Posted at 31 March 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Feb Retail Sales (MoM) -1.3%, 0.5% forecast,0.1% previous
•German Feb Retail Sales (YoY) -7.1%,-6.1% forecast,-6.9% previous
• German Feb Import Price Index (YoY) 2.8%, 4.2% forecast,6.6% previous
• German Feb Import Price Index (MoM) -2.4%,-1.0% forecast,-1.2% previous
• UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q4)10.8%,13.2% forecast,1.3% previous
• UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4)-0.2%,4.8% forecast,-2.5% previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1%, 0.0% forecast, -0.3% previous
• UK Nationwide Mar HPI (YoY) -3.1%, -2.2% forecast -1.1% previous
• UK Mar Nationwide HPI (MoM) -0.8%, -0.3% forecast,-0.5% previous
• French Mar CPI (MoM) 0.8%, 0.8% forecast,1.0% previous
•French Feb Consumer Spending (MoM) -0.8%, 0.2% forecast,1.5% previous
•French Mar CPI (YoY) 5.6%,5.5% forecast,6.3% previous
•French Feb PPI (MoM) -0.9%,2.7% previous
• French HICP (MoM) 0.9%, 0.8% forecast,1.1% previous
•French HICP (YoY)6.6%, 6.5% forecast, 7.3% previous
•German Mar Unemployment Rate 5.6%, 5.5% forecast,5.5% previous
•German Mar Unemployment Change 16K, 3K forecast, 2K previous
•EU Feb Unemployment Rate 6.6%, 6.7% forecast,6.7% previous
• EU March CPI (YoY) 6.9%, 7.1% forecast,8.5% previous
• EU Mar HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 7.5%, 7.5% forecast, 7.4% previous
• EU Mar CPI, n.s.a 122.33,122.90 forecast,121.24 previous
• EU CPI (MoM)0.9%,0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous
• EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) 1.2%,0.8% forecast,0.9% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) 5.7%,5.7% forecast,5.6% previous
Looking ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Feb Personal Income (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
•12:30 US Feb Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 1.1% previous
•12:30 US Feb PCE price index (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
•12:30 US Feb PCE Price index (YoY) 5.1% forecast,5.4% previous
•12:30 US Feb Personal Spending (MoM) 0.3% forecast,1.8% previous
•12:30 US Feb Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.7% forecast,4.7% previous
•12:30 US Feb Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Jan GDP (MoM) 0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
•13:45 US Mar Chicago PMI 43.4 forecast,43.6 previous
•14:00 US Mar Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.8% forecast,4.1% previous
•14:00 US Mar Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.80% forecast, 2.90% previous
•14:00 US Mar Michigan Consumer Sentiment 63.2 forecast,63.4 previous
•14:00 US Mar Michigan Current Conditions 66.4 forecast,70.7 previous
•14:00 US Mar Michigan Consumer Expectations 61.5 forecast, 64.7 previous
•16:05 US Feb Dallas Fed PCE 6.30% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count593 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 758 previous
Looking Ahead Events And other Releases(GMT)
•15:00 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•19:05 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Friday after inflation in the euro zone dropped by the most on record in March but core price growth accelerated. Consumer prices in the euro zone rose by 6.9% in March after an 8.5% increase in February, implying the biggest drop since Eurostat started collecting data in 1991.But the fall was almost exclusively due to lower energy prices compared to March last year, when they had surged in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0904(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0971(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0824(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0769(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased versus the dollar on Friday as a murky economic outlook overshadowed data showing Britain’s economy avoided a recession in the final months of 2022.Despite meagre trading on Friday, the pound remains on track for its biggest monthly gain in four months of 3%, and a 2.4% quarterly gain. High inflation and worries about weak growth are still weighing on the pound, which was down 0.10% at $1.23740 by 1124 GMT. The pound meanwhile ticked up slightly against the euro to 87.97 pence.Data last week showed British inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% - over five times the Bank of England’s target rate of 2% and the highest among the Group of Seven rich nations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2374 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2429(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2295(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2193(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Friday ahead of key U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures data, due at 1230 GMT is awaited for further clues on the U.S. central bank’s next move. Three Fed officials kept the door open on Thursday to more rate hikes aimed at lowering high levels of inflation, with two noting banking sector problems could generate enough headwinds on the economy to help cool price pressures faster than expected. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9164(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9235(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9165(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9066(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday as investors kept their eyes peeled for U.S. inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's next move. Markets are waiting for U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation figures, tracked closely by the Federal Reserve, which are due at 1230 GMT.Economists polled expect the core PCE index to ease to 0.4% in February from January and stay broadly steady on an annual basis at 4.7%. The dollar drifted 0.36 % higher on the yen to 133.17 yen, set for a weekly gain. Strong resistance can be seen at 133.59 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.00(Psychologically level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 132.20(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 131.21(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares gained on Friday, the last trading session of a turbulent March, as waning fears of a banking crisis allowed investors to focus on U.S. inflation reports for fresh cues on interest rate moves.
At (GMT 12:08 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.26 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.42 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.49 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices were stable on Friday ahead of key U.S. inflation data which could give clues on future interest rate moves.
Brent futures, which have risen nearly 6% this week, were up 18 cents, or 0.2%, at $79.45 a barrel at 1041 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude was up 52 cents, or 0.7%, to $74.89, having gained about 8% so far this week.
Gold prices held steady on Friday, but the safe-haven metal was bound for its second straight quarterly gain after recent banking turmoil raised hopes of a less-aggressive U.S. Federal Reserve and shored up interest in bullion.
Spot gold was flat at $1,980.70 an ounce at 1108 GMT. U.S. gold futures were unchanged at $1,997.10.
Oil prices were stable on Friday ahead of key U.S. inflation data which could give clues on future interest rate moves
Brent futures, which have risen nearly 6% this week, were up 18 cents, or 0.2%, at $79.45 a barrel at 1041 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude was up 52 cents, or 0.7%, to $74.89, having gained about 8% so far this week.