Posted at 10 April 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Feb Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% forecast,-0.3% previous
• US Feb Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast,0.9% previous
• US Mar CB Employment Trends Index 116.24, 118.64 forecast,118.29 previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.980%,4.780% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.795%,4.705% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia Apr Westpac Consumer Sentiment 1.5% forecast,0.0% previous
•01:30 China Mar CPI (YoY) 1.0% forecast,1.0% previous
•01:30 China Mar CPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-0.5% previous
•01:30 China Mar PPI (YoY) -2.5% forecast,-1.4% previous
•01:30 Australia Mar NAB Business Survey 17 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Monday after strong U.S. payrolls data released last week cemented the case for another rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The United States, the world's largest economy, increased jobs at a brisk clip in March, data showed on Friday, signalling labour market resilience that is expected to keep the Fed on track to raise interest rates one more time next month. Markets are currently pricing in a 70% chance of a 25 basis-point Fed rate hike in May, while also pricing in cuts before the year-end. Markets participants are now waiting for the U.S. inflation print due on Wednesday that is expected to shape the path the Fed will take in its battle against rising prices . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0916(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0826(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0804(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound eased against dollar on Monday as the dollar firmed after the U.S. non-farm payrolls report pointed to a tight labour market and raised the odds of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its May policy meeting. Friday’s data from the U.S. Labor Department showed non-farm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs in March, versus expectations of 239,000. The data also showed the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5% from 3.6% in February. The data raised bets that the U.S. central bank would raise interest rates next month, with markets pricing in a 66.3% chance of the Fed hiking rates by a quarter of a percentage point, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2442(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2524(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2359(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2260(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian strengthened against greenback on Monday as investor confidence continued to improve after fears of a global banking crisis hurt sentiment last month. Traders are closely watching data on bank lending after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in mid-March sparked fears about bank contagion and led the government and Fed to intervene to shore up liquidity in the sector. Investors are also awaiting the Bank of Canada's decision on further monetary tightening, and analysts largely expect the central bank to keep the benchmark rate at 4.5%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3547 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.93559(20DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3484(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3392(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar held firm against the yen on Monday as greenback started the week on the front foot after U.S. jobs data pointed to a tight labour market, firming up expectations that the Federal Reserve will again raise interest rates at its meeting next month. U.S. Labor Department data on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs last month, just shy of the 239,000 expected by economists in poll.The closely-watched report also showed that annual wage gains slowed but remained too high to be consistent with the U.S. central bank's 2% inflation target. Strong resistance can be seen at 133.82 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.52 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 132.47(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 132.12(20DMA).
Equities Recap
European stock markets were closed on account of Easter holiday
U.S. stock indexes clawed back from steep losses to a mixed close on Monday as investors digested Friday's employment report and prepared for an eventful week of inflation data and bank earnings.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.30 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.10 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.03 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday in holiday-thinned trading, as investors continued to price in a 25 basis-point hike by the Federal Reserve at next month's policy meeting following a still strong U.S. jobs report that offset other weak economic data released earlier last week.
In late morning trading, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 4.7 bps at 3.430%.U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yields rose 3.8 bps to 3.641%.
Commodities Recap
Gold retreated below the key $2,000 level on Monday as the dollar advanced on Friday's strong U.S. jobs numbers, while traders also positioned for inflation readings this week that could influence interest rate hikes.
Spot gold fell nearly 1% to $1,988.88 per ounce by 1:57 p.m. EDT (17:57 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled down 1.1% at $1,989.10.
Oil prices settled lower on Monday, after rising for three straight weeks, as concern about further interest rate hikes that could curb demand balanced the prospect of a tighter market due to supply cuts from OPEC+ producers.
Brent crude settled down 96 cents, or 0.2%, at $84.58 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate also fell 94, or 0.1%, to $79.74. Both benchmarks fell by more than $1 earlier in the session