Posted at 18 November 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Oct Retail Sales (YoY) -6.1%, -6.5% forecast,-6.9% previous
•UK Oct Core Retail Sales (YoY) -6.7%, -6.9% forecast, -6.2% previous
•UK Oct Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.3%, 0.6% forecast, -1.5% previous
•UK Oct Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6%, 0.3% forecast, -1.4% previous
•Swiss Industrial Production (QoQ) 5.2% forecast, 7.9% previous
•Canada Oct IPPI (MoM) 2.4% ,0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•Canada Oct IPPI (YoY) 10.1%, 9.0% previous
•Canada Sep Foreign Securities Purchases -22.27B ,22.01B previous
•Canada Oct RMPI (MoM) 1.3% ,-3.2% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT )
•15:00 US Oct Existing Home Sales 4.38M forecast, 4.71M previous
•15:00 US Oct Existing Home Sales (MoM) -1.5% previous
•15:00 US Oct Leading Index (MoM) -0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 779 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 622 previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•17:15 UK MPC Member Haskel Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday as investors digest warnings from U.S. Federal Reserve officials on U.S. interest rates. Bullard said interest rates might need to hit a range from 5-5.25% from the current level of just below 4.00% to be sufficiently restrictive to curb inflation.That was a blow to investors who had been wagering rates would peak at 5% and saw Fed fund futures sell off as markets priced in more chance that rates would now top out at 5-5.25%, rather than 4.75-5.0%. The euro held at $1.0375 , having eased from a four-month peak of $1.0481 hit on Tuesday as some policymakers argued for caution on tightening. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0423( 23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0476(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0247 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0211(11DMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose on Friday after better-than-expected retail sales for Britain a day after finance minister Jeremy Hunt announced tax rises and spending cuts in an effort to reassure markets that the government was serious about fighting inflation.Data on Friday showed British retail sales staged a partial recovery in October, when inflation hit a 41-year high of 11.1%.After a volatile session on Thursday, sterling rose on Friday to trade up 0.4% against the U.S. dollar to $1.1914, not far from three-month high touched earlier this week. Against the euro, sterling rose 0.5% at 86.98 pence, briefly touching its highest against the single currency in almost two weeks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1963 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2007(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1838(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1731(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Friday as the greenback strengthened on signals from U.S. central bankers that more interest rate hikes were on the way. U.S. currency was headed for its best week in a month, as hawkish remarks from Fed officials and strong retail sales put the brakes on a pullback triggered by signs of softening inflation last week.Markets are currently pricing in an 87% chance of a 50-basis point hike at the Fed’s December meeting, after four straight 75-bps hikes. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9570(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9627(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9427 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9365 (lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar initially gained against the yen on Friday but dipped after Federal Reserve officials reiterated their commitment to raising U.S. interest rates more than markets currently anticipate. Data that showed resilience in consumer spending last month has helped to wipe out some of the expectation among investors that Fed rates might be nearing a peak.St Louis Fed President James Bullard was the latest Fed official to push back on market hopes for a pause in interest rate hikes, saying that even on dovish assumptions the funds rate needs to rise to at least 5-5.25% to curb inflation, from 3.75-4% currently. Strong resistance can be seen at 141.93(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 142.10 (11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 138.37(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 137.59(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday after two straight sessions of declines, as investors snapped up beaten-down miners, though gains were limited by hawkish comments from more U.S. Federal Reserve officials.
At (GMT 14:19),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.69 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.07 percent, France’s CAC was up 1.17 .
Commodities Recap
Gold steadied on Friday as the dollar eased, but was still bound for a weekly dip following indications from U.S. Federal Reserve officials that more interest rate hikes were in the offing.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,760.98 per ounce by 1157 GMT, set for a weekly decline of about 0.5%. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,762.20.
Oil fell around 2% on Friday and was on track for a second weekly decline, pressured by concern about weakening demand in China and further interest rate rises by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Brent crude was down $1.80, or 2%, at $87.98 a barrel by 1325 GMT, having touched $87.86 earlier, the lowest since Oct. 3. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $1.52 or 1.9% at $80.12.