Posted at 16 February 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italian Dec Trade Balance 1.067B, 1.400B forecast,1.445B previous
•Italian Dec Trade Balance EU -2.93B,-0.37B previous
•Spanish Trade Balance -4.51B, -3.31B previous
•Irish Jan HICP (MoM) -1.0%, -0.2% previous
•Irish Jan Irish CPI (YoY) 7.8%, 8.2% previous
•Irish Jan HICP (YoY) 7.5%, 8.2% previous
•French 3-Year BTAN Auction 2.82%,2.56% previous
•French 5-Year BTAN Auction 2.76%,2.32% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 200K forecast,196K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,695K forecast,1,688K previous
•13:30 US Jan PPI (MoM) 0.4% forecast,-0.4% previous
•13:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 189.25K previous
•13:30 US Jan PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 4.6% previous
•13:30 US Jan PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Feb Philly Fed CAPEX Index 10.50 previous
•13:30 US Feb Philly Fed Employment 10.9 previous
•13:30 US Feb Philly Fed Prices Paid 24.50 previous
•13:30 US Feb Philly Fed New Orders -10.9 previous
•13:30 US Jan Housing Starts 1.360M forecast,1.382M previous
•13:30 US Jan Building Permits 1.350M forecast,1.337M previous
•13:30 US Feb Philly Fed Business Conditions 4.9 previous
•13:30 US Jan Building Permits (MoM) -1.0% previous
•13:30 USD Jan Core PPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.1% previous
•13:30 US Jan PPI (YoY) 5.4% forecast, 6.2% previous
•13:30 US Jan Core PPI (YoY) 4.9% forecast,5.5% previous
•13:30 US Jan Housing Starts (MoM) -1.4% previous
•13:30 US Feb Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -7.4 forecast,-8.9 previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -109B forecast,-217B previous
Looking Ahead Events and other Releases (GMT)
•16:00 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
•16:00 Canada BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
•17:00 UK BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
•18:30 US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
•19:45 EU ECB's De Guindos Speaks
•21:00 US Fed Governor Cook Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Thursday as dollar pulled backed slight, although gains were kept in check prospects of more interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Strong retail sales numbers on Wednesday, after Tuesday’s data showing stubbornly high U.S. inflation for last month, have reinforced concern that the Fed would keep interest rates higher for longer given a resilient American economy. Several Fed policymakers this week have signalled that more increases are needed to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0748(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0815(9DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0678(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0637(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the dollar on Thursday after a deep slump a day earlier as Britain's softer-than-feared inflation eased tightening pressures from the Bank of England (BoE).The pound was about flat against the euro at 88.80 pence, after recording its biggest daily drop against the single currency in two months on Wednesday when data showed UK consumer price inflation (CPI) cooled to 10.1% last month, the lowest reading since September. Against the dollar, sterling edged up 0.13% to $1.2054, after falling more than 1% versus the greenback on Wednesday.The better-than expected inflation figures weakened the pound amid boosted expectations that the BoE may be set to end its interest rate hiking cycle.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2103(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2164(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2016(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1982(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Thursday as the dollar pulled back, although prospects of more interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve kept investors on edge. Data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed on Wednesday that retail sales in the United States rebounded sharply in January.That came just a day after U.S. inflation figures showed consumer prices slowing, but still sticky. Data from earlier this month also showed that U.S. job growth accelerated sharply in January, pointing to a resilient economy.However, the question for market watchers is how well can the economy continue to hold up, especially as rates head much higher than many originally thought. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9240 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9287(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9166 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9108(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Thursday after U.S. retail sales data for January rose by the most in nearly two years, suggesting a resilient economy while fueling concerns about further interest rate hikes. U.S. retail sales rebounded by 3% in January after two straight monthly declines, data showed on Wednesday, pointing to the economy’s continued resilience despite higher borrowing costs.On Tuesday, data showed the U.S. consumer price index increased 0.5% last month, while in the 12 months through January, the CPI increased 6.4%.Interest rate futures markets are now expecting the Fed’s target rate to peak above 5.2% in July, from a current range of 4.50% to 4.75%. Strong resistance can be seen at 134.12(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.97 (50%fib%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 133.01(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 132.44(5DMA)
Equities Recap
European shares rose higher on Thursday on a boost from Airbus that also lifted France's blue-chip index close to a record high, while miners led sectoral gainers as prices of commodities rose.
At (GMT 13:12 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.11 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.21 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.11 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were steady on Thursday due to a slight pullback in the dollar and bond yields, although gains were kept in check by evidence of a resilient U.S. economy that could offer room for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further.
Spot gold held its ground at $1,837.50 per ounce by 1056 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since early January on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% at $1,847.60.
Oil prices fluctuated in a narrow range on Thursday as it weighed a large build in U.S. crude inventories and hopes for a Chinese demand recovery.
Brent crude futures were flat on the day at $85.38 a barrel by 1252 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 7 cents, or 0.09%, at $78.66.