Posted at 31 January 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q4)0.1%, 0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•French Dec Consumer Spending (MoM) -1.3%, 0.2% forecast,0.5% previous
•French GDP (YoY) 0.5% ,1.0% previous
•German Dec Retail Sales (YoY) -6.4%, -1.8% forecast,-5.9% forecast,
•German Dec Retail Sales (MoM) -5.3%, 0.2% forecast,1.1% previous
•German Dec Import Price Index (MoM) -1.6%, -2.6% forecast, -4.5% previous
•German Dec Import Price Index (YoY) 12.6%, 12.0% forecast, 14.5% previous
•Swiss Dec Retail Sales (YoY) -2.8%,-0.7% forecast,-1.3% previous
•French Dec PPI (MoM) 1.4%,0.0% forecast,1.2% previous
•French Jan CPI (MoM) 0.4%,0.5% forecast,-0.1% previous
•French Jan CPI (YoY) 6.0%,6.1% forecast,5.9% previous
•French Jan HICP (MoM) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast,-0.1% previous
•French Jan HICP (YoY) 7.0%,7.0% forecast,6.7% previous
•German Jan Unemployment Change -15K,5K forecast,-13K previous
•German Jan Unemployment Rate 5.5%,5.5% forecast, 5.5% previous
•UK Dec BoE Consumer Credit 0.493B,1.050B forecast,1.507B previous
• UK Dec Mortgage Lending 3.24B,4.00B forecast,4.36B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)
•13:00 German Jan HICP (MoM) 1.4% forecast,-1.2% previous
•13:00 German Jan CPI (MoM) 1.1% forecast,-0.8% previous
•13:00 German Jan CPI (YoY ) 9.2% forecast,8.6% previous
•13:00 German Jan HICP (YoY) 10.0% forecast,9.6% previous
•13:30 US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q4) 1.30% previous
•13:30 US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4) 1.1% forecast,1.2% previous
•13:30 US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q4)1.00% previous
•13:30 Canada Nov GDP (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP (YoY) 3.50% forecast,3.10% previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 4.6% previous
•14:00 US Nov House Price Index (MoM) -0.4% forecast,0.0% previous
•14:00 US Nov House Price Index 392.7 previous
•14:00 US Nov S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 6.8% forecast,8.6% previous
•14:00 US Nov S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) -0.6% forecast,-0.5% previous
•14:00 US Nov House Price Index (YoY) 9.8% previous
•14:00 US Nov S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) -0.8% previous
•14:45 US Jan Chicago PMI 45.1 forecast,44.9 previous
•15:00 US Jan CB Consumer Confidence 109.0 forecast,108.3 previous
•15:30 US Jan Dallas Fed Services Revenues -0.6 previous
•15:30 US Jan Texas Services Sector Outlook -19.8 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Tuesday after economic data revived fears of a marked economic slowdown, while investors got ready for a 50 basis point rate hike and possibly further hawkish guidance at the European Central Bank policy meeting. German retail sales unexpectedly fell in December as a Christmas shopping period weighed down by high inflation and the energy crisis revived fears of a more marked slowdown in Europe's largest economy.Retail sales decreased by 5.3% in December compared with the previous month, the federal statistics office said on Tuesday. Analysts polled had forecast a 0.2% rise in price-adjusted terms. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0867(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0940 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0809(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0773(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined on Tuesday as investors awaited a slew of central bank decisions this week. Investors have their eyes on the Bank of England, first of the major central banks to turn hawkish, which is expected to deliver its 10th rate hike since December 2021 on Thursday. Traders have priced in a 50 bps rate hike, followed by another 25 bps in March before the BoE pauses. The Fed's decision is also scheduled at 1900 GMT on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to increase rates by 25 basis points. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2435(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2531(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2242(20DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2186 (38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar rose against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as dollar strengthened ahead of slew of central bank meetings due this week.The big event of the week comes on Wednesday, when the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), its smallest increase since March 2022, to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Traders mostly expect the Fed to scale back rate hikes to 25 basis points (bps) at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. The U.S. central bank slowed its tightening pace to 50 bps in December after four straight 75-bp hikes. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9309 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9332(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9236(20DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9193(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against yen on Tuesday as investors braced for an eventful week that will include central bank meetings, a slew of earnings reports and key U.S. economic data. Investors broadly expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday. Interest rate announcements are also due on Thursday from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank - and both are expected to hike rates by 50 bps. The yen was up 0.1% at 130.34 per dollar and was set for its third monthly gain, with markets anticipating a shift in Japanese monetary policy. Strong resistance can be seen at 130.67(20DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 131.68 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 129.42 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 127.28 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares dropped on Tuesday as investors feared another round of interest rate hikes by major central banks this week, while shares of Italian bank UniCredit jumped after a profit beat.
At (GMT 11:49 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.82 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.62 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.59 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell 1% on Tuesday to a more than one-week low as the dollar firmed, while investors kept a close watch on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hike decision and policy outlook.
Spot gold dropped 1% to $1,904.29 per ounce by 1124 GMT, its lowest level since Jan. 19. U.S. gold futures were down 1% at $1,904.00.
Oil prices fell by more than 1% on Tuesday, touching two-week lows on the prospect of further interest rate increases, a stronger U.S. dollar and ample Russian crude flows.
March Brent crude futures were $1.13, or 1.33%, lower at $83.77 per barrel by 1133 GMT, having touched their weakest level since Jan. 13 earlier in the session.