Posted at 18 January 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Fed's Bullard, Mester, Harker back rate increases
•In economic data, U.S. retail sales drop in December
•U.S. factory production falls more than expected
•US indexes down: Dow 1.81%, S&P 1.56%, Nasdaq 1.24%
•Canada Dec RMPI (YoY) 7.5%,8.0% previous
•Canada Dec IPPI (YoY) 7.6%,9.7% previous
•US Dec Retail Control (MoM) -0.7%,-0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous
•Canada Dec RMPI (MoM) -3.1%,-1.3% forecast,-0.8% previous
•US Dec Retail Sales (MoM) -1.1%,-0.8% forecast,-0.6% previous
•US Dec Core Retail Sales (MoM) -1.1% ,-0.4% forecast, -0.2% previous
•US Dec Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) -0.7%, -0.2% previous
•US Dec Core PPI (YoY) 5.5%, 5.7% forecast,6.2% previous
•US Dec PPI (YoY) 6.2% ,6.8% forecast, 7.4% previous
•US Dec PPI (MoM) -0.5%,-0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Dec PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM ) 0.1%,0.3% previous
•US Dec Core PPI (MoM) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Dec PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 4.6%, 4.9% previous
•Canada Dec IPPI (MoM) -1.1%, -0.3% forecast,-0.4% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 5.0%,5.3% previous
•US Dec Industrial Production (YoY) 1.65%,2.51% previous
•US Dec Manufacturing Production (MoM) -1.3%,-0.3%forecast,-0.6% previous
•US Dec Capacity Utilization Rate 78.8%,79.6% forecast,79.7% previous
•US Dec Industrial Production (MoM) -0.7%,-0.1% forecast,-0.2% previous
•US Nov Retail Inventories Ex Auto -0.3%,-0.3% previous
•US Nov Business Inventories (MoM) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Jan NAHB Housing Market Index 35, 31 forecast, 31 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•23:50 Japan Dec Trade Balance -1,652.8B forecast, -2,027.4B previous
•23:50 Japan Dec Imports (YoY) 22.4% forecast,30.3% previous
•23:50 Japan Dec Exports (YoY) 10.1% forecast,20.0% previous
•23:50 Japan Dec Foreign Bonds Buying 566.8B previous
•23:50 Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks -199.1B previous
•23:50 Japan Adjusted Trade Balance -1.73T previous
•00:01 UK Dec RICS House Price Balance -30% forecast, -25% previous
•00:30 Australia Dec Full Employment Change 34.2K previous
•00:30 Australia Dec Unemployment Rate 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous
•00:30 Australia Dec Employment Change 22.5K forecast, 64.0K previous
•00:30 Australia Dec Participation Rate 66.8% forecast,66.8% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Wednesday as dollar rose after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials fueled worries that U.S. interest rates will keep rising despite signs of slowing economic growth.The dollar had weakned ealier after data showed U.S. producer prices and retail sales fell more than expected in December but loses proved to be short-lived as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stressed the need to raise rates beyond 5% to bring inflation to heel. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0896(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0950 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0778(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged up against the dollar on Wednesday, as data showed British consumer price inflation fell to a three-month low of 10.5% in December but remains near 40-year highs. The UK’s inflation figures were largely in line with consensus expectations, with the downward momentum likely offering some comfort to the Bank of England (BoE) and households struggling with a cost-of-living crisis. The pound is close to a six-month high of $1.2446 touched last month, but the outlook remains gloomy as recession fears, high inflation and a cost-of-living crisis weigh on the British economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2383(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2438(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2265 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2173 (Jan 17th low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar tumbled to its lowest level in nearly two weeks against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as U.S. economic data fueled concern that an expected slowdown in activity would happen at a pace that was too rapid for investors to handle. Canadian producer prices came lower in December. They fell 1.1% from the previous month, while the annual rate of growth eased to 7.6% from 9.4%.The loonie was trading 0.8% lower at 1.3495 to the greenback, or 74.10 U.S. cents, its sharpest decline since Dec. 15. It touched its weakest level since Jan. 6 at 1.35. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3502 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3548 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3451 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3353 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against yen on Wednesday in the wake of the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain ultra-low interest rates. The Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy policy, including a bond yield cap, defying market expectations it would phase out its massive stimulus program because of increasing inflation pressures.The decision caused the yen to fall, with investors unwinding bets based on expectations the central bank would overhaul its yield control policy.The dollar rose as much as 2.7% to 131.58 yen before gains were pared. Strong resistance can be seen at 130.00 (Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 131.68 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 128.12 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 126.93 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks were little changed in cautious trade Wednesday after five consecutive sessions of gains.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.26 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.03 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.09 percent.
The S&P 500 and the Dow lost almost 2% on Wednesday, their biggest daily drops in more than a month, after weak economic data fueled recession worries while hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials soured investor moods further.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.81% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.56% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.24% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices turned negative on Wednesday, erasing gains made on weak U.S. economic data yet staying above the $1,900 level, as key members of the Federal Reserve signaled their intent to keep pushing interest rates higher to combat inflation.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,904.84 per ounce by 1:45 p.m. ET (1845 GMT), after hitting a session low of $1,896.32 earlier.U.S. gold futures settled down 0.2% at $1,907.
Oil prices fell about 1% on Wednesday, surrendering early gains as worries about a possible U.S. recession outweighed optimism that China's lifting of COVID-19 curbs will fuel demand for crude in the world's top oil importer.
Brent futures fell 94 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $84.98 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 70 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at 79.48.