Posted at 11 January 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. CPI data due at 1330 GMT on Thursday
•U.S. crude stocks jump in surprise build, biggest since Feb 2021
•US Heating Oil Stockpiles 0.405M,-0.476M previous
•Copper buoyant on end to China COVID restrictions
•Treasury yields fall while stocks rise
•US Gasoline Inventories 1.186M forecast, -0.346M previous
•US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) 4.5%, 6.1% forecast, -12.4% previous
• US Gasoline Production 0.067M,-1.678M previous
•US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -1.069M,-0.472M forecast,-1.427M previous
•US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 2.511M,0.244M previous
•US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) 0.831M,-2.329M previous
•US Crude Oil Inventories 18.962M,-2.243M forecast,1.694M previous
•US Distillate Fuel Production -1.050M previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•23:50 Japan Dec Bank Lending (YoY) 2.7% previous
•23:50 Japan Nov Current Account n.s.a. 0.471T forecast,-0.064T previous
•23:50 Japan Adjusted Current Account 0.65T forecast,-0.61T previous
•00:30 Australia Nov Exports (MoM) -1.0% previous
•00:30 Australia Nov Trade Balance 10.500B forecast, 12.217B previous
•00:30 Australia Nov Imports (MoM) -1.0% previous
•01:30 China Dec CPI (YoY) 1.8% forecast, 1.6% previous
•01:30 China Dec CPI (MoM) -0.1% forecast,-0.2% previous
•01:30 China Dec PPI (YoY) -0.1% forecast, -1.3% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro briefly hit a seven-month high against the dollar on Wednesday but held within a narrow range as traders avoided making big moves ahead of U.S. inflation data on Thursday, which may offer a clearer picture of where interest rates are headed. Investors are keenly focused on U.S. CPI data due on Thursday, as Fed speakers have said their next moves will be data-dependent. The euro touched $1.07765, its highest since May 31 with the dollar recently on the back foot as traders bet the Federal Reserve will not have to raise rates as fast and as high as earlier thought to tame stubbornly high inflation. The euro was last up 0.15% at $1.0751 against the dollar Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0761(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0787 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0643(9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0526(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Wednesday as investors waited for U.S. inflation data for cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The U.S. consumer price index report, due on Thursday, is expected to show some moderation in the year-on-year price increase in December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not give any policy clues during a panel discussion in Stockholm on Tuesday, and with other Fed officials saying their next moves will be data-dependent, investors are keenly focused on U.S. CPI data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2173(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2337(Higher BB),On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2091(14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2000 (Psychological level).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, consolidating its recent gains for a second day, as oil prices climbed and investors awaited a key U.S. inflation report . The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, rose for a fifth consecutive day as hopes for an improved global economic outlook and concern over the impact of sanctions on Russian crude output outweighed a massive surprise build in U.S. crude stocks. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3420 per U.S. dollar, after moving in a range of 1.3405 to 1.3445.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3487 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3518 (14DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3374 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3322 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against Japanese yen on Wednesday traders held off from making big moves ahead of U.S. inflation data on Thursday that could influence the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-hike stance. Thursday's data will be crucial in determining what the Fed is likely to do with interest rates in its next meeting at the start of February. Investors are betting that the upcoming inflation report could show further deceleration, potentially giving the Fed room to slow the pace of interest rate rises. The Japanese yen was little changed at 132.43 per dollar . Strong resistance can be seen at 132.59(14DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 133.85(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 131.23(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 131.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed higher on Wednesday as optimism over China's reopening helped underpin sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.40 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1. 17 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.80 percent.
U.S. stocks ended up sharply on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining more than 1% each as investors were optimistic ahead of an inflation report that could give the Federal Reserve room to dial back on its aggressive interest rate hikes.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.80% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.28% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.76% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields fell on Wednesday, a day before the release of key consumer price data, with the market anticipating that inflation is on a sustainable downward path and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by year end.
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes fell 5.9 basis points to 3.560%. Yields move inversely to their price.The two-year , which often reflects interest rate expectations, slid 2.1 basis points at 4.237%, while yield on the 30-year bonds fell 6.7 basis points to 3.687%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady after touching an eight-month peak on Wednesday as investors positioned themselves ahead of U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's policy path.
Spot gold was steady at $1,877.51 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled up 0.1% at $1,878.9.
Oil prices rose 3% to a one-week high on Wednesday as hopes for an improved global economic outlook and concern over the impact of sanctions on Russian crude output outweighed a massive surprise build in U.S. crude stocks.
Brent futures rose $2.57, or 3.2%, to settle at $82.67 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.29, or 3.1%, to settle at $77.41.