Posted at 27 September 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Aug Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -0.9%,1.1% previous
•US Aug Durable Goods Orders (MoM) -0.2%,-0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous
•US AugCore Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US Aug Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 1.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 11.0%,10.5% previous
•US Jul S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 16.1%,17.0% forecast, 18.6% previous
•US Jul S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) -0.8%,0.4% previous
•US Jul S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) -0.4%,0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Jul House Price Index (YoY) 13.9%,16.2% previous
•US Sep Richmond Services Index 0,-12 previous
•US Aug New Home Sales 685K, 500K forecast, 511K previous
•US Sep CB Consumer Confidence 108.0,104.5 forecast, 103.2 previous
•US Sep Richmond Manufacturing Shipments 14,-8 previous
•US Sep Aug New Home Sales (MoM) 28.8%,-12.6% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•01:30 Australia Aug Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 1.3% previous
• 05:00 Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) 1.4% previous
• 05:00 Japan Leading Index 99.6 previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (MoM) -0.7% forecast, -0.3% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Tuesday as the dollar paused for breath after recent surge. Markets remain nervous, however, after U.S. Federal Reserve officials on Monday said their priority remained controlling domestic inflation. Markets are pricing in a 76% probability of a further 75 basis point move at the next Federal Reserve meeting in November.Central bank speakers on Tuesday include Fed chair Jerome Powell and ECB president Christine Lagarde. The European single currency was up 0.24% on the day at $0.9629 after hitting a 20-year low a day ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.97168(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9803(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9600(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9555(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound was higher against the dollar on Tuesday, a day after hitting a record low, as the Bank of England and UK Treasury attempted to soothe market concerns after the government announced a raft of unfunded tax cuts. The battered pound hit an all-time low of $1.0327 on Monday, prompting calls for a big inter-meeting interest rate hike from the Bank of England, and although the bank and government acknowledged the turmoil in markets, they stopped short of any concrete action. In remarks on Tuesday, BoE chief economist Huw Pill said the central bank is likely to deliver a “significant policy response” to the government’s tax cuts but that it should wait until its next scheduled meeting before making its move. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0858(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0944(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0664(23.6%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.0600(Psychological level).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as oil prices rose, but the move was limited as investors worried that the continued march higher in bond yields would tip the global economy into recession. The U.S. 10-year yield, a major benchmark for borrowing costs globally, climbed to a fresh 12-year high and Wall Street sank deeper into a bear market. Oil clawed back some of its recent decline, supported by supply curbs in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Ian. U.S. crude oil futures settled 2.3% higher at $78.50 a barrel. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3720 to the U.S. dollar, after trading in a range of 1.3641 to 1.3775. On Monday, it touched its weakest intraday level since May 2020 at 1.3808.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2854 (38.2%fib) upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2900 (50%fib ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2811 (21 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2788(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Tuesday as Federal Reserve policymakers talked about more interest rate hikes. The greenback was up against the euro but losing ground against the British pound and Japan's yen with all eyes on central banks and the impact on economic growth from their efforts to tame inflation. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said in a WSJ Live interview Tuesday that the Fed needs to keep tightening until it has evidence underlying inflation is heading down, then should pause and "let the tightening work its way through the economy" to see if it has done enough. The dollar up 0.1% against the yen at 144.86. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.08(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.95 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.62(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.85(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks rebounded on Tuesday, as the dollar paused for breath and U.K. ten-year gilt yields slipped back after their recent surges.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.52 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0 .72 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.27 percent.
U.S. stocks gave up early gains to fall deeper into a bear market on Tuesday as investors remained nervous about a potential global recession.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.43% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.21% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.25% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to their highest level in more than 12 years as investors braced for higher interest rates that could well be here for longer amid hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials that affirmed their commitment to stamping out persistently high inflation.
U.S. 10-year yield hit 3.974% , the highest since April 2010. It was last up 8.3 basis points (bps) at 3.9717%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rebounded from a 2-1/2-year low on Tuesday as a slight pause in the dollar rally helped restore greenback-priced bullion’s allure, although risks from looming rate hikes persisted.
Spot gold was 0.5% higher at $1,629.69 per ounce by 1:46 p.m. EDT (1746 GMT), after climbing over 1% to $1,642.29 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures settled up 0.2% at $1,636.20.
Oil rose about $2 a barrel on Tuesday from a nine-month low a day earlier, supported by supply curbs in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Ian and as the U.S. dollar eased from its strongest level in two decades.
Brent crude settled at$86.27 a barrel, up $2.21, or 2.6% On Monday it fell as low as $83.65, the lowest since January. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $78.50, up $1.79, or 2%.