Posted at 10 February 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Dec Trade Balance Non-EU -7.48B, -4.67B previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4)0.0%, 0.0% forecast, -0.3% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast,1.9% previous
• UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4) 4.8%, -0.3% forecast,-2.5% previous
• UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q4) 13.2%, 1.3% previous
• UK Dec GDP (MoM) -0.5%, -0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
• UK Dec Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 0.0%,-0.3% previous
• UK Dec Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.0%, -0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
• UK Dec Manufacturing Production (YoY) -5.7% -6.1% forecast , -5.9% previous
•UK Index of Services 0.0%, 0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
• UK Dec Industrial Production (MoM) 0.3%, -0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
• UK Dec Industrial Production (YoY) -4.0%, -5.3% forecast, -5.1% previous
• Italian Dec Industrial Production (MoM) 1.6%, -0.1% forecast,-0.3% previous
•Italian Dec Industrial Production (YoY) 0.1%, -3.7% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)
•13:30 Canada Jan Part Time Employment Change 19.5K previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Full Employment Change 84.5K previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Participation Rate 65.0% previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Unemployment Rate 5.1% forecast, 5.0% previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Employment Change 15.0K forecast,104.0K previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.0% forecast, 3.9% previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.90% forecast, 2.90% previous
•15:00US Feb Michigan Consumer Sentiment 65.0 forecast,64.9 previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan Consumer Expectations 62.9 forecast, 62.7 previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan Current Conditions 68.0 forecast, 68.4 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 599 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 759 previous
•19:00 US Jan Federal Budget Balance -63.0B forecast, -85.0B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
• 14:00 UK BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
• 14:00 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Friday as nagging concerns about the economy and the future pace of central bank interest rate hikes unsettled investors. Sentiment took a hit after Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin added to a chorus of recent hawkish central bank remarks, while European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel stressed the need for more rate hikes and prevention of inflation expectations sharply topping its 2% target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0815(9DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0875 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0678(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0637(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound eased on Friday after data showed the UK economy ground to a halt in the final three months of 2022, avoiding a technical recession, but logging zero growth.Monthly British gross domestic product data for December - a month marked by widespread rail strikes and bad weather showed a 0.5% contraction, the Office for National Statistics said, larger than the 0.3% forecast.The Bank of England forecast last week that Britain would enter a shallow but lengthy recession, starting in the first quarter of this year and lasting five quarters. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2198(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2238(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2041(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2000 (Psychological level).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors remained wary of impending interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve to tame high inflation. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday “it just makes sense to steer more deliberately” with any further rate increases and that the decline in inflation seen so far had been “distorted” by some falling goods prices.Barkin’s comments came after Fed Chair Jerome Powell and several other policymakers this week indicated that interest rates might need to move higher than expected. Market participants are now expecting the Fed’s target rate to peak at 5.153% in July from a current range of 4.5% to 4.75%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9197 (14DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9286(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9173 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9098(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar initially dipped against yen on Friday but recovered some ground after Kazuo Ueda reportedly set to become the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor said the central bank's monetary policy was appropriate. Ueda said the central bank's current easy monetary policy was appropriate and that it should continue The BOJ shocked markets in December when it raised the cap on 10-year government bond yields to 0.5% from 0.25%, doubling the band it would permit above or below its target of zero.Since then, speculation has gathered pace the BOJ could adjust or scrap its yield curve control policy .Strong resistance can be seen at 131.57(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 133.08 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 130.60(9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 130.00 (Psychological level)
Equities Recap
European shares retreated on Friday and were poised for their first weekly decline in three, as traders gauged the prospects of a prolonged global monetary policy tightening, while German footwear maker Adidas' dour forecast also spooked investors.
At (GMT 13:12 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.64 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.34 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.13 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were nearly flat on Friday, while market focus switched to next week’s U.S. inflation data that is likely to provide clarity on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,862.74 per ounce, as of 1209 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since Jan. 6 earlier in the session. For the week, bullion was down 0.1%.U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,875.90.
Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Friday, heading for weekly gains, as Russia announced plans to reduce oil production next month after the West imposed price caps on the country's oil and oil products.
Brent crude futures rose $1.71, or 2.02%, to $86.21 a barrel by 1148 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $1.57, or 2.01%, at $79.63.