Posted at 28 February 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.0%, 0.7% previous
•Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q4) -0.70%,-1.40% previous
•Canada GDP (YoY) (Q4) 2.07%,3.00 % previous
•Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q4) 0.0%,1.5% forecast,2.9% previous
•US Jan Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.2% , 0.4% previous
•US Jan Goods Trade Balance-91.50B, -89.67B previous
•Canada Dec GDP (MoM) -0.1%, 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•US Dec S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 4.6%,5.8% forecast,6.8% previous
•US Dec House Price Index (YoY) 6.6%,8.2% previous
•US Dec House Price Index 392.1, 392.3 previous
•US Dec House Price Index (MoM) -0.1%, -0.2% forecast,-0.1% previous
•US Dec S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) -0.9%, -0.8% previous
•US Dec S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) -0.5%,-0.5% forecast,-0.5% previous
•US Feb Chicago PMI 43.6, 45.0 forecast,44.3 previous
•US Feb Richmond Manufacturing Index -16,-6 forecast,-11 previous
•US Feb CB Consumer Confidence 102.9 ,108.5 forecast, 107.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•00:30 Australia GDP Final Consumption (Q4)0.8% previous
•00:30 Australia GDP (YoY) (Q4) 2.7% forecast,5.9% previous
•00:30 Australia GDP Capital Expenditure (Q4) -0.2% previous
•00:30 Australia GDP Chain Price Index (Q4) 0.2% previous
•00:30 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.8% forecast,0.6% previous
Looking Events and Other Resealses (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the dollar on Tuesday as fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep raising interest rates boosted dollar.Euro has earlier strengthened on surprisingly hot inflation data from France and Spain boosted euro. French annual inflation rose unexpectedly to 7.2% in February from 7.0% in January. Spain’s consumer prices rose 6.1% year-on-year in February, a faster pace than the 5.9% during the 12 months to January and above the 5.7% expected by analysts polled. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0613(9DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0738 (23.6%fib ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0521 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0492(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound held steady on Tuesday, retaining gains overnight after Britain struck a new trade deal with the European Union, which brightened the outlook for the post-Brexit UK economy and signalled improved relations between London and the bloc. Britain and the EU on Monday announced a new deal for post-Brexit trading arrangements for Northern Ireland, known as the Windsor Framework, which British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said would pave the way for a new chapter in London’s relationship with Brussels. Sterling jumped on the back of the news to clock a 1% gain in the previous session, and rose to a high of $1.2069 on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2047(14DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2164(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1995(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1901 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday after the release of disappointing GDP data that reinforced investor bets for the Bank of Canada to leave its benchmark interest rate on hold in a policy decision next week.The Canadian economy recorded zero growth in the final three months of 2022, massively underperforming expectations, though economic activity likely rebounded with a 0.3% increase in January. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, rallied as hopes for a solid economic rebound in China offset worries about further U.S. interest rate hikes. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3625 to the greenback, or 73.39 U.S. cents, but stopping short of the seven-week low it hit on Friday at 1.3665. For the month, it was down 2.3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3676 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3702 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3598 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3558 (9 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against yen on Tuesday on views that interest rates will stay elevated for some time as inflation remains stubbornly high, while recession fears kept investors on edge. Recent upbeat data, such as a blockbuster employment report for January, helped the greenback rally in February on expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates higher and longer than the market had earlier anticipated to fight inflation. The market awaits employment data for February on March 10 and the consumer price index on March 14, both of which could influence the Fed's interest rate policy. The dollar earlier climbed to 136.93 yen, before reversing its gains. The dollar was last trading against the yen at 136.124.Strong resistance can be seen at 136.93(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 137.59(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 135.07 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 134.49(14DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Tuesday after data from France and Spain pointed to inflation being stickier than feared, but still ended their second straight month higher supported by sharp gains in rate-sensitive banking stocks.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.74percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.38 percent.
U.S. stocks closed out February in subdued fashion and each of the three major indexes ended with monthly declines, as investors continue to assess whether interest rates will remain high for an extended period of time.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.71% percent, S&P 500 closed downby 0.30% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.10% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields traded little changed on Tuesday as the market awaits data on consumer prices and the labor market in the coming weeks to better gauge the pace of inflation and how long the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher.
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes hit a fresh 11-week high of 3.983%, while the rates-sensitive two-year note rose close to an almost four-month high before easing to trade almost flat.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices on Tuesday were headed for their biggest monthly decline since June 2021 as a stronger dollar and fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep raising interest rates weighed on the non-yielding asset’s appeal.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,828.28 per ounce by 2:02 p.m. ET (1902 GMT), having earlier hit its lowest since late December at $1,804.20. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.7% to settle at $1,836.70.
Oil prices rose nearly 2% on Tuesday, erasing the previous session's losses, as hopes for a strong economic rebound in China offset worries about U.S. interest rate hikes dragging down consumption in the world's biggest economy.
Brent crude futures for April , which expired on Tuesday, settled higher by $1.44, or 1.8%, at $83.89 a barrel. The more active May contract rose $1.41, or 1.7%, to $83.45.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.37, or 1.8%, to $77.05 a barrel.