Posted at 28 February 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Core capital goods orders increase 0.8% in January
•US Core capital goods shipments surge 1.1%
•US Durable goods orders drop 4.5% on aircraft
•US Pending home sales increase 8.1% in January
•US Jan Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.7%, 0.1% forecast,-0.2% previous
•US Jan Durable Goods Orders (MoM) -4.5%,-4.0% forecast,5.6% previous
•US Jan Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.8%,-0.1% previous
•US Jan Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -5.1%,6.2% previous
•Canada Current Account (Q4) -10.6B,-11.0B forecast,-11.1B previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.928%, 2.906% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.690%,2.693% previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.240%,3.132% previous
•US Jan Pending Home Sales Index 82.5 , 76.9 previous
•US Jan Pending Home Sales (MoM) 8.1%,1.0% forecast,2.5% previous
•US Feb Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index-13.5, -8.4 previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.750%,4.720% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction4.940%, 4.915% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:00 New Zealand Feb ANZ Business Confidence -52.0 previous
•00:00 New Zealand Feb NBNZ Own Activity -15.8% previous
•00:30 Australia Jan Private Sector Credit (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•00:30 Australia Jan Housing Credit 0.3% previous
•00:30 Australia Net Exports Contribution (Q4) 1.3% forecast, -0.2% previous
•00:30 Australia Current Account (Q4) 6.5B forecast,-2.3B previous
•00:30 Australia Jan Retail Sales (MoM) 1.5% forecast,-3.9% previous
•05:00 Japan Jan Construction Orders (YoY) 8.5% previous
•05:00 Japan Housing Starts (YoY) 1.0% forecast,-1.7%revious
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as dollar pulled back ahead for the release of jobs data and consumer prices for February. The market awaits this month's data for U.S. unemployment on March 10 and the consumer price index on March 14, both of which will influence Federal Reserve policy on interest rates and the central bank's efforts to slow inflation to its target pace. Investors will get more information on the state of the global economy this week, with U.S. ISM manufacturing and services survey data for February due on Wednesday and Friday .The euro rose 0.58% to $1.0607. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0592(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0623(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0537(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0496(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the dollar on Monday after British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a deal with the European Union to amend the original Northern Ireland Protocol. The deal is aimed at solving tensions caused by 2020 post-Brexit arrangements governing the British province and its open border with EU member Ireland.Sterling rose 0.76% against the U.S. dollar to $1.2030, after slipping to an almost two month low against the greenback in earlier trading. It is still set for its first monthly decline against the dollar since September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2165 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2273(Feb 14th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2025(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1987(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, with the currency clawing back some recent declines as equity markets rebounded and ahead of GDP data this week that could guide expectations for the Bank of Canada. Canadian gross domestic product data for the fourth quarter, due on Tuesday, is expected to show that the economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.5%. December GDP data is also due which could include an advanced estimate for January. The loonie was up 0.3% at 1.3575 to the greenback , after trading in a range of 1.3535 to 1.3624. On Friday, it touched a seven-week low at 1.3665.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3620 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3659(Feb 24th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3575(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3548 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped slightly against yen on Monday as dollar pulled back as investors prepared for higher interest rates in the United States and Europe. The dollar's decline was exacerbated by a higher-than-expected drop in U.S. durable goods of 4.5% last month, reversing a huge December boost from Boeing. These so-called durable goods orders increased 5.1% in December. The report dented some of the hawkishness built into U.S. interest rates, though they are expected to remain higher for longer.The Japanese yen strengthened 0.20% versus the greenback at 136.27. Strong resistance can be seen at 136.79(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 137.52 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 135.85(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 135.01(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Europe's STOXX 600 rose on Monday, supported by gains across all major sectors, rebounding from its biggest weekly drop of 2023 on fears of more U.S. and euro zone interest rate hikes.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0. 72 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.13 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.51 percent.
Wall Street and global shares rebounded modestly on Monday on favorable economic data and bargain hunting, but remained within sight of recent six-week lows, as investors prepared for higher interest rates in the United States and Europe.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.22 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.31 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.63 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields declined on Monday as some investors saw recent weakness in U.S. government bonds as a buying opportunity, but fears of higher interest rates continued to be a top concern.
U.S. Treasury 10-year yields were last seen at 3.921%, down nearly three basis points from Friday.Two-year yields, which more closely track investor expectations on the path of interest rates, were about one point lower at 4.792%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices ticked up on Monday as the dollar retreated, although worries of further interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve kept bullion near a two-month low.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,817.69 an ounce by 1:45 p.m. ET (1845 GMT). U.S. gold futures were up 0.4% to settle at $1,824.90.
Oil prices slid about 1% on Monday as strong U.S. economic data had investors bracing for more interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve to fight inflation, which could slow economic growth and oil demand.
Brent futures fell 71 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $82.45 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 64 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $75.68.