Posted at 06 April 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Prices jump 6% this week after OPEC+ announced voluntary cuts
•Falling US crude stockpiles add to supply concerns
•US oil rig count falls for a second week in a row - Baker Hughes
•Weak U.S. economic data dampens sentiment
•US Mar Challenger Job Cuts 89.703K,65.000K forecast,77.770K previous
•US Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) 319.4%, 148.0% forecast,410.1% previous
•Canada Mar Unemployment Rate 5.0%, 5.1% forecast,5.0% previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,699K forecast,1,689K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 237.75K, 196.50K forecast,198.25K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims228K,200K forecast,198K previous
•Canada Mar Participation Rate 65.6%, 65.5% forecast,65.7% previous
•Canada Mar Part Time Employment Change 15.9K, 15.0K forecast,-9.3K previous
•Canada Mar Full Employment Change 18.8K,-5.0K forecast,31.1K previous
•Canada Mar Ivey PMI n.s.a 65.2, 50.8 previous
•Canada Mar Ivey PMI 58.2,56.1 forecast,51.6 previous
•US Natural Gas Storage-23B,-21B forecast,-47B previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.650%, 4.600% previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.440%,4.600% previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count590,592 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 751,755 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•05:00 Japan Feb Leading Index (MoM) -0.6% previous
•05:00 Japan Feb Coincident Indicator (MoM) -3.0% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index 96.6 previous
Looking ahead events and Other Releases(GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro steadied on Thursday as investors awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls report, as investors sought clarity on whether the Federal Reserve might take a breather on its monetary tightening path. Investors now awaited Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report for March. However, market reactions can be gauged only by Monday as most financial markets will remain shut for the Good Friday holiday. Economists polled expect to see U.S. employers added 240,000 new workers in March, down from 311,000 the previous month. Average earnings growth is also expected to have slowed to 4.3% year-over-year, from 4.6% in March. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0984(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0884(14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0782(April 3rd low).
GBP/USD: The pound hovered just below its highest level in 10 months on Thursday as investor focus turned to Friday's U.S. jobs numbers. Markets were subdued across the board on Thursday ahead of the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls employment data on Friday.It will be a key factor in the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision and could cause volatility in markets. The U.S. jobs market has remained resolutely strong, keeping the pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates to tackle inflation. Yet analysts expect the U.S. to have added 239,000 jobs in March, a slowdown from February’s 311,00 figure. Sterling was last flat at $1.246, having touched its highest level since June - $1.253 - on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2516(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2606(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2420(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2301(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as investors doubted that stronger-than-expected domestic jobs data would spur the Bank of Canada to abandon its pause on interest rate hikes.Canada's economy added 35,000 jobs in March, eclipsing forecasts of a 12,000 gain, and the jobless rate remained near a record low, signaling economic resilience. Oil settled 0.1% higher at $80.70 a barrel on Thursday, while Wall Street rose in choppy trade as investors awaited U.S. jobs data following recent signs of a slowing economy. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3470 to the greenback, after moving in a range of 1.3448 to 1.3505. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3502 (9DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3540(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3467 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3380 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen on Thursday as investors digested weak labor market data and looked to Friday's jobs report for signs the Federal Reserve's restrictive policy could be edging the economy closer to recession. Economic data released on Thursday suggested the U.S. labor market is feeling the effects of the Federal Reserve's string of hawkish interest rate hikes in its attempt to cool down the economy and, in so doing, rein in inflation.On Friday, a market holiday, the Labor Department is due to release its March employment report, and market participants will have the weekend to digest the data before Monday's opening bell. Strong resistance can be seen at 132.17 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 133.10 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 130.68(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 129.68(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday, heading into a long Easter weekend break, as real estate and travel stocks helped outweigh concerns over a U.S. economic slowdown that were triggered by lacklustre data.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.03 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.50 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.12 percent.
Major U.S. stock indexes ended higher on Thursday, helped by a rally in Alphabet shares as investors, worried about a slowing economy, looked to upcoming jobs data.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.01 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.36 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.76 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields edged up on Thursday following recent declines after revised data for Americans seeking unemployment benefits indicated a weaker but still fairly strong labor market, giving investors pause before a key unemployment report.
The yield on benchmark 10-year notes rose 0.7 basis points to 3.294%, after earlier setting a fresh almost seven-month low.
The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 6 basis points to 3.823%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices pared some gains on Thursday ahead of a key U.S. jobs report, but bullion was still on track for a weekly rise as weak U.S. economic data spurred worries of a slowdown.
Spot gold was down 0.6% to $2,009.07 per ounce by 2:53 p.m. EDT (18:53 GMT), while U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled 0.5% lower at $2,026.40.
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday but posted a third weekly gain as markets weighed further production cuts targeted by OPEC+ and falling U.S. oil inventories against fears about the global economic outlook.
Brent crude settled up 13 cents, or 0.2%, at $85.12 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude closed 9 cents, or 0.1%, higher at $80.70. There will be no trading on the Good Friday holiday.