Posted at 03 April 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss March CPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.4% forecast,0.7% previous
•Swiss March CPI (YoY) 2.9%,3.2% forecast,3.4% previous
•French Feb Government Budget Balance -50.3B,-21.2B previous
•Spanish Mar Manufacturing PMI 51.3, 50.1 forecast,50.7 previous
•Italian Mar Manufacturing PMI 51.1,51.0 forecast,52.0 previous
•French Mar Manufacturing PMI 47.3,47.7 forecast,47.4 previous
•German Mar Manufacturing PMI 44.7, 44.4 forecast,46.3 previous
•EU Mar Manufacturing PMI 47.3,47.1 forecast,48.5 previous
•UK Mar Manufacturing PMI 47.9,48.0 forecast,49.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.804% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.046% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.946% previous
•13:30 Canada Mar Manufacturing PMI 51.0 forecast,52.4 previous
•13:45 US Mar Manufacturing PMI 49.3 forecast,47.3 previous
•14:00 UISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 49.0 forecast,47.0 previous
•14:00 US Feb Construction Spending (MoM) -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•14:00 US Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.5 forecast, 47.7 previous
•14:00 US Mar ISM Manufacturing Prices 51.2 forecast, 51.3 previous
•14:00 US Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment 50.0 forecast, 49.1 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.675% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.650% previous
•16:05 US Fed Dallas Fed PCE 6.30% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•20:15 US Fed Governor Cook Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as investors balanced renewed inflation fears, after surprise oil production cuts, against expectations of banks tightening lending standards. Forecasts for the ECB terminal deposit facility rate rose, with the November 2023 ECB euro short-term rate forward at 3.54%, implying market expectations for it to peak around 3.6%.Investors are also looking ahead to the euro area producer price index (PPI) and the ECB’s Consumer Expectation Survey, both due on Tuesday. The euro was last up 0.2% to $1.0865, after touching a one-week low of $1.0788 earlier in the session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0904(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0971(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0824(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0769(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling ticked higher against the dollar on Monday, with market moves largely driven by news of a surprise announcement from OPEC+ of more production cuts which sent the price of oil and the dollar sharply higher earlier in the session. With little in the way of UK-specific data this week, attention is staying on the Bank of England’s rate outlook and the UK’s economic outlook. Traders will be listening carefully to a speech due from Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill on Tuesday evening for more hints on the central bank’s next move. By 1030 GMT the pound was up 0.18% against the dollar which trimmed gains, at $1.2352. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2389(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2429(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2295(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2193(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Monday as fears over inflation resurfaced after a surprise announcement by major oil producers to cut production targets further, with traders wagering the Federal Reserve may need to increase interest rates again at its next meeting. The dollar, which had jumped on the surprise cut to output, slowly reversed course through the European morning to trade lower as attention turned back to central bank policy. Focus this week will be on U.S. activity data and Friday's jobs report, although many markets will be closed for the Easter holiday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9176(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9253(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9130(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9066(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Monday as investors focus on diverging central bank policy, with the impact of oil production cuts complicating the inflation outlook.An announcement on Sunday of output target cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, caused oil prices to jump by around 8% in early trade in Asia on Monday. Brent crude was last trading at $84 per barrel, up $4.10 or 5.1%. The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of six currencies including the euro, was down 0.4% at 102.49. Strong resistance can be seen at 133.74 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.18 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 132.83(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 130.41(5DM).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Monday, after ending a volatile quarter higher, as oil heavyweights rallied after a surprise announcement by OPEC+ to cut production further lifted crude prices.
At (GMT 11:13 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.60 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.13 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.30 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Monday after OPEC+ made a surprise announcement of oil output cuts, sparking inflation concerns and raising bets on more central bank rate hikes.
Spot gold was 0.2% lower at $1,964.69 per ounce by 0924 GMT, having earlier slipped to its lowest in nearly a week at $1,949.54. U.S. gold futures were also down 0.2% at $1,982.00.
Oil prices surged on Monday after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ producers announced a surprise cut in their output target, a move that rippled through stock markets, though the dollar failed to hold onto its early gains.
Brent crude futures looked set for its biggest daily percentage gain in around a year, jumping 5.77% to $84.52 a barrel on news OPEC+ would aim to cut output by around 1.16 million barrels per day. U.S. crude climbed 6.22% to $80.38.