Posted at 02 March 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•EU CPI (MoM) 0.8%,-0.2% previous
•French 10-Year OAT Auction 3.20%,2.68% previous
•EU Core CPI (MoM) 0.8%,-0.8% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY)5.6% ,5.3% forecast, 5.3% previous
•EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) 0.9%,-0.4% previous
•EU Jan Unemployment Rate 6.7%,6.6% forecast,6.6% previous
•Italian Feb CPI (MoM) 0.3%,1.4% forecast,0.1% previous
•EU Feb HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 7.4%,6.9% forecast,7.1% previous
•Greek Jan Unemployment Rate 10.8%, 11.6% previous
•EU Feb CPI (YoY) 8.5%, 8.2% forecast,8.6% previous
•Italian Feb CPI (YoY) 9.2%,8.8% forecast,10.0% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,665K forecast,1,654K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 191.25K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 195K forecast,192K previous
•13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4)2.6% forecast,1.4% previous
•13:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) 1.6% forecast,2.0% previou
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -75B forecast,-71B previous
•16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.515% previous
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.660% previous
Looking Ahead – Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•21:00 US Fed Waller Speaks
•23:00 US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro fell against the dollar on Thursday after data showed inflation in the euro zone was not as high as investors had feared based on national readings in recent days.Euro zone inflation eased to 8.5% in February from 8.6% a month earlier on lower energy prices, but still came in above a predicted 8.2% in a poll of economists. The euro was 0.5% lower against the dollar at $1.0618.Investors now see the ECB's 2.5% deposit rate rising by a combined 100 basis points in March and May, then to around 4.1% at the turn of the year. Markets have priced in an extra 50 basis points of hikes in just the past month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0681 (21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0786 (23.6%fib ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0574 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0537(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Thursday as the dollar rallied and speculation grew that the Bank of England may not hike interest rates any further. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday raised the prospect that the central bank might not need to raise interest rates again, after hiking them to 4% from just 0.1% in December 2021. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s deal with the European Union over Northern Ireland briefly boosted sterling, but it nonetheless dropped 2.4% in February, its worst month since September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2054(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2102(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1932(9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1883 (Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Thursday after a slew of economic data added to investor concerns that interest rates globally could stay higher for longer than expected.Data on Wednesday showed U.S. manufacturing contracted for a fourth straight month in February, but there were signs that factory activity was starting to stabilise, with a measure of new orders pulling back from a more than 2-1/2-year low.Fed policymakers will provide updated projections on the U.S. central bank’s monetary policy path at the end of their March 21-22 meeting.Money markets expect the Fed’s target rate to peak at 5.488% in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9415 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9443(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9343(50%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9308(9DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar strenthed against yen on Thursday as greenback was boosted by comments from a senior Federal Reserve official suggesting that a 50 basis point rate hike later this month is a possibility. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Wednesday he was "open-minded" on either a 25 basis point or a 50 basis point rate hike at the U.S. central bank's next meeting. It comes after the dollar climbed 2.8% in February on the back of strong economic data. Investors will be watching U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data due at 1330 GMT. Strong resistance can be seen at 137.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 138.16(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 135.96 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 135.59 (9DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Thursday after euro zone inflation data suggested that prices remained stubbornly high, bolstering views that the European Central Bank will stick to raising interest rates at a brisk pace.
At (GMT 13:15 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.29 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.15 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Thursday as the dollar firmed, with a fresh set of economic data cementing investor worries that global interest rates would stay higher for longer than expected.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,831.90 per ounce, as of 0714 GMT, after hitting a one-week peak on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,838.50.
Oil edged higher on Thursday, though gains made on signs of a strong economic rebound in top crude importer China were kept in check by fears over the impact of potnetial increases to European interest rates.
Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.51%, to $84.74 a barrel by 1017 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 45 cents, or 0.58%, at $78.14.