Posted at 14 February 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Labour Productivity 0.3%, 0.3% previous
• German Jan WPI (YoY) 10.6%, 12.8% previous
•German Jan WPI (MoM) 0.2%, 1.2% forecast,-1.6% previous
•UK Jan Claimant Count Change -12.9K,17.9K forecast,19.7K previous
•UK Dec Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) 74K,40K forecast, 27K previous
•UK Dec Average Earnings Index +Bonus 5.9%, 6.2% forecast, 6.4% previous
•UK Dec Average Earnings ex Bonus 6.7% ,6.5% forecast,6.4% previous
•UK Dec Unemployment Rate 3.7%, 3.7% forecast, 3.7% previous
•Swiss Jan PPI (MoM) 0.7%, -0.7% previous
•Swiss Jan PPI (YoY) 3.3%,3.2% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.9%, 1.9% forecast, 2.3% previous
•EU Employment Overall (Q4)165,072.7K, 164,499.5K previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
• EU Employment Change (QoQ)0.4%,0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Jan CPI (YoY) 6.2% forecast, 6.5% previous
•13:30 US Jan Real Earnings (MoM) 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Jan CPI Index, s.a 298.99 previous
•13:30 US Jan CPI, n.s.a (MoM) -0.31% previous
•13:30 US Jan CPI Index, n.s.a 298.66 forecast, 296.80 previous
•13:30 US Jan Core CPI Index 301.46 previous
•13:30 US Jan Core CPI (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
•13:30 US Jan CPI (MoM) 0.5% forecast,-0.1% previous
•13:30 US Jan Core CPI (YoY) 5.5% forecast,5.7% previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 4.3% previous
•16:00 US Jan Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• 16:00 US Fed Logan Speaks
•16:30 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
•19:05 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Tuesday after data showed euro zone employment rose more than expected.A flash estimate of employment showed the number of people with jobs in the euro zone increased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, twice as fast as expected by economists polled by Reuters, despite slowing economic growth. By 12:56 GMT, the euro was up 0.3% against the dollar at $1.0762, having fallen 2.56% since touching a ten-month high of $1.1034 on Feb 2. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0815(9DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0875 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0678(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0637(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose on Tuesday after data showed British wages rose quicker than expected in the last three months of 2022, adding to pressure on the Bank of England to continue to raise rates to bring down inflation. Tuesday’s data showed pay excluding bonuses rose by 6.7%, above the 6.5% expected by analysts, its fastest growth since records began in 2001 barring the pandemic period when data was distorted. The pound rose 0.53% against the dollar to an 11-day high of $1.2205 and also firmed against the euro, which dipped 0.2% to 88.17 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2216(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2258(Feb 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2115(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2024 (38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors were cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data. Markets are looking to U.S. consumer inflation data for further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, with the headline number expected to have risen by an annual 6.2% in January according to a poll, after December's 6.5% gain. The Fed will need to continue to raise rates to get them to a level high enough to bring inflation back down to the central bank’s target rate, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday.Markets now expect Fed’s target rate to peak at 5.188% in July, from a current range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9203 (14DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9287(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9166 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9108(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Tuesday as investor awaited for U.S. inflation data that could determine the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy moves . Investors are intently awaiting January’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data due later in the day. Economists polled expect the headline CPI figure gaining 0.5% month-on-month. Several Fed policymakers have recently signalled that more interest rate hikes were needed to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Money markets expect the Fed’s target rate to peak at 5.188% in July, from a current range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Strong resistance can be seen at 132.94(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.03 (Jan 5th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 131.74(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 130.51(23.6%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Tuesday, lifted by the travel sector after holiday group TUI projected a positive recovery trend for the upcoming summer season while shares of Thyssenkrupp slid on a decline in quarterly profit.
At (GMT 12:56 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.33 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.42 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.44 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday as the dollar slipped, with investors positioning for a U.S. inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,856.30 per ounce, as of 1141 GMT, after falling to its lowest since early January in the previous session.U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,866.40
Oil prices dipped on Tuesday after the U.S. government said it would release more crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while traders look out for U.S. inflation data for further queues.
Brent crude futures fell 80 cents, or 0.9%, to $85.81 per barrel by 1003 GMT, while U.S. crude futures fell $1.05, or 1.3%, to $79.09 per barrel. Both benchmarks are on track for their biggest daily percentage drop since Feb. 3.