Posted at 24 February 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)-0.4% ,-0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•German GDP (YoY) (Q4)0.3%,0.5% forecast,0.5% previous
•GfK Mar German Consumer Climate -30.5,-30.4 forecast,-33.9 previous
•Swiss Employment Level (Q4) 5.398M,5.362M previous
Looking Ahead Economic data (GMT)
•13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) -0.8% previous
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM)-1.5% previous
•13:30 US Jan Personal Income (MoM) 1.0% forecast,0.2% previous
•13:30 US Jan Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.3% forecast,4.4% previous
•13:30 US Jan PCE price index (MoM) 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Jan Personal Spending (MoM) 1.3% forecast,-0.2% previous
•13:30 US Jan Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
•13:30 US Jan Real Personal Consumption (MoM) -0.3% previous
•13:30 US Jan PCE Price index (YoY) 5.0% previous
•15:00 US Jan New Home Sales 620K forecast,616K previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan Current Conditions 72.6 forecast,68.4 previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan Consumer Sentiment 66.4 forecast,64.9 previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.2% forecast,3.9% previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.90% previous
•15:00 US Jan New Home Sales (MoM) 2.3% previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan Consumer Expectations 62.3 forecast, 62.7 previous
•16:00 Canada Dec Budget Balance (YoY) -3.55B previous
•16:00 Canada Dec Budget Balance -3.38B previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•15:15 US Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks
•15:15 US FOMC Member Mester Speaks
•16:30 UK MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Friday after data showed German economy shrinks 0.4% in fourth quarter. The German economy shrank by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous three months, while preliminary data had pointed to a 0.2% contraction. Investors are waiting for the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for January due at 1330 GMT one of the key inflation measures tracked by the Federal Reserve for monetary policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0623(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0726(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0527(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0465(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Friday as investors braced for U.S. interest rates to be higher for longer after a set of strong U.S. economic data. Strong U.S. jobs data and rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials this month about openness to higher rates if needed in the fight against inflation have resulted in the dollar erasing its year to date losses.The market is pricing U.S. rates to peak in July at 5.35% and remain above 5% until the end of the year.The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, was 0.1% higher at 104.71, hovering around the near seven-week high of 104.78 it touched on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2023(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2130(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1939(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1873(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Friday as traders awaited economic data due later in the day to gauge the Federal Reserve's rate-hike stance. Data on Thursday showed U.S. GDP increased at a revised 2.7% annualized rate last quarter, while new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week. Separately, data showed fourth-quarter personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.7%, revised up from a previous estimate of 3.2%.Thursday’s reports are the latest in a flurry of data that have fuelled concerns that interest rates would stay higher for longer.The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE data for January, is due at 1330 GMT and will be closely watched. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9338 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9405(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9304(5DMA ), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9258(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against yen on Friday as the incoming Bank of Japan chief ruled out an early end to its super-easy monetary policy. Incoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday the central bank must maintain ultra-low interest rates to support the fragile economy, warning of the dangers of responding to cost-driven inflation with monetary tightening. On The date front, Japan's core consumer inflation hit a fresh 41-year high in January as companies passed on higher costs to households, data showed on Friday. Strong resistance can be seen at 135.85(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 136.35 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.90(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 134.16(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday, lifted by upbeat earnings from French giant Saint-Gobain and Sweden's Elekta, even as traders worldwide were on tenterhooks ahead of U.S. inflation data that should also give clues on the country's future policy path.
At (GMT 13:25 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.67 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.53 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices headed for another weekly fall on Friday, holding near last session’s two-month lows as prospects of more interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve dimmed bullion’s appeal amid a slew of strong economic data.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,821.99 per ounce by 1123 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,829.70.
Oil prices extended gains for a second session on Friday as the prospect of lower exports from Russia offset rising inventories in the United States and concerns over global economic activity.
Brent crude futures rose 80 cents, or 1%, to $83.01 per barrel by 1245 GMT. On the anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, benchmark Brent crude prices were some 14% lower than a year earlier. They hit a 14-year high of nearly $128 a barrel on Mar. 8, 2022.