Posted at 05 April 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Mar ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 145K, 200K forecast,242K previous
•US Feb Trade Balance -70.50B,-69.00B forecast,-68.30B previous
•Canada Feb Trade Balance0.42B, 1.80B forecast,1.92B previous
•US Imports 321.70B,319.40B forecast,325.80B previous
•US Exports 251.15B, 250.40B forecast,257.50B previous
• Canada Feb Imports 64.61B, 63.20B forecast,65.10B previous
•Canada Feb Exports 65.03B, 64.60B forecast,67.02B previous
•US Mar Services PMI 52.6,53.8 forecast,53.8 previous
•US Mar S&P Global Composite PMI 52.3,53.3 forecast,53.3 previous
•US Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 52.2,53.0 forecast,54.0 previous
•US Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 51.2, 54.5 forecast,55.1 previous
•US Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 55.4,55.0 forecast,56.3 previous
•US Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 52.2, 62.0 forecast,62.6 previous
•US Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 59.5, 65.0 forecast,65.6 previous
•US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.970M,-0.518M forecast,-1.632M previous
•US Gasoline Production -4.119M, 0.024Mforecast,0.535M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•01:00 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)1.3% previous
•01:30 Australia FebTrade Balance 11.100B forecast,11.688B previous
•01:30 Australia Feb Imports (MoM) 5.0% previous
•01:30 Australia Feb Exports (MoM) 1.0% previous
•01:45 China Mar Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.7 forecast,51.6 previous
•01:45 China Mar Caixin Services PMI 55.0 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•01:30 Australia RBA Financial Stability Review
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Wednesday as investors lightened their short positions to book profits ahead of the all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday. The underlying trend though for the dollar remained tilted to the downside and Wednesday's U.S. private sector jobs numbers affirmed that. The jobs data supported the view that the Federal Reserve may not need to raise rates much further.Investors are looking to Friday's non-farm payrolls report for March, with economists polled expecting new jobs of about 240,000. The dollar index rose 0.4% to 101.87 , led by gains against the euro, which fell 0.5% to $1.0906 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0950(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0972(higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0846(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0734(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Wednesday, but remained close to its 10-month high against the dollar hit the day before, as improving economic circumstances have helped sterling to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the softening U.S. currency. The pound was last down 0.27% against a broadly rebounding dollar at $1.2466, having hit $1.2525 a day earlier, its highest since June 2022.The pound rallied roughly 2% against the dollar in the first quarter of the year, the most in the G10 and outpacing gains by other major European currencies. British economic data has largely come in slightly better than feared, the latest example being strong service sector activity data, released Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2516(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2606(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2420(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2301(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, with the currency consolidating its recent gains as investors turned attention to the release of U.S. and Canadian employment data over the coming days. Canada's employment report for March, due on Thursday, is expected to show the economy added 12,000 jobs. U.S. employment data is set for release on Friday. The price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, settled 0.1% lower at $80.61 a barrel as the market weighed worsening economic prospects against expectations of U.S. crude inventory declines and plans by OPEC+ producers to reduce output.The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3460 to the greenback , after touching on Tuesday its strongest intraday level since Feb. 16 at 1.3406 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3481(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3547(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3435(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3387(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Wednesday as a batch of data fueled worries that restrictive central bank policies could push the global economy into recession. A spate of economic indicators on Wednesday suggested economic cracks are beginning to show. Private sector job adds fell well short of expectations, demand for home loans is softening despite falling mortgage rates, and the services sector is losing momentum.Together, the data appears to suggest the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening - designed to rein in inflation by tossing cold water on the U.S. economy - is having its intended effect.Strong resistance can be seen at 132.17 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 133.10 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 130.68(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 129.68(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Wednesday as investors maintained a cautious stance after data signalled a slower-than-expected pick-up in the euro zone's economic recovery.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.37 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.53 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.39 percent.
The S&P 500 dipped and the Nasdaq ended sharply lower on Wednesday after a growing wave of weak economic data deepened worries that the Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate hikes might tip the U.S. economy into a recession.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.24 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.25 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.07 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasuries yields slid further on Wednesday after reports on private payrolls and the U.S. services sector pointed to a cooling economy and added to market speculation that the Federal Reserve might pause its hiking of interest rates in May.
Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 8/32 in price to yield 3.3089%, from 3.337% late on Tuesday.
The 30-year bond last rose 16/32 in price to yield 3.5676%, from 3.594% late on Tuesday.
Commodities Recap
Safe-haven gold touched its highest in one year on Wednesday as recent U.S. economic data fanned fears of a slowdown and spurred bets the Federal Reserve may ease up on rate hikes.
Spot gold was steady at $2,020.30 per ounce by 01:46 p.m. EDT (1746 GMT), after rising to its highest since March 2022 at $2,031.89 earlier.
Oil prices settled largely unchanged on Wednesday, despite greater-than-expected draws in U.S. crude and fuel stockpiles, as the market weighed worsening economic prospects against expectations of U.S. crude inventory declines and plans by OPEC+ producers to reduce output.
Brent crude futures settled up 5 cents, or 0.1%, at $84.99 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude ended 10 cents, or 0.1%, lower at $80.61 a barrel.