.But pay growth for the three months to January was revised up to 5.9% and held at that level for the three months to February - well above the forecast of 5.1% in the Reuters poll. Excluding bonuses, wage growth held at 6.6%.Sterling rose 0.5% against a weakening dollar to $1.2437. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2456(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2566(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2321(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2281(April 3rd low).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against Swiss Franc on Tuesday as investors sought more clarity on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Focus will now be on comments from Fed officials this week before they enter a blackout period from April 22, ahead of the central bank's May 2-3 meeting. Markets are pricing in around a 90% chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting in May, with traders still expecting rate cuts towards the end of the year. Markets will also watch for reports from big U.S. banks later in the day after stellar results from other banks last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8995(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9038(14DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8923 (April 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8869(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against Japan's yen on Tuesday after better-than-forecast growth data from China. China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.5% year-on-year in the first three months of the year, data showed on Tuesday, beating analyst forecasts for a 4% expansion as the end of COVID-19 curbs lifted the world's second-largest economy out of a slump. Separate data on March activity also released on Tuesday showed retail sales growth quickened to 10.6%, beating expectations and hitting a near two-year high, while factory output growth also sped up but was just below expectations. Strong resistance can be seen at 134.75(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 135.15(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 133.26(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 132.84(14DMA)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Tuesday, as investors awaited more U.S. bank earnings to gauge the health of the sector, while China's stronger-than-expected economic recovery boosted sentiment.
At (GMT 09:44 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.68 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.66 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, buoyed by a weaker dollar, while investors looked for more clarity on the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike path ahead.
Spot gold rose 0.4 % to $2,002.72 per ounce by 0909 GMT. U.S. gold futures were also up 0.4% to $2,015.40.
Oil fell for a second day on Tuesday as upbeat Chinese economic data failed to deflect the focus from a possible increase to U.S. interest rates and wider concern about the growth outlook.
Brent crude fell 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $84.48 a barrel by 0908 GMT, giving up early gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate lost 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $80.53