Posted at 07 January 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. jobs rise more than expected, but wage gains slow
•U.S. services sector contracts in December; factory orders slump
•U.S. rates market prices in 25-bps hikes in next two meetings
•US indexes up: Dow 2.13%, S&P 2.28%, Nasdaq 2.56%
• Investors bet that Fed need not be as hawkish
•Canada Dec Part Time Employment Change 19.5K, -40.6K previous
•Canada Dec Full Employment Change 84.5K, 50.7K previous
•US Dec Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•Canada Dec Private Nonfarm Payrolls 220K, 180K forecast, 221K previous
•US Dec Manufacturing Payrolls 8K, 10K forecast, 14K previous
•US Dec Nonfarm Payrolls 223K, 200K forecast ,263K previous
•US Dec Government Payrolls 3.0K, 42.0K previous
•Canada Dec Unemployment Rate 5.0%, 5.2% forecast ,5.1% previous
•Canada Dec Participation Rate 65.0%, 64.8% previous
•US Dec Average Weekly Hours 34.3, 34.4 forecast , 34.4 previous
•US Dec Unemployment Rate 3.5%, 3.7% forecast , 3.7% previous
•Canada Dec Employment Change 104.0K, 8.0K forecast ,10.1K previous
•US Dec Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.6%,5.0% forecast ,5.1% previous
•US Dec Participation Rate 62.3%, 62.1% previous
•US Dec U6 Unemployment Rate 6.5%,6.7% previous
•US Nov Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) -0.8%, 0.8% previous
•US Nov Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.1%, 0.2% previous
•US Nov Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -2.7%,-2.6% previous
•US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 49.8, 51.5 previous
•US ISM Dec Non-Manufacturing Prices 67.6, 70.0 previous
•US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 45.2, 56.0 previous
•US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 54.7, 59.5 forecast ,64.7 previous
•US Nov Factory Orders (MoM) -1.8%, -0.8% forecast ,1.0% previous
•US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 49.6, 55.0 forecast ,56.5 previous
• Canada Dec Ivey PMI 33.4,51.0 forecast ,51.4 previous
• Canada Dec Ivey PMI n.s.a 40.6, 51.5 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 618,621 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 772, 779 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
• No significant event
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro rose on Friday as dollar declined after a crucial U.S. jobs report showed wage growth slowed in December, fuelling investor bets that inflation is easing and that the Federal Reserve need not be as aggressive as some feared. Friday’s data showed the U.S. economy added jobs at a solid clip in December, pushing the unemployment rate back to a pre-pandemic low of 3.5% as the labor market stayed tight, while average hourly earnings rose 4.6% in December from a year earlier, down from 4.8% in November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0594(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0667(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0488(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0458(Dec 7th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling firmed on Friday erasing earlier losses as dollar dipped following monthly U.S. jobs report that indicated economic growth was cooling, which may signal a less hawkish Fed path in early 2023. Friday's data showed the United States added 223,000 jobs in December, down from November's 263,000 pace, but above the 200,000 jobs forecast by economists. Additionally, U.S. services industry activity contracted for the first time in nearly three years in December, offering evidence that inflation was abating. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2010(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2143(38.2% fib),On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1847(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1805 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a one-month high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as investors raised bets on further tightening by the Bank of Canada after domestic data showed a huge jobs gain in December. The Canadian economy gained 104,000 jobs last month, far exceeding analysts’ forecasts of a rise of 8,000, while the jobless rate unexpectedly declined to 5%, Statistics Canada data showed. The Canadian dollar was trading 1% higher at 1.3434 to the greenback, or 74.44 U.S. cents, its strongest level since Dec. 5. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3500 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3546 (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3435 (Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3397(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against Japanese yen on Friday after a crucial U.S. jobs report showed wage growth slowed in December, fuelling investor bets that inflation is easing and that the Federal Reserve need not be as aggressive as some feared. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 223,000 jobs in December, Labor Department data showed, while a 0.3% rise in average earnings was smaller than expected and less than the previous month's 0.4%.In another set of data, U.S. services activity declined for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December as demand weakened, with more signs of inflation easing. Strong resistance can be seen at 133.83(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.55(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 132.14(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 130.78(21st Dec low).
Equities Recap
European shares closed at seven-month highs on Friday, boosted by miners and oil stocks, while data pointing to a moderation in U.S. jobs growth helped calm nerves over the Federal Reserve's rate-hike trajectory.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.87 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.20 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.47 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes all gained more than 2% on Friday after December payrolls expanded more than expected even as wage increases slowed and services activity contracted, easing worries about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking path.
Dow Jones closed up by 2.13% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 2.28% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 2.56% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields tumbled on Friday after data showed signs of an economy slowing down as wages rose less than expected last month even though new jobs increased more than anticipated, while the U.S. services sector shrank for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years.
U.S. 10-year yields slid to two-week troughs of 3.551%. The yield was last down 16.6 bps at 3.556%.
U.S. 30-year yields also declined to a two-week low of 3.671%, last down 11.6 bps at 3.682%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices shot up over 1% on Friday to seven-month highs as Treasury yields and the dollar fell after U.S. economic data cemented expectations of a less-hawkish Fed, setting the metal on track for its third consecutive weekly rise.
Spot gold jumped 1.9% to $1,867.18 per ounce by 1:43 p.m. ET (1843 GMT), their highest since June 13 last year. Prices have gained about 2.1% so far this week, the most since the week of Dec. 2.U.S. gold futures settled up 1.6% at $1,869.7. on suggestions of less-hawkish Fed path.
Oil prices were little changed on Friday as the market balanced a weaker U.S. dollar and mixed U.S. jobs reports, but both crude benchmarks ended the first week of the year lower due to global recession concerns.
Brent futures fell 12 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $78.57 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 10 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $73.77.