Posted at 14 December 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Nov RPI (MoM) 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
•UK Nov RPI (YoY) 14.0%,13.9% forecast, 14.2% previous
•UK Nov CPI (YoY) 10.7%,10.9% forecast, 11.1% previous
•UK Nov Core RPI (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 2.4% previous
•UK Nov CPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.6% forecast,2.0% previous
•UK Nov CPI, n.s.a 126.70,126.20 previous
•UK Nov Core RPI (YoY) 13.5%, 13.9% previous
•UK Nov Core CPI (YoY) 6.3%,6.5% forecast, 6.5% previous
•UK Nov Core CPI MoM (MoM) 0.3%,0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous
•Swiss Nov PPI (MoM) -0.5%, 0.0% previous
•Swiss Nov PPI (YoY) 3.8%, 4.9% previous
•EU Oct Industrial Production (YoY) 3.4%, 3.4% forecast,4.9% previous
•EU Oct Industrial Production (MoM)-2.0%,-1.5% forecast, 0.9% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Nov Export Price Index (MoM) -0.4% forecast,-0.3% previous
•13:30 US Nov Import Price Index (MoM) -0.5% forecast,-0.2% previous
•13:30 Canada Oct Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 2.0% forecast, -1.9% previous
•15:19 US Sep Dallas Fed PCE 6.00% previous
•15:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -0.053M previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Production -0.295M previous
•15:30 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) -0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
•15:30 US Distillate Fuel Production 0.021M previous
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.715M forecast, -0.373M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Imports 1.493M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -3.595M forecast,-5.187M previous
•19:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.50% forecast, 4.00% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•19:00 US FOMC Economic Projections
•19:00 US FOMC Statement
•19:30 US FOMC Press Conference
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Wednesday as dollar nursed losses after data showed U.S. consumer prices barely rose in November, stoking hopes inflation has peaked and interest rate increases will slow and eventually stop in 2023. The market’s focus now shifts to Fed’s rate hike decision. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 50 basis-point (bp)rate increase at 1400 ET (1900 GMT) on Wednesday, after four back-to-back 75 bps hikes. However, concerns about the future trajectory of rate hikes kept optimism in check, as investors worried about the prospects of the economy being tipped into a recession from sharp interest rate hikes. The euro was steady against the dollar at $1.0642, not far off a six-month intraday high of $1.0673. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0689(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0718(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0583(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0539(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held broadly steady on Wednesday after data showed UK inflation eased from a 41-year high in the run-up to the Bank of England’s next rate decision due later this week. Official consumer prices data on Wednesday showed UK inflation falling more sharply than expected in November to 10.7% from October’s 41-year high of 11.1%. The market is looking ahead to the BoE’s interest rate decision on Thursday, with traders placing a 70% chance of a 50 basis points (bps) increase to the bank rate. The pound edged up 0.24% to $1.2395 against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2457( 23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2520(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.22999DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2164(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Wednesday after data showed U.S. consumer prices barely rose in November, stoking hopes that central banks will stop raising interest rates in early 2023. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.1% last month, 0.2 percentage points slower than economists expected. In the 12 months through November, headline CPI climbed 7.1% - its slowest pace in about a year. The dollar has dropped around 9% from a two-decade high in September. The dollar index was 0.22% lower at 103.84 after hitting a six-month low of 103.57 the previous day.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9325(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9366(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9260(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9218 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against Japanese yen on Wednesday after cooler-than-expected inflation data fuelled bets that Federal Reserve will outline a slower rate hike path. U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected for a second straight month in November, with underlying consumer prices advancing by the least in 15 months, Tuesday's report from the Labor Department showed. Market focus now shifts to the Fed’s decision scheduled at 1900 GMT. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to increase rates by 50 basis points at its final meeting of this year. Strong resistance can be seen at 136.15(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 139.70(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.22(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 137.33(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Wednesday from the near one-week highs hit in the previous session, amid growing concerns of a global economic slowdown, ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
At (GMT 12:27) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0. 50 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0. 30percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held above the $1,800 per ounce pivot on Wednesday as signs of cooling U.S. inflation lifted expectations the Federal Reserve will adopt a less aggressive policy stance later in the day.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,807.77 per ounce, as of 0957 GMT. U.S. gold futures eased 0.3% to $1,820.10.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday after OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) both forecast a rebound in demand over the course of next year and as U.S. rate hikes are expected to ease alongside slowing inflation.
Brent crude futures rose 76 cents, or 0.9%, to $81.44 per barrel by 1144 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 80 cents at $76.19.