Posted at 05 January 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. weekly jobless claims at three-month low
•U.S. non-farm payrolls data due on Friday
•US Dec Challenger Job Cuts 43.651K,76.835K previous
•US Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) 129.1%,416.5% previous
•US Dec ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 235K,150K forecast,127K previous
•Canada Nov Exports 64.37B,67.04B previous
•US Imports 313.40B,334.80B previous
•US Exports 251.90B,256.60B previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,694K,1,708K forecast, 1,710K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 213.75K,221.00K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 204K,225K, 225K previous
•US Nov Trade Balance -61.50B, -73.00B forecast,-78.20B previous
•Canada Nov Trade Balance 0.61B forecast,1.21B previous
•Canada Nov Imports 64.41B,65.82B previous
•US Dec Services PMI 44.7,44.4 forecast,46.2 previous
•US Dec S&P Global Composite PMI 45.0,44.6 forecast,46.4 previous
•US Natural Gas Storage-221B ,228B forecast,-213B previous
•US Crude Oil Inventories 1.694M,1.154M forecast, 0.718M previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.100%,3.830% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction 4. 430%, 4.250% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)
•23:50 Japan Nov Overtime Pay (YoY) 7.90% previous
•23:50 Japan Average Cash Earnings (YoY) 1.8% previous
•00:30 Japan Services Dec PMI 51.7 forecast, 50.3 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
• No significant event
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Thursday after data pointed to a strong jobs market, supporting the prospect that the Federal Reserve could keep up the pace of aggressive rate hikes.Private employment increased by 235,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Thursday, a day before Friday's highly anticipated December employment report. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private jobs increasing 150,000. Separately, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a three-month low last week, while layoffs fell 43% in December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0632(9DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0710(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0532(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0506(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after business data highlighted the likelihood that Britain is already in recession.The S&P Global/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December was revised slightly lower. While it marked an improvement from November's reading, new business contracted for a second month running and the survey's employment index fell to its lowest level since February 2021.The pound fell 0.33% versus the U.S. dollar to $1.2019. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1974(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2128(Dec 28th high),On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1854(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1782 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, pulling back from a one-month high, as investors worried about the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and data showed Canada’s trade balance swinging to a deficit. Canada posted a trade deficit of C$41 million ($30.2 million) in November after a revised surplus of C$130 million in October, data from Statistics Canada showed. The loonie was trading 0.7% lower at 1.3565 to the greenback, or 73.72 U.S. cents, after touching its strongest intraday level since Dec. 5 at 1.3467.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3576 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3590 (21 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3469(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3428 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar gained against Japanese yen on Thursday after signs of strength in U.S. labor markets raised worries that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. The ADP National Employment Report, which showed the private sector added more jobs in December than a month ago. It came a day after a moderate fall in U.S. job openings too. At the same time, U.S. initial jobless claims fell 19,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 204,000 for the week ended Dec. 31, the lowest since the end-September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week,Traders now await the U.S. Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. Strong resistance can be seen at 133.85(38.2%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.43 (Dec 28th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 132.18(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 131.40(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Thursday as media stocks were weighed by declines in British education group Pearson, while data suggesting tight labour conditions in the United States raised fears about the Federal Reserve keeping rates higher for longer.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.64 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.38 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.22 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes lost more than 1% on Thursday, with Nasdaq leading the declines, as evidence of a tight labor market eroded hopes that the Federal Reserve could pause its rating hiking cycle anytime soon as it keeps focused on inflation.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.02% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.16% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.47% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields for most maturities rose on Thursday after the latest data showed that the labor market in the world's largest economy remained tight, suggesting the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for some time.
In afternoon trading, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes was flat at 3.714%.U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yields were down 3.3 bps at 3.849%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices pared losses on Thursday after Fed remarks of inflation easing in 2023, after slipping more than 1% on reports of a tighter-than-expected U.S. labour market boosting expectations of higher interest rates for longer.
Spot gold pared losses and fell 0.9% to $1,837.01 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT), earlier falling as low as $1,824.08.U.S. gold futures settled down around 1% at $1,840.6.
Oil prices rose around 1% on Thursday after posting the biggest two-day loss for the start of a year in three decades with U.S. data showing lower fuel inventories providing support and economic concerns capping gains.
Brent crude futures settled higher at 85 cents, or 1.1%, at $78.69 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 83 cents, or 1.2%, at $73.67 a barrel.