Posted at 04 February 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Jan U.S. payrolls 517k vs 185k estimate
•Brent and WTI post weekly declines of nearly 8%
•EU agrees on price caps on Russian refined oil products
•US Jan Manufacturing Payrolls 19K,6K forecast,8K previous
•US Jan Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Jan U6 Unemployment Rate 6.6%,6.5% previous
•US Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a. 506.00K, 462.00K previous
•US Jan Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.4%, 4.3% forecast,4.6% previous
• US Participation Rate 62.4%,62.3% previous
•US Payrolls Benchmark 568.00,374.00 previous
•US Jan Unemployment Rate 3.4%, 3.6% forecast,3.5% previous
•US Jan Nonfarm Payrolls 517K, 185K forecast,223K previous
•US Jan Private Nonfarm Payrolls 443K,190K forecast, 220K previous
•US Jan Government Payrolls 74.0K, 74.0K,3.0K previous
• US Jan S&P Global Composite PMI 46.8,46.6forecast,45.0 previous
•US Jan Services PMI 46.8,46.6 forecast,44.7 previous
•US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 60.4,45.2 previous
•US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 50.0,49.8 previous
•US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 67.8,67.6 previous
•US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 60.4,54.5 forecast, 54.7 previous
•US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.2 ,50.4 forecast,49.6 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 759 ,771 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 599,609 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Friday as dollar jumped after data showed that U.S. employers added significantly more jobs in January than economists expected. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed that nonfarm payrolls surged by 517,000 jobs last month. The department revised December data higher to show 260,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 223,000.Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% after gaining 0.4% in December. That lowered the year-on-year increase in wages to 4.4% from 4.8% in December. Economists polled had forecast a gain of 185,000 jobs and a 4.3% year-on-year jump in wages. The euro fell 0.98% to $1.08040. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0830 (21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0922 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0785(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0680(50DMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling stumbled against the dollar on Friday after a much larger-then-expected jump in U.S. jobs growth lifted the dollar as it drove bets that the Federal Reserve could opt for a bigger interest rate hike next month. The U.S. Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed nonfarm payrolls surged by 517,000 last month, blowing past expectations for an addition of 185,000 jobs. The pound reversed earlier gains, falling as much as 1% on the day to a three-week low of $1.20. It was last down 0.8% at $1.21295. Traders now price in a 90% chance of a 25-basis point hike from the Fed next month. Sterling fell 1.39% to $1.20550, the lowest since Jan. 6 and its worst day since Dec. 15. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2187(50DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2266(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2038(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.9047 (Jan 5th low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday and ended its run of weekly gains as U.S. data pointed to economic strength that could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to bring inflation under control.The U.S. dollar rallied against a basket of major currencies as the U.S. economy added many more jobs than expected in January The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, extended its recent decline on the prospect of higher interest rates and as investors sought more clarity on the imminent EU embargo on Russian refined products. Loonie pulled back from its strongest level in 2-1/2 months, which it touched on Thursday at 1.3260. For the week, it was down 0.7%, following a streak of six straight weekly gains. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3428 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3469 (Jan 31st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3380(21DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3353(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against yen on Friday after data showed U.S. employers added significantly more jobs than expected last month. The U.S. Labor Department's highly-anticipated monthly employment report showed nonfarm payrolls surged by 517,000 jobs in January. Economists in a poll had forecast a gain of 185,000. The data, which came on the heels of largely dovish messages from the Federal Reserve and some other central banks earlier this week, spurred concerns about interest rates staying elevated for longer than expected, boosting the dollar. The dollar was last up 1.12% at 102.92 on the day against a basket of currencies , the highest since Jan. 12 and it is on track for its best day since Sept. 23. The dollar gained 1.82% against the Japanese yen to 131.20, the highest since Jan. 18 and is on track for its best day since June 17. Strong resistance can be seen at 131.20(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 132.54 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 130.49(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 129.81 (5DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday, boosted by gains in healthcare and energy firms, as optimism over the outlook for the region's economy overshadowed concerns about U.S. interest rates staying elevated for longer than expected.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.04 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.21 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.94 percent.
Major U.S. stock indexes ended lower on Friday after surprisingly strong jobs data sparked concerns about aggressive Federal Reserve action, while investors digested a mixed bag of megacap company earnings reports.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.38% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.04 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.59% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields jumped higher on Friday after data that showed job growth surged and services activity rebounded in January, further complicating the Federal Reserve's attempts to slow the economy to bring inflation down.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 13 basis points to 3.528%, erasing price gains for the week. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 8.5 basis points to 3.640%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dropped over 2% on Friday to a more than three-week low after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data raised fears that the Federal Reserve could keep hiking interest rates.
Spot gold dipped 2.6% to $1,863.66 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled down 2.8% to $1,876.6.
Oil prices fell to over three-week lows on Friday in a volatile session, after strong U.S. jobs data raised concerns about higher interest rates and as investors sought more clarity on the imminent EU embargo on Russian refined products.
Brent crude futures fell $2.23, or 2.7%, to $79.94 a barrel, after rising to a session high of $84.20. It hit a session low of $79.72, its lowest since Jan. 11.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) ended down $2.49, or 3.3%, at $73.39, after trading between $78.00 and $73.13, its lowest since Jan. 5.