Posted at 31 March 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•February US PCE growth slows
•For the day, Dow up 1.26%, S&P 500 up 1.44%, Nasdaq up 1.74%
•US Feb Personal Income (MoM) 0.3%,0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Feb Real Personal Consumption (MoM) -0.1%,1.1% previous
•US Feb PCE price index (MoM) 0.3%, 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Feb PCE Price index (YoY) 5.0%,5.1% forecast,5.4% previous
•US Feb Personal Spending (MoM) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast,1.8% previous
•US Feb Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.6%, 4.7% forecast,4.7% previous
•US Feb Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast,0.6% previous
•Canada Jan GDP (MoM) 0.5%,0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
•US Mar Chicago PMI 43.8,43.4 forecast,43.6 previous
•US Mar Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.6%,3.8% forecast,4.1% previous
•US Mar Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations2.90%, 2.80% forecast, 2.90% previous
•US Mar Michigan Consumer Sentiment 62.0,63.2 forecast,63.4 previous
•US Mar Michigan Current Conditions 66.3, 66.4 forecast,70.7 previous
•US Mar Michigan Consumer Expectations 59.2, 61.5 forecast, 64.7 previous
•US Feb Dallas Fed PCE 4.00%,6.30% previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 592,593 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 755,758 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Friday after inflation in the euro zone dropped by the most on record in March but core price growth accelerated. Consumer prices in the euro zone rose by 6.9% in March after an 8.5% increase in February, implying the biggest drop since Eurostat started collecting data in 1991.But the fall was almost exclusively due to lower energy prices compared to March last year, when they had surged in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0904(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0971(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0824(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0769(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased versus the dollar on Friday as a murky economic outlook overshadowed data showing Britain’s economy avoided a recession in the final months of 2022.Despite meagre trading on Friday, the pound remains on track for its biggest monthly gain in four months of 3%, and a 2.4% quarterly gain. High inflation and worries about weak growth are still weighing on the pound, which was down 0.45% at $1.2328. Data last week showed British inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% - over five times the Bank of England’s target rate of 2% and the highest among the Group of Seven rich nations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2428 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2464(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2290(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2245(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, giving back its weekly gain, as oil prices fell and the greenback gained ground against a basket of major currencies. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, settled 2.1% lower at $76.28 a barrel, closing a week marked by worries about Chinese demand and haggling over a Western price cap on Russian oil. The U.S. dollar rose but remained near multi-month lows as investors weighed prospects of the Federal Reserve moderating the pace of its policy tightening . The loonie was last trading 0.3% lower at 1.3380 to the greenback .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3368 (14DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3455 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3324(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3231 (Nov 16th low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, but the currency was holding near its strongest level in more than five weeks as Wall Street climbed and domestic data showed the economy growing at a faster-than-expected pace. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 1.8% higher at $75.67 a barrel, adding to its recent gains, while Canadian government bond yields eased across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries. The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3535 to the greenback, after touching its strongest intraday level since Feb. 21 at 1.3508.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3565 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3613 (March 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3509(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3451 (61.8% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar pared some gains against the yen on Friday after slower U.S. consumer spending growth boosted hopes the Federal Reserve would be less aggressive in hiking interest rates. U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in February after surging the prior month, and while inflation showed signs of cooling it remained elevated, which could prompt the Fed to raise interest rates once more this year. The dollar index rose 0.342%. The dollar index is on pace for its second straight quarterly decline. The Japanese yen weakened 0.08% versus the greenback at 132.74 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 133.53 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.00(Psychologically level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 132.41(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 131.76(5DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday, as fears of a full-blown banking crisis continued to recede and a record monthly drop in euro zone inflation figures and a dip in the U.S. Federal Reserve's favoured inflation gauge lifted sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.15 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.69 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0. 81percent.
Wall Street rallied more than 1% on Friday and the Nasdaq notched its biggest quarterly percentage gain since June 2020, as signs of cooling inflation bolstered hopes the Federal Reserve might soon end its aggressive interest rate hikes.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.26 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 1.44 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 1.74percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were on track for a second straight quarterly rise on Friday, as growing bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate hikes drew investors to the metal.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $1,968.25 per ounce by 2:26 p.m. EDT (1826 GMT), after prices moved as much as 0.4% higher following data that showed U.S. consumer spending rose modestly in February. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.6% at $1,986.2.
Oil prices rose by more than a dollar a barrel on Friday to record their second-straight week of gains, as supplies tightened in some parts of the world and U.S. inflation data indicated price rises were slowing.
The most actively traded Brent futures, for June delivery, settled up $1.29, or 1.6%, at $79.89 a barrel. Brent futures for May delivery, which expired upon settlement, gained 50 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $79.77 a barrel.