Posted at 30 November 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Oct Consumer Spending (MoM) -2.8%, -0.6%forecast, 1.2% previous
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•French Oct PPI (MoM) -0.1%, 1.0% previous
•French CPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 1.0% previous
•French CPI (YoY)6.2%, 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous
•French HICP (MoM)-0.5%, 0.4% forecast,1.2% previous
•German Nov Unemployment Rate 5.6%, 5.5% forecast,5.5% previous
•German Nov Unemployment n.s.a 2.434M, 2.442M previous
•German Nov Unemployment 2.538M,2.518M previous
•German Nov Unemployment Change 17K, 13K forecast, 8K previous
•EU Nov CPI (YoY) 10.0%,10.4% forecast, 10.6% previous
• EU Nov HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 6.6% 6.3% forecast, 6.4% previous
• Italian Nov CPI (YoY) 11.8%,11.3% forecast, 11.8% previous
•Italian Nov HICP (MoM) 0.6%, 0.2% forecast, 3.8% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY)5.0%, 5.0% forecast,5.0% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT )
•13:15 US ADP Nov Nonfarm Employment Change 200K, 239K previous
•13:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 2.7% forecast, 2.6% previous
•13:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q3) 1.4% forecast, 2.0% previous
•13:30 US GDP Sales (Q3) 3.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
•13:30 US PCE Prices (Q3) 4.2% forecast, 7.3% previous
•13:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q3) 4.50% forecast, 4.70% previous
•13:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 4.1% forecast ,9.0% previous
•13:30 US Oct Retail Inventories Ex Auto -0.2% forecast , -0.1% previous
•13:30 US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3) 3.1% forecast , 6.2% previous
•13:30 US Oct Goods Trade Balance -90.20B forecast , -92.22B previous
•13:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.5% forecast , 0.6% previous
• 14:45 US Nov Chicago PMI 47.0 forecast , 45.2 previous
•15:00 US Oct Pending Home Sales Index 79.5 previous
•15:00 US Oct JOLTs Job Openings 10.300M forecast , 10.717M previous
•15:00 US Oct Pending Home Sales (MoM) -5.0% forecast ,-10.2% previous
•15:00 USM2 Money Supply (MoM) 21.42T previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.758M forecast ,--3.691M
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•17:35 US Fed Governor Cook Speaks
•18:30 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
•19:00 US Beige Book
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar Wednesday as investors looked to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech for more clues on monetary policy stance. Powell will deliver a speech to the Brookings Institution in Washington at 1830 GMT.Markets show investors are attaching a probability of 63.5% odds that the Fed raises interest rates by just half a point on Dec. 14, and a 36.5% chance of another 75 basis point hike. The euro was last up 0.2% at $1.0348, lifting off a one-week low earlier on Wednesday at $1.0319. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the performance of the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.22% to 106.64, down from an overnight high of 106.90. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0388(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0493(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0312(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0223(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling gained against the dollar on Wednesday as the safe-haven greenback fell as investors largely focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for insights into the U.S. central bank’s monetary policy path. Powell’s speech at a Brookings Institution event, scheduled for 1830 GMT, will be evaluated for any new clues on the Fed’s plans for rate hikes next year. The ADP National Employment report at 1315 GMT is also on investors’ radar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2020( 5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2130 (Nov 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1934(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1793(20DMA).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech for insights into the U.S. central bank's monetary policy path. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin on Monday doused speculation the U.S. central bank would reverse course on interest rates relatively quickly next year in comments made late on Monday.After similar messages from other Fed officials on Monday, investors were warily awaiting Wednesday's appearance by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who earlier this month had dashed hopes of policy easing when he spoke to reporters after a Fed meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9554(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9609(21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9494(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9405(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against Japanese yen on Wednesday but gains were limited as focus turned to Jerome Powell speech later in US session. The Fed is largely expected to deliver a 50 basis point rate rise, after four consecutive 75 bp increases, to tame inflation. Signs that U.S. inflation is peaking, meaning the Fed can slow the pace of its aggressive rate hikes, has boosted government bond markets but dented the robust dollar. Investors meanwhile looked past disappointing business activity data from China and an escalation of protests in some parts of the country over stringent COVID-19 lockdowns, pinning hopes instead on a quicker reopening of the world's No.2 economy. Strong resistance can be seen at 139.03(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.53(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 137.74 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 137.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Wednesday, joining Asian peers, although caution remained amid disappointing China factory activity data, and as investors looked to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech for more clues on monetary policy stance.
At (GMT 11:01 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.62 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0. 40 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0. 66 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Wednesday as the dollar eased and was headed for its biggest monthly gain in more than two years, while investors braced for a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for hints on future interest rate rises.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,760.56 per ounce by 0921 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.6% to $1,759.40.
Oil prices firmed in Asian trade on Wednesday on falling U.S. crude inventory figures from API, a lower greenback and some optimism on the outlook for China's demand and economy.
Brent crude futures had firmed 70 cents or 0.84% to $83.73 per barrel by 0732 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 56 cents or 0.72% to $78.76 per barrel.