Posted at 03 February 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Sweden Jan Services PMI (MoM) 68.6,67.3 previous
•Spanish Jan Services PMI 46.6,51.5 forecast,55.8 previous
•German Jan Services PMI 52.2, 52.2 forecast, 48.7 previous
•German Jan Composite PMI 53.8, 54.3 forecast, 49.9 previous
•EU Jan Services PMI 51.2 forecast , 53.1 previous
•EU Jan Markit Composite PMI 52.3 forecast 52.2, 53.3 previous
•Russian Feb Forex Intervention 634.7B, 550.0B forecast, 585.9B previous
•UK Jan Services PMI 54.1,53.3 forecast, 53.6 previous
•UK Jan Composite PMI 54.2,53.4 forecast, 53.6 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data ahead (GMT)
•12:45 Feb ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.00% forecast, 0.00% previous
•12:45 Feb ECB Deposit Facility Rate -0.50% forecast, -0.50% previous
•12:45 Feb ECB ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,620K forecast,1,675K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 247.00K
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 245K,260K previous
•13:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) 1.5% forecast,9.6% previous
•14:45 US Jan Markit Composite PMI 50.8 forecast, 57.0 previous
•14:45 US Jan Services PMI 50.9 forecast, 57.6 previous
•15:00 US Dec Factory Orders (MoM) -0.2% forecast, 1.6% previous
•15:00 US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 59.5 forecast, 62.0 previous
•12:00 UK Feb BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% forecast, 0.25% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•12:00 UK BoE Inflation Report
•12:00 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
•12:00 UK Feb BoE MPC vote hike 9 forecast, 8 previous
•12:00 UK Feb BoE QE Total 875B forecast, 875B previous
•13:30 ECB Press Conference
•14:15 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro was marginally lower on Thursday ahead of a meeting of the European Central Bank, which might signal a faster-than-expected monetary tightening to fight rising inflation, while souring risk appetite supported the dollar. The ECB is all but certain to keep policy unchanged on Thursday but may be forced to acknowledge that inflation could stay high for longer than it had projected, a signal that some may take as a hint at a faster exit from stimulus. The euro was marginally weaker at $1.1296, after rising around 2% in the last three sessions on expectations of a hawkish shift from the ECB. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1209(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1239(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1169(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1100 (23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling firmed against dollar on Thursday as investors awaited Bank of England rate decision.Bank of England could set the path for further monetary tightening today . Investors have now fully priced a 25-basis-point rise in the BoE’s main interest rate to 0.50%.Most economists expect the Bank of England on track for second rate rise in under two months to raise rates to 0.5% on Feb. 3 from 0.25%. By 09:54 GMT, the pound was up 0.39% at $1.3559, pulling further away from one-month lows .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3623 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3711(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3558(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3447(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Thursday as dollar found some footing on as traders awaited central bank meetings in Britain and Europe. Policy decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) are due at 1200 GMT and 1245 GMT respectively, and a news conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled at 1330 GMT. Markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point hike from the BoE, so the focus will likely fall on the outlook. While the ECB is not expected to offer up policy changes, hot consumer prices and recent strong labour data has raised expectations for a shift away from describing inflation as transitory. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9226 (38.2 % fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9276 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9181 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9138(61.8% fib ).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen on Thursday as Investors were awaiting signals from central banks in Britain and Europe on interest rates, with the U.S. jobs report on Friday in focus too. The markets awaited the outcome of the ECB meeting, BOE meeting and ahead of the much anticipated U.S. data tomorrow The greenback rose as far as 114.75 yen, its highest since 1st Feb. Strong resistance can be seen at 115.49(Jan 29th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 115.73 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 115.12 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 114.62 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks slipped on Thursday, as investors fretted about possible interest rate hikes and monetary policy tightening ahead of key central bank decisions later in the day amid broadening inflationary pressures.
At (GMT 10:08 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.71 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.32 percent
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hovered on Thursday below the previous session's one-week high, as the U.S. dollar regained ground ahead of central bank meetings in Britain and Europe as their economies grapple with broadening inflationary risks.
Spot gold eased 0.2% to $1,803 an ounce, as of 0753 GMT, after hitting $1,810.86 in the previous session, its highest since Jan. 27. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,804.90.
Oil prices eased on Thursday following weak U.S. payrolls data and some profit-taking, but remained underpinned by tight supply as OPEC+ producers stuck to planned moderate output increases.
Brent crude fell 61 cents, or 0.7%, to $88.86 a barrel by 0915 GMT, after rising 31 cents on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 69 cents, or 0.8%, at $87.57 a barrel, having gained 6 cents the previous day.