Posted at 15 February 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Jan Retail Control (MoM ) 1.7%,0.8% forecast,-0.7% previous
•Canada Dec Wholesale Sales (MoM) -0.8%,-1.8% forecast,0.5% previous
•US Retail Jan Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 2.6%, -0.7% previous
•US Jan Retail Sales (MoM) 3.0%,1.8%forecast,-1.1% previous
•US Jan Core Retail Sales (MoM) 2.3%,0.8% forecast,-1.1% previous
•US Feb NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -5.80, -18.00 forecast,-32.90 previous
•US Jan Retail Sales (YoY) 6.38%,6.02% previous
•Canadian Dec Manufacturing Sales (MoM ) -1.5%,-1.8% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Jan Industrial Production (YoY) 0.79%, 1.65% previous
•US Jun Manufacturing Production (MoM) 1.0%, 0.8%forecast,-1.3% previous
•US Jan Capacity Utilization Rate 78.3%, 79.0% forecast,78.8% previous
•US Jan Industrial Production (MoM) 0.0%, 0.5% forecast,-0.7% previous
•US Dec Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, -0.3% previous
•US Dec Business Inventories (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
• USD NAHB Housing Market Index 42, 37 forecat,35 previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories 16.283M, 1.166M forecast, 2.423M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:50 Japan Jan Trade Balance -3,871.5B forecast, -1,451.8B previous
•23:50 Japan Jan Exports (YoY) 0.8% forecast, 11.5% previous
•23:50 Japan Jan Adjusted Trade Balance -2.35T forecast,-1.72T previous
•00:00 Australia MI Inflation Expectations 5.6% previous
•00:30 Australia Jan Employment Change 20.0K forecast,-14.6K previous
•00:30 Australia Jan Unemployment Rate 3.5% forecast, 3.5% previous
•00:30 Australia Jan Full Employment Change 17.6K previous
•00:30 Australia Jan Participation Rate 66.6% forecast,66.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And other Releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Wednesday as the dollar after data showed U.S. retail sales in January increased by the most in nearly two years, prompting concerns about continued interest rate hikes. The Commerce Department said retail sales surged 3.0% last month, in the largest increase since March 2021, after declining by an unrevised 1.1% in December. Paired with Tuesday’s data, which showed a monthly inflation pick-up in January, evidence of an increase in consumer spending fueled worries the Fed would need to keep increasing rates for longer than some investors had hoped to tame inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0748(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0815(9DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0678(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0637(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell against dollar on Wednesday after data showed British consumer price inflation fell by more than expected in January. British consumer price inflation fell by more than expected to 10.1% in January from December's 10.5% and there were also drops in underlying measures of inflation that are being closely watched by the Bank of England, official data showed. Economists polled had forecast that the annual CPI rate would drop to 10.3% in January, moving further away from October's 41-year high of 11.1% .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2103(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2164(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2030(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1982(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar fell against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as the prospect of additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve weighed on investor sentiment and domestic data showed weakening in the housing market. U.S. crude prices settled down 0.6% at $78.59 a barrel, while the Canadian dollar was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3390 to the greenback, or 74.68 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest level since Friday at 1.3440.Canadian home sales fell 3% in January from December and were down 37.1% on an annual basis after a rapid increase in borrowing costs since March last year. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3390 to the greenback after touching its weakest level since Friday at 1.3440.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3407(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3460(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3354(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3303 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Wednesday after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data, which could offer more room for the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates. U.S. retail sales rose 3% in January over the previous month, highlighting economic resilience despite higher borrowing costs. This comes after data on Tuesday showed the U.S. consumer price index had increased year-on-year by 6.4%. That was down from 6.5% in December, but above the 6.2% estimated by economists. Markets are now pricing a peak above 5.2% and traders are becoming less sure that cuts are coming in 2023. Rates currently stand at 4.5% to 4.75%. Strong resistance can be seen at 133.24(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.86 (Jan 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 132.98(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 131.96 (23.6%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares ended higher on Wednesday, as gains in luxury firms pushed France's blue-chip index close to its record high level, offseting concerns that strong U.S. data would pave the way for further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.55 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.83 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.35 percent.
US stocks ended higher on Wednesday after stronger-than-expected retail sales data offered evidence of resilience in the U.S. economy, but gains were capped as investors worried about more interest rate hikes by Federal Reserve in the months ahead.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.11 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.28 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.92 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil futures were flat to lower on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened and investors worried that rising interest rates would slow the economy and cut fuel demand.
Brent futures slid 20 cents, or 0.2%, to $85.38 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 47 cents, or 0.6%, to $78.59.
Gold prices hit their lowest since early January with pressure from the stronger dollar and better-than-expected U.S. economic data.
Spot gold was down 1.0% at $1,835.56 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 1.06% to $1,834.20 an ounce.