Posted at 08 March 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Jan Industrial Production (MoM) 3.5%, 1.4% forecast,-3.1% previous
•Finnish Jan Trade Balance -0.40B, -0.48B previous
•German Jan Retail Sales (YoY)-6.9%,-6.1% forecast, -6.4% previous
•German Jan Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3%, 2.0% forecast,-5.3% previous
•Italian Jan Retail Sales (YoY) 6.2%,3.4% previous
•Italian Jan Retail Sales (MoM) 1.7%,-0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q4)0.0%,0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
•EU Employment Overall (Q4) 165,041.5K,165,072.7K previous
•EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q4)1.5%,1.7% forecast, .8% previous
•EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4)0.3%,0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q4)1.8%,1.9% forecast,2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic data(GMT)
•12:45 US Feb ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 200K forecast,106K previous
•13:30 US Exports 250.20B previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Imports 63.13B previous
•13:30 US Imports 317.60B previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Exports 62.97B previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Trade Balance -0.06B forecast,-0.16B previous
•13:30 US Jan Trade Balance -68.90B forecast,-67.40B previous
•15:00 US Jan JOLTs Job Openings 10.500M forecast,11.012M previous
•15:00 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 4.50% forecast,4.50% previous
Looking Ahead Events and other Releases (GMT)
•15:00 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
•15:00 Canada BoC Rate Statement
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro declined against the dollar on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that U.S. interest rates might need to go up even faster and higher than expected to rein in stubborn inflation. Powell told lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Tuesday that recent U.S. economic data was stronger than expected and so the speed and size of future hikes may also need to increase, which sent short-term U.S. rate expectations surging. Traders have a laser-focus on Friday's U.S. payrolls data and next week's inflation figures. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0596 (9DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0699(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0521 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0490(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling held near recent lows on Wednesday as dollar strengthened after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said interest rates would likely need to rise more than expected. Markets now price in an almost 70% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike at the Fed's March 21-22 policy meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool, up from about 30% a day ago.After a series of jumbo hikes last year, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points last month. The U.S. dollar index rose as much as 0.2% to a more than 3-month high of 105.88, having jumped by 1.3% on Tuesday, its biggest daily increase since Sep. 23, 2022 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2061(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2150(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1986(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1924(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell boosted greenback across the board. Futures imply U.S. rates peaking above 5.6% and holding above 5.5% through 2023. The Fed will likely need to raise rates more than expected in response to recent strong data and is prepared to move in larger steps if the “totality” of incoming information suggests tougher measures are needed to control inflation, Powell said on the first day of his semi-annual two-day testimony before Congress. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9459 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9470(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9394(9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9374(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Wednesday after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell raised the possibility of the U.S. central bank returning to large rate hikes to tackle sticky inflation.Powell, during testimony to Congress overnight, flagged that a string of stronger-than-expected economic data indicated that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated. Central banks globally will now look to further monetary policy tightening to rein in sticky inflation. The U.S. dollar broke above its 200-day-moving average against the yen for the first time this year, rising as far as 0.5% to a nearly three-month high of 137.9 yen . Strong resistance can be seen at 138.14(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 138.96(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 136.40 (9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 135.90(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled more aggressive rate hikes were in the offing, while the chemicals sector led declines on news of a Swiss antitrust probe into key fragrance companies.
At (GMT 12:43 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.15 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.15 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices steadied after earlier losses on Wednesday, driven by fears that more aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes would hit demand, while the market awaited further clarity on inventories.
Brent crude futures climbed 11 cents, or 0.1%, to $83.40 per barrel by 1103 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures eased 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $77.49 a barrel.
Gold prices hovered near a one-week low on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that U.S. interest rates might need to go higher than expected to control sticky inflation.
Spot gold was flat at $1,813.70 per ounce by 1056 GMT, after hitting its lowest since Feb. 28 at $1,809.27 earlier in the session. Following Powell’s remarks on Tuesday, prices dropped nearly 2%.