Posted at 21 March 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Feb Car Registration (YoY) 26.2%,14.7% previous
•UK Feb Car Registration (MoM) -43.6%,2.7% previous
•French Feb Car Registration (YoY) 9.4%,8.8% previous
•German Feb Car Registration (MoM) 15.0%,-43.0% previous
•German Feb Car Registration (YoY) 2.8%,-2.6% previous
•French Feb Car Registration (MoM) 12.8%,-29.2% previous
•German Mar ZEW Economic Sentiment 10.0,16.0 forecast,29.7 previous
•German Mar ZEW Current Conditions -46.5,-44.3 forecast,-45.1 previous
•German Mar ZEW Economic Sentiment 13.0,17.1 forecast,28.1 previous
•Canada Feb Core CPI (MoM) 0.5% ,0.3% previous
•Canada Feb Core CPI (YoY) 4.7%, 4.8%,5.0% previous
•Canada Feb CPI (YoY) 5.2% ,5.4% forecast,5.9% previous
•Canada Feb CPI (MoM) 0.4% ,0.5% forecast,0.5% previous
•Canada Feb Common CPI (YoY) 6.4% ,6.5% forecast,6.6% previous
•Canada Feb Median CPI (YoY) 4.9% ,4.8% forecast,5.0% previous
•Canada Feb Trimmed CPI (YoY) 4.8% ,4.9% forecast,5.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 2.6% previous
•14:00 US Feb Existing Home Sales (MoM 5.0% forecast,-0.7% previous
•14:00 US Existing Home Sales 4.19M forecast,4.00M previous
•15:00 New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:30 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•13:30 EU ECB's Enria Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro gained on Tuesday as investors turned their attention from the banking crisis to the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting later and after a wild few sessions, U.S. interest rate futures pricing implies that a peak in rates is imminent. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 16.6% chance that the Fed will stand pat at the end of its March 21-22 meeting, with a 83.4% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) hike. The euro strengthened to trade at 1.0780 after pulling back from daily low .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0797 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0827(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0713(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0669(5DMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased against the dollar on Tuesday as traders reckoned banking stress would keep the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England from hiking rates much further, or at all, later in the week. Investors remained concerned over the fate of the banking sector after U.S. lender First Republic shares tumbled nearly 50% on Monday on fears it will need a second rescue. With UK inflation data on Wednesday expected to show some easing and amid the global financial market instability, money markets are now pricing in a 50% chance of no interest rate hike by the BoE on Thursday and the same chance of a 25 basis-point increase. Sterling fell 0.35% to $1.2234. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2305 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2338(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2216(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2173(5DMA).
USD/CHF: The dollar initially gained against the Swiss franc on Tuesday but reversed course as traders tiptoed back into riskier assets after UBS’ state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse allayed some fears of a widespread, systemic banking crisis.Market sentiment remained fragile, however, as investors struggled to determine the scale of the ramifications from a sector hit that began with Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. The next focus for investors is the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve on whether and by how much to raise interest rates when it concludes its two-day meeting. The dollar was down 0.54% to 0.9236 against the Swiss franc. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9280(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9317(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9210(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9141(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Tuesday as fears of an imminent global banking meltdown eased, while a slight rise in the dollar kept a lid on currencies ahead of a key U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting. The rescue of Credit Suisse over the weekend helped stem a brutal selling in bank shares, and came just in time for the Fed's two-day meeting that commences later in the day. U.S. interest rate futures pricing now implies a 25-basis-points rate hike on Wednesday - a dramatic turnaround from a steep 50 bps rate hike expected before the banking crisis. Strong resistance can be seen at 132.58(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 133.00 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 130.66(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 12976(Feb 10th low).
Equities Recap
European shares rose nearly 1% on Tuesday, with banking stocks leading the recovery following a raft of measures to stabilise the sector, while investors hoped for less-aggressive moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve at its policy meeting this week.
At (GMT 12:41 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.68 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.83 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.77 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold continued to decline for the second day on Tuesday after rising above $2,000 an ounce in the last session, as investors turned their attention from the banking crisis to the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $1,966.30 per ounce, as of 1149 GMT, while U.S. gold futures slipped 0.6% to $1,971.10.
Oil rose on Tuesday, extending a recovery from a 15-month low hit the previous day, as the rescue of Credit Suisse eased worries about global banking sector risks that could hit economic growth and reduce fuel demand.
Brent crude was up 46 cents, or 0.6%, at $74.25 per barrel at 1141 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.79.