Posted at 14 October 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Sep HICP (MoM) -0.5%, -0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•French Sep CPI (MoM) -0.6%, -0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•French Sep HICP (YoY) 6.2%,6.2% forecast, 6.6% previous
•Spanish Sep CPI (YoY) 8.9%, 9.0% forecast, 10.5% previous
•Spanish Sep HICP (YoY) 9.0%, 9.3% forecast, 10.5% previous
•EU Aug Trade Balance -50.9B , -34.0B previous
Looking Ahead – Economic data (GMT)
•12:30 Canada Aug Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.8% forecast, -0.6% previous
•12:30 US Sep Retail Control (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Sep Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous
•12:30 US Sep Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% , 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Sep Export Price Index (MoM ) -1.0% forecast, -1.6% previous
•12:30 US Sep Import Price Index (MoM) -1.1% forecast, -1.0% previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -1.8% forecast, -0.9% previous
•14:00 US Oct Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.70% previous
•14:00 US Oct Michigan Consumer Sentiment 59.0 forecast, 58.6 previous
•14:00 US Oct US Michigan Consumer Expectations 58.5 forecast, 58.0 previous
•14:00 US Aug Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.6% previous
•14:00 US Aug Business Inventories (MoM) 0.9% forecast, 0.6% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 602 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 762 previous
•18:00 USD Federal Budget Balance -220.0B previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•14:30 US Fed Governor Cook Speaks
•15:00 US IMF Meetings
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Friday after a top European Central Bank policymaker flagged recession risks and investors grew wary of pricing in more aggressive monetary tightening.The ECB is prepared for a possible technical recession paired with high inflation, which must be brought down to maintain market confidence, European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos said.On the data front, the euro zone posted in August its largest trade deficit since it expanded to 19 countries in 2015, as high energy prices boosted its import bill, official estimates released on Friday showed. The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said that the euro zone's balance for trade in goods with the rest of the world in August was in the red by nearly 51 billion euros ($49.7 billion). Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9796(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9888 (38.2%ib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9705(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9635(Oct 13th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against dollar on Friday as investors waited to see whether the Truss government would scrap many of the unfunded tax cuts which have wreaked havoc in markets. The British currency gained as reports circulated on Thursday that Prime Minister Liz Truss was weighing a U-turn on elements of the plan Kwarteng announced three weeks ago that triggered turmoil in financial markets, and sent yields on British government bonds soaring and the pound to a record low against the dollar of $1.0327. The pound was last at $1.1332 , down 0.38% on the day after having jumped over 2% on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1377 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1516 (50DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1208 (9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1128 (Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Friday as surging U.S. inflation will likely lead to higher interest rates for longer. Much-anticipated U.S. data on Thursday showed core inflation - which excludes food and fuel prices - came in above forecasts at 6.6%, the biggest annual increase in 40 years, driven by large price gains in the services sector.The data reinforced views that interest rates would stay higher for longer . Following the strong U.S. inflation report, the markets have now fully priced in a 75 basis point hike from the Fed at its November meeting and a 71.5% probability for another jumbo rate hike in December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0044(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0080(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9994(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9945(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar held near fresh 32-year high on the yen on Friday as red-hot U.S. inflation data pointed to more aggressive interest rate hikes by Federal Reserve. Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer prices increased more-than-expected in September, providing ammunition to the Fed to deliver another big rate hike. Focus now shifts to next month's Fed meeting where it is expected to deliver a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point rate increase. Traders were also waiting for U.S. retail sales data due at 1230 GMT. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.83 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.11 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.66(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.28(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Friday to extend gains from the previous session amid hopes that U.S. inflation may have peaked around 8 percent and would trend lower in the coming months.
At (GMT 11:13 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.38 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.42percent, France’s CAC was last up by 1.76 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped on Friday and was on track for a weekly fall, as a stronger U.S. dollar and prospects of more steep rate hikes from the Federal Reserve dented demand for the non-yielding bullion.
Spot gold was down 0.5% to $1,658.10 per ounce by 0920 GMT. Prices have fallen more than 2% so far this week.U.S. gold futures slipped 0.8% to $1,664.30.
Oil prices were stable on Friday as support from a large cut to the OPEC+ supply target and a weaker dollar were countered by global recession fears and weak oil demand in China.
Brent crude futures were down 31 cents, or 0.3%, at $94.26 a barrel at 0924 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $88.86.