Posted at 11 February 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. dollar index on track to post 2nd straight week of gains
•U.S. consumer sentiment improves, but inflation outlook rises
•Canada Jan Part Time Employment Change 28.9K, -5.4Kprevious
•Canada Jan Full Employment Change121.1K, 117.4Kprevious
•Canada Jan Participation Rate 65.7% 0.4% previous
•Canada Jan Unemployment Rate 5.0%, 5.1% forecast, 5.0% previous
•Canada Jan Employment Change 150.0K,15.0K forecast,104.0K previous
•US Feb Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.2%,4.0% forecast, 3.9% previous
•US Feb Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations2.90%, 2.90% forecast, 2.90% previous
•US Feb Michigan Consumer Sentiment 66.4, 65.0 forecast,64.9 previous
•US Feb Michigan Consumer Expectations 62.3,62.9 forecast, 62.7 previous
•US Feb Michigan Current Conditions 72.6, 68.0 forecast, 68.4 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 609,599 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 761 ,759 previous
•US Jan Federal Budget Balance -39.0B,-63.0B forecast, -85.0B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No Significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Friday as rising interest rates unsettled investors amid a growing chorus of central bank officials insisting monetary policy needs to remain tight for some time to lick inflation. Investors await U.S. consumer price data due on Feb. 14. The consumer price index edged up 0.1% in December rather than dipping 0.1% as reported last month, the Labour Department’s annual revisions of CPI data showed, while data next Tuesday is likely to show the CPI climbing 0.4% month-on-month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0815(9DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0875 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0676(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0637(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound eased on Friday after data showed the UK economy ground to a halt in the final three months of 2022, avoiding a technical recession, but logging zero growth.Monthly British gross domestic product data for December - a month marked by widespread rail strikes and bad weather showed a 0.5% contraction, the Office for National Statistics said, larger than the 0.3% forecast.The Bank of England forecast last week that Britain would enter a shallow but lengthy recession, starting in the first quarter of this year and lasting five quarters. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2175(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2182 (11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2041(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2000 (Psychological level).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a one-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as oil prices rose and a blockbuster domestic jobs report raised the risk that the Bank of Canada could be forced to tighten further. The Canadian economy added 150,000 jobs in January, smashing expectations for a gain of 15,000. It continued an uptrend in employment that began in September.The loonie was trading 0.8% higher at 1.3345 to the greenback, or 74.93 U.S. cents. That was its highest level since last Friday and the biggest gain among G10 currencies .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3381(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3404 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3332(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3276 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar initially dipped against yen on Friday but recovered shaply as investors grew concerned about a U.S. inflation report next week that could show a number that is higher than markets forecast amid data showing expectations for a continued rise in prices over the next year. The data continued to show positive momentum.The University of Michigan surveys on Friday showed a one-year inflation outlook of 4.2%, higher than the final number in January. The overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 66.4, up from 64.9 the prior month..Strong resistance can be seen at 131.79(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 133.26 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 130.42(23.6% fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 130.10 (21DMA)
Equities Recap
European shares dropped on Friday, pressured by a jump in yields as investors grappled with the prospect of a prolonged period of interest rate hikes by top central banks, while a dour outlook by Adidas added to the downbeat sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.36 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.39 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0. 82 percent.
The Nasdaq ended lower on Friday as megacap growth stocks came under pressure after Treasury yields pointed.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.50 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.22 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.61 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors continued to digest last week's strong employment report and await next week's latest consumer price index and retail sales figures.
Benchmark 10-year note yields US10YT=RR were last at 3.749%, their highest since Jan. 6. They have fallen from a 15-year high of 4.338% on Oct. 21, based on expectations that Fed tightening will lead to a recession this year.
Commodities Recap
Gold inched higher on Friday while markets awaited next week’s U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.
Spot gold was up 0.2% to $1,864.10 per ounce by 2:34 p.m. EST (1934 GMT). U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled 0.2% lower at $1,874.50 per ounce.
Oil prices rose more than 2% on Friday and posted weekly gains of over 8%, as Russia announced plans to reduce oil production next month after the West imposed price caps on the country's crude and fuel.
Brent crude futures rose to settle at $1.89, or 2.2%, to $86.39 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) were up $1.66, or 2.1%, at $79.72.