Posted at 17 April 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada Feb Foreign Securities Purchases 4.62B, 6.28B forecast,4.21B previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.194%, 3.093% previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.329%,3.170% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.056%,2.901% previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.080%,4.980% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.870%, 4.795% previous
•US Feb TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps 72.20B ,111.80B forecast, 22.30B previous
•US Feb TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 71.0B, 101.9Bforecast, 31.9B previous
•US Feb Overall Net Capital Flow 28.00B, 197.60B forecast, 183.10B previous
•US Feb Foreign Buying, T-bonds 55.60B, 42.10B forecast,50.90B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 02:00 China Mar Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 5.7% forecast,5.5% previous
• 02:00 China Mar Industrial Production (YoY) 4.0% forecast,2.4% previous
• 02:00 Chinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q1) 4.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
• 02:00 Chinese GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 2.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• 02:00 Chinese Mar Retail Sales (YoY) 7.4% forecast, 3.5% previous
• 02:00 Chinese Mar Industrial Production YTD (YoY) 2.7% forecast,2.4% previous
• 02:00 Chinese Mar Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) 4.50% forecast,3.55% previous
• 02:00 Chinese Mar GDP (YoY) (Q1) 4.0% forecast, 2.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 01:30 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped Monday as investors focused on future European Central Bank rate hikes with growing caution given that an expected peak of 3.75% was already priced in. Expectations for monetary policy moves recently rose as banking crisis fears faded, and central bank hawks delivered unambiguous communication that more tightening was needed.The ECB needs to keep raising interest rates even if most of its past hikes have yet to feed through to the economy as rapid price growth was at risk of getting entrenched, German central bank chief Joachim Nagel said on Friday.ECB dovish official Mario Centeno said the ECB should pause rate hikes in May. The euro slid 0.66% to $1.0926 after hitting a one-year high of $1.108 on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1000(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.107(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0910(Daily low ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0856(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling inched down on Monday, ahead of a busy week of economic data that will set the tone for the Bank of England’s next meeting and the near-term fortunes for the British currency. Sterling inched down on Monday, ahead of a busy week of economic data that will set the tone for the Bank of England’s next meeting and the near-term fortunes for the British currency. UK February jobs figures are due on Tuesday, which will include wage growth figures, and March inflation numbers are out on Wednesday. British economic data this year so far has been largely coming in better than the albeit low expectations. Sterling was last trading at $1.2374, down 0.31% on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2443(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2522(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2323(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2272(April 3rd low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, giving back some recent gains, as oil prices fell and investors weighed prospects of additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.The U.S. dollar edged higher against a basket of major currencies and U.S. Treasury yields climbed after a strong New York manufacturing survey bolstered expectations the Fed will raise interest rates next month. Additional Fed tightening could weigh on economic growth, dampening demand for commodities. Canada is a major producer of commodities, including oil, which settled 2.1% lower at $80.83 a barrel.The Canadian dollar was down 0.3% at 1.34 to the greenback , after trading in a range of 1.3343 to 1.3419. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3403 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3433 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3383 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3364 (61.8% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar climbed to a one-month high against Japan's yen on Monday as traders eyed up another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan stuck to its easy-money policies for now. New Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda last week made clear that the country would remain a "dovish" outlier by keeping interest rates at ultra-low levels for the time being. Futures trading showed the probability of the Fed raising its lending rate to a range of 5.00%-5.25% when policymakers conclude a two-day meeting on May 3 rose to 88.7% from 78% on Friday, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed. The dollar rose to 134.56 yen earlier in the session, the highest level since March 15. It was last up 0.19% at 134.34 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 132.49(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.94(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 133.51(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 132.70(11DMA)
Equities Recap
European shares cooled off after five straight sessions of gains on Monday as bank shares led declines, while semiconductor stocks slipped after a report that the world's largest contract chipmaker, TSMC, was cutting its annual costs outlook.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.10 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.28 percent.
Major U.S. stock indexes posted modest gains on Monday, helped by financial and industrial shares, while investors braced for a heavy week of corporate results and comments from Federal Reserve officials that could give more insight into the path of interest rates.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.30 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.33 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.28 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold reversed course to slip below the key $2,000 level on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields, while investors looked for cues on whether the market will see a 'one and done' rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in May.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,995.42 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. EDT (17:40 GMT) after rising as much as 0.6% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% lower at $2,007.
Oil prices turned lower on Monday as the U.S. dollar strengthened and as investors mulled over a possible May interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could dampen economic recovery hopes.
Brent crude futures fell $1.55, or 1.8%, to settle at $84.76 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $1.69, or 2.1%, at $80.83 a barrel.