Posted at 03 April 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.881%, 2.804% previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.158% ,3.046% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.861%,2.946% previous
•Canada Mar Manufacturing PMI 48.6, 51.0 forecast,52.4 previous
•US Mar Manufacturing PMI 49.2,49.3 forecast,47.3 previous
•USISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 44.3, 49.0 forecast,47.0 previous
•US Feb Construction Spending (MoM) -0.1%,-0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•US Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI 46.3, 47.5 forecast, 47.7 previous
•US Mar ISM Manufacturing Prices 49.2, 51.2 forecast, 51.3 previous
•US Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment 46.9, 50.0 forecast, 49.1 previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.780%,4.675% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.705%,4.650% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan Mar Monetary Base (YoY) 2.0% forecast,-1.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•No data ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday after data showed the U.S. manufacturing sector weakened dramatically in March. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said new orders continued to contract. It was the fifth straight month that the PMI remained below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing, increasing market expectations the U.S. economy is headed into a recession. The euro was last up 0.6% at $1.0905, after touching a one-week low of $1.0788 earlier in the session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0908(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0971(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0824(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0769(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose higher against the dollar on Monday, with market moves largely driven by news of a surprise announcement from OPEC+ of more production cuts which sent the price of oil and the dollar sharply higher earlier in the session. With little in the way of UK-specific data this week, attention is staying on the Bank of England’s rate outlook and the UK’s economic outlook. Traders will be listening carefully to a speech due from Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill on Tuesday evening for more hints on the central bank’s next move. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2389(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2429(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2295(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2193(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened on Monday to hit a nearly seven-week high against the US dollar as oil prices rose and a Bank of Canada survey found that fewer firms expect a recession than was previously the case. The price of oil, one of Canada's top exports, rose 6.3% to $84.93 a barrel as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, or OPEC+, rattled markets with plans to continue cutting production. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.8% higher at 1.3412 per greenback, its biggest single-day advance since Feb. 10 and its strongest level since Feb. 16.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3483 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3558(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3394 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3351(16th Feb low).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Monday as data showed the U.S. economy continued to slow with declines in manufacturing and construction spending. Monday's economic reports showed U.S. manufacturing activity in March slumped to its lowest level in nearly three years as new orders continued to contract. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 last month, the lowest since May 2020, from 47.7 in February.U.S. construction spending also weakened, down 0.1% in February after increasing 0.4% in January.Data on Monday added to the narrative that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its rate-hike cycle.. Strong resistance can be seen at 133.03(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.13 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 131.63(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 130.69(29th March low).
Equities Recap
European shares were subdued on Monday, after ending a volatile quarter higher, while Britain's commodity-heavy FTSE 100 rallied as oil heavyweights jumped after a surprise announcement by OPEC+ to cut production further lifted crude prices.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up 0.54 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.31 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.32 percent.
Wall Street's major indexes closed mixed on Tuesday as investors worried that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer as fears of further banking sector failures faded.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.98% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.37% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.27% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields retreated on Monday after data showing U.S. manufacturing activity slumped to the lowest level in nearly three years increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year as the economy slows.
The yield on two-year Treasury notes, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 8.8 basis points to 3.974% after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said new orders continued to contract.
Commodities Recap
Gold rallied 1% on Monday as the dollar's retreat burnished bullion's appeal as a safe-haven after a surprise output cut by OPEC+ rekindled fears of prolonged inflation and triggered uncertainty about the central bank response.
Spot gold gained 0.9% at $1,984.75 per ounce by 1:45 p.m. EDT (1745 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.7% higher at $2,000.40.
Oil benchmarks jumped 6% on Monday, the day after the OPEC+ group jolted markets with plans to cut more production, raising fears of tightening supplies while some warned of reduced demand if oil refiners flinch at paying higher prices for crude.
Brent crude settled higher by $5.04, or 6.3%, at $84.93 a barrel, after touching its highest since March 7 at $86.44. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up by $4.75, or 6.3%, at $80.42 a barrel after rising to a two-month high during the session.