Posted at 14 April 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Sweden Mar CPI (YoY) 10.6%, 11.1% forecast,12.0%previous
•German Mar WPI (YoY) 2.0%, 4.4% forecast,8.9% previous
•German Mar WPI (MoM) 0.2% ,2.5% forecast,0.1% previous
•Swiss Mar PPI (YoY) 2.1%,2.9% forecast,2.7% previous
•Swiss Mar PPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•French Mar CPI (MoM) 0.7%, 0.8% forecast,1.1% previous
•French Mar HICP (YoY) 6.7%,6.6% forecast,7.3% previous
•French Mar HICP (MoM) 1.0%, 0.9% forecast,1.1% previous
•French CPI (YoY)5.7%, 5.6% forecast,6.3% previous
•Spanish Mar CPI (YoY) 3.3%,3.3% forecast,6.0% previous
•Spanish Mar HICP (YoY) 3.1%,3.1% forecast,6.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Mar Export Price Index (MoM) -0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•12:30 US Mar Retail Control (MoM) -0.3% forecast,0.5% previous
•12:30 US Mar Retail Sales (MoM) -0.4% forecast,-0.4% previous
•12:30 US Mar Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 2.8% previous
•12:30 US Mar Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
•12:30 US Mar Import Price Index (MoM) -0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•12:30 US Mar Retail Sales (YoY) 5.90% forecast,5.39% previous
•12:30 Canada Feb Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -2.7% forecast, 4.1% previous
•13:15 US Mar Industrial Production (YoY) -0.90% forecast, 0.32% previous
•13:15 US Mar Manufacturing Production (MoM)-0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•13:15 US Mar Capacity Utilization Rate 79.0% forecast,79.1% previous
•13:15 US Mar Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•14:00 US Apr Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.80% forecast,2.90% previous
•14:00 US Apr Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.5% forecast,3.6% previous
•14:00 US Apr Michigan Consumer Sentiment 62.0 forecast,62.0 previous
•14:00 US Apr Michigan Consumer Expectations 60.0 forecast,59.2 previous
•14:00 US Apr Michigan Current Conditions 67.3 forecast,66.3 previous
•14:00 US Feb Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•14:00 US Feb Business Inventories (MoM) 0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 590 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 751 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:45 US Fed Waller Speaks
•18:15 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday but gains were limited as investors’ focus shifted to the European Central Bank’s monetary tightening path.The ECB should speed up its balance sheet reduction and could stop reinvesting cash from debt maturing in its largest bond-buying scheme to complement further interest rate hikes, Belgian policymaker Pierre Wunsch said.Several ECB officials mentioned the chance of a 50-basis-point rate hike in May, while Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel said the euro area was not heading for a recession as growth was likely to accelerate after a weak first quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1058(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1100(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0935(5DMA ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0866(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Friday but remained close to a 10-month high against the dollar, supported by improving appetite for risk ahead of a big week of British data that could provide clues on the outlook for monetary policy. In contrast, markets price in around a 65% chance the Bank of England will raise rates by 25 basis points next month and expect another 45 basis points of tightening by year-end.Inflation data released next Wednesday will be closely watched for clues on the outlook for monetary policy, while labour market data (Tuesday), retail sales (Friday) and the flash S&P Global/CIPS purchasing managers index (Friday) could also drive movement in the pound.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2545(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2611(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2472(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2446(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against Swiss Franc on Friday as traders ramped up expectations of an imminent end to the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hike cycle following signs that inflation may be cooling.Data on Thursday showed U.S. wholesale prices, as measured by the producer price index (PPI), fell by the most in nearly three years last month, a day after data showed the consumer index - CPI - was also softening as expected.The dollar index , which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six others, slid to a roughly one-year low of 100.78. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8982(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9032(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8867 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8846(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Friday on expectation Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its monetary policy tightening cycle. Several Fed policymakers last month considered pausing interest rate increases after the failure of two regional banks, according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 21-22 meeting which were released on Wednesday. The dollar index was headed for its longest stretch of weekly losses in almost three years.Strong resistance can be seen at 132.49(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 133.49(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 131.09(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 130.36(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday and were set for a fourth straight weekly gain, buoyed by hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve could soon pause its aggressive interest rate-hike cycle following cooler-than-expected inflation in March.
At (GMT 12:46 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.67 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.52 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.53 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held near one-year highs on Friday as recent U.S. economic data reinforced hopes that the Federal Reserve was close to the end of its rate-hiking cycle, which drove non-yielding bullion towards a second straight weekly rise.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,034.89 per ounce by 1108 GMT, with prices hovering below last session's high since March 9, 2022. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,052.30.
Oil prices edged higher on Friday after the West's energy watchdog said it expected global demand to rise to a record high this year on the back of a recovery in Chinese consumption.
Brent crude futures were up 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $86.18 per barrel at 1215 GMT. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) rose 12 cents, or 0.15%, to $82.28.