Posted at 02 February 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Dec Imports (MoM) -6.1%, -0.8%forecast,-3.3% previous
•German Dec Trade Balance 10.0B, 9.2B forecast,10.8B previous
•German Dec Exports (MoM) -6.3%, -3.3% forecast,-0.3% previous
•Spanish Unemployment Change70.7K, -15.2K forecast, -43.7K previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)
•12:00 UK Jan BoE MPC vote unchanged 2 forecast,2 previous
•12:00 UK Jan BoE Interest Rate Decision 4.00% forecast,3.50% previous
•12:30 US Jan Challenger Job Cuts 43.651K previous
•12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) 129.1% previous
•13:15 ECB Feb Interest Rate Decision 3.00% forecast, 2.50% previous
• 13:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) 1.5% forecast, 2.4% previous
•13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 2.4% forecast, 0.8% previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Building Permits (MoM) -5.0% forecast, 14.1% previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 200K forecast, 186K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,677K forecast,1,675K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 197.50K previous
•15:00 US Dec Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) -0.8% previous
•15:00 US Dec Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) -0.1% previous
•15:00 US Dec Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 6.3% previous
•15:00 US Dec Factory Orders (MoM) 2.3% forecast,-1.8% previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -142B forecast,-91B previous
•16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.500% previous
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.525% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
• 13:15 EU ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•13:15 EU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 2.75% previous
•13:15 EU Feb Deposit Facility Rate 2.50% forecast, 2.00% previous
•15:15 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•13:45 EU ECB Press Conference
• 13:15 EU ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•14:15 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro rose to 10-month high against the dollar on Thursday, ahead of a European Central Bank meeting at which markets expect a half-percentage point rate increase, a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve slowed the pace of its rises to 25 basis points. The ECB is widely expected to raise its interest rates by 50 basis points when it announces its policy decision at 1315 GMT and is likely to signal further rate hikes at future meetings. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1038 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1090 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0930(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0840(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped against dollar on Thursday as investors awaited the Bank of England Bank policy decision later in the day.The BoE is expected to raise its main interest rate by 50 basis points, its 10th consecutive rate rise, as it keeps up its fight against rampant inflation. There is an outside chance of a smaller quarter-point rate rise.A 50-basis-point move, which is largely priced in by money markets, would take the Bank Rate to 4%, its highest since 2008.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2415(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2485(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2284(21DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2200(Psychological level).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Thursday after remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cemented expectations that the U.S. tightening cycle might end soon.The Fed said on Wednesday it had turned a critical corner in the fight against high inflation after announcing an expected 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike and projecting further rate increases. The U.S. dollar index dived to a nine-month low on Thursday in reaction to the softer rate hike bets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9151(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9184(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9065(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9000 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Thursday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by an expected 25 basis points and Chair Jerome Powell's comments were read as dovish by the market.Investor attention is now on European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decisions later in the day, with expectations of a 50-basis-point rate hike from each. Strong resistance can be seen at 129.63(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 130.60 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 128.23(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 127.04 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Thursday, led by tech and real-estate stocks, with the focus squarely on the European Central Bank's interest rate decision a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve acknowledged its progress on curbing stubborn price pressures.
At (GMT 11:50 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.46 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.22 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.11 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose to a nine-month high on Thursday on a subdued dollar, as investors held onto the view that the U.S. Federal Reserve would soon end its rate hiking cycle after it announced an expected 25-basis-point increase.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,954.77 per ounce at 0927 GMT, having hit its highest since April 2022 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures rose 1.5% to $1,955.30.
Oil prices were steady on Thursday after tumbling in the previous session as a weaker dollar boosted sentiment, though looming sanctions on Russian oil products added uncertainty over supply.
Brent crude futures fell 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $82.74 a barrel by 0937 GMT while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude futures advanced 1 cents to $76.40.