Posted at 11 March 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Brent, WTI down more than 3% this week
•U.S. rate hike worries dominate market mood
Saudi Arabia, Iran re-establish ties
•Canada Feb Part Time Employment Change -9.3K,28.9K previous
•Canada Capacity Utilization Rate (Q4) 81.7%,82.6% previous
•Canada Feb Full Employment Change 31.1K,121.1K previous
•Canada Feb Unemployment Rate 5.0%, 5.1% forecast,5.0% previous
•Canada Feb Participation Rate65.7%, 65.7% previous
•Canada Feb Employment Change 21.8K, 10.0K forecast,150.0K previous
•US Feb Unemployment Rate 3.6%, 3.4% forecast,3.4% previous
•US Feb Nonfarm Payrolls 311K, 205K forecast,517K previous
•US Feb Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.6%, 4.7% forecast,4.4% previous
•US Feb Participation Rate 62.5%, 62.4% previous
•US Feb U6 Unemployment Rate 6.8%,6.6% previous
•US Feb Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Private Nonfarm Payrolls 265K, 210K forecast,443K previous
•US Feb Manufacturing Payrolls -4K,12K forecast,19K previous
•US Feb Government Payrolls 46.0K, 74.0K previous
•US Feb Average Weekly Hours 34.5, 34.6 forecast,34.7 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 590,592 previous
•US Feb Federal Budget Balance -262.0B, -256.0Bforecast,-39.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Friday after mixed U.S. labour market showed more robust payrolls growth, but a rise in the unemployment rate, while wage inflation showed signs of cooling. The closely watched non-farm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy added jobs at a solid pace in February, average hourly earnings rose 0.2% last month after gaining 0.3% in January, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.6%.The dollar slumped 0.9% after the data as odds for a 50-basis point hike from the Fed this month fell. The euro rose 0.57% to $1.064 on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0691 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0764(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0597 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0516 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against a softer dollar on Friday after upbeat UK GDP data and mixed US jobs data boosted boosted sterling. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said Britain's economy expanded 0.3% month-on-month, after a drop of 0.5% in December - a reading that is likely to further allay recession fears, at least in the short term.A poll of economists had pointed to growth of 0.1%. The U.S. economy added a consensus-beating 311,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher, along with the labor market participation rate.Hourly wage growth cooled on a monthly basis, but gained some heat year-on-year, albeit not as much as economists predicted. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2116(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2171(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1977(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1926(5DMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was barely changed against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, holding near a five-month low, as the failure of SVB Financial Group spooked investors, offsetting stronger-than-expected domestic jobs data. The Canadian economy beat expectations by adding 21,800 jobs in February, putting pressure on the Bank of Canada to consider another rate hike after saying it wanted to end its year-long tightening campaign.On Wednesday, the BoC left its benchmark rate on hold at a 15-year high of 4.50%.The loonie was trading nearly unchanged 1.3830 to the greenback, or 72.31 U.S. cents, after earlier touching its weakest since Oct. 17 at 1.3861. For the week, the currency was down 1.7%, its biggest weekly decline since September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3858(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3903 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3763 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3663(9DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against yen on Friday after the U.S. unemployment report for February showed inflation pressures were easing. The U.S. economy added jobs at a brisk clip in February, but slower wage growth and a rise in the unemployment rate prompted financial markets to dial back expectations for a 50-basis point rate hike when Fed policymakers meet in two weeks.Congressional testimony earlier in the week by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was seen as hawkish and strengthened the dollar as Treasuries pay more in yield than other government debt.The dollar slid against all major currencies, but was essentially flat against the Canadian dollar. The dollar index , a basket of trading currencies, fell 0.618%. The Japanese yen strengthened 1.01% to 134.79 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 135.02(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 136.17(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.48 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 131.70(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slid to a seven-week low on Friday as financial stocks led a broader market rout after a warning from a U.S. bank triggered worries over the sector's balance sheet resilience in the face of rising interest rates.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.67 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.31 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.30percent.
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower and Treasury yields extended their slide on Friday over fears of contagion in the financial sector and strong February employment data showing the economy added more jobs than expected.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.07% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.45 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.76 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. two-year Treasury yields saw the biggest drop since the 2008 financial crisis on Friday as yields across the curve plummeted after the February payrolls report, while investors continued to be risk-averse as they assessed possible ramifications from troubles in the banking sector.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 22.6 basis points at 3.697%. The yield was poised for its largest one-day drop since November 10.The two-year .U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 30.3 basis points at 4.597%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices jumped nearly 2% on Friday, driven by a slide in U.S. Treasury yields and broader financial markets as worries over a fallout in the banking sector eclipsed a strong U.S. jobs report and drove safe-haven flows into bullion.
Spot gold was up 1.8% at $1,863.46 per ounce by 2:26 p.m. ET (1926 GMT), its highest since Feb. 14. U.S. gold futures also rose 1.8% to settle at $1,867.20 per ounce.
Oil prices climbed more than 1% on Friday after better-than-expected U.S. employment data, though both benchmarks fell more than 3% on the week on U.S. interest rate hike jitters.
Brent rose $1.19, or 1.5%, to $82.78 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 96 cents, or 1.3%, at $76.68.