Posted at 08 September 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q2) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•Swiss Aug Unemployment Rate n.s.a 2.0%, 2.0% forecast, 2.0% previous
•Swiss Aug Unemployment Rate s.a 2.1%, 2.2%forecast, 2.2% previous
•French Jul Trade Balance -14.5B, -13.6B forecast, -13.1B previous
•French Jul Imports 63.3B, 62.8B previous
•French Jul Current Account -5.30B, -1.60B previous
• Irish Aug HICP (YoY) 9.0%, 9.6% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•12:15 ECB Marginal Lending Facility 0.75% previous
• 12:15 ECB Sep Interest Rate Decision 1.25% forecast, 0.50% previous
• 12:15 ECB Sep Deposit Facility Rate 0.50% forecast, 0.00 previous
• 12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 241.50K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 240K forecast, 232K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,435K forecast, 1,438K previous
•15:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.250M forecast, -3.326M previous
• 15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 2.470% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•12:15 ECB Supervisory Board Member Fernandez-Bollo Speaks
• 12:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•12:45 ECB Press Conference
• 13:10 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
•14:15 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•15:25 Canada BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro was hovering above two-decade low on Thursday as investors awaited a policy decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) and comments from the head of the Federal Reserve for insight on the path for global monetary tightening. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points (bps), taking its deposit rate above zero for the first time since 2012, but the option of a smaller 50 basis point hike hasn't been ruled out. The euro was last trading around 1.0011, holding above its lowest level since late 2002 of $0.9864 as Europe's energy crisis keeps the single currency under pressure and the dollar reigns as the Fed reiterates its commitment to bring inflation down to target.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0022(20DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0064(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9990(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9924(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling recovered against on Thursday ahead of the announcement of new policies designed to deal with the rising cost of energy in Britain and a very closely watched meeting by the European Central Bank. The day's other main event is a meeting by the European Central Bank. Markets are waiting to see whether the ECB will go for a large, 50-basis-point rate hike or a record 75-basis-point one. Concerned that sky-high inflation is getting increasingly entrenched, policymakers are scrambling to keep a lid on the bloc's most damaging bout of price growth in nearly half a century as it eats up household savings and weighs on business output. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1567(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1667(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1477(50%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.1328(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against Swiss franc on Thursday as investors pondered the path of global monetary policy ahead of a European Central Bank rate decision and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to participate in a discussion at 1310 GMT overlapping with ECB chief Lagarde's post-decision press conference with Fed officials soon due to enter into a blackout period prior to the central bank's Sept. 20-21 meeting. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six major counterparts, edged up 0.1% lower to 109.82, after hitting a peak at 110.79 on Wednesday, a level not seen since June 2002. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9751(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9787(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9709(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9670(50% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Thursday as investors looked for fresh insight on the global monetary tightening path from a European Central Bank rate decision and comments from the head of the Federal Reserve. Japan's yen showed some resilience on Thursday, trading little changed at 143.77 per dollar , after reaching a 24-year low of 144.99 in the previous session.The yen has been a particular victim of recent dollar strength, partly due to its sensitivity to rising long-term U.S. yields as hawkish Fed bets ramped up and the Bank of Japan remains the holdout dovish central bank. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.51(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.40(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.21(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 142.24(5DMA).
Equities Recap
European stocks rose in cautious trade on Thursday, as investors await the ECB rate decision and an announcement on U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss's energy bill support package later in the day.
At (GMT 11:31),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.57 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.06percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold struggled for momentum on Thursday as investors refrained from taking big positions ahead of a European Central Bank policy decision and comments from the Federal Reserve chairman.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,717.30 per ounce, as of 0852 GMT, after rising nearly 1% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% higher to $1,728.60.
Oil prices fell on Thursday, extending sharp losses from the previous session, as China's extension of lockdown measures to curb the COVID-19 spread exacerbated concerns that a slowdown in economic activity globally would hit fuel demand.
Brent crude futures lost 40 cents, or 0.4%, to $87.60 per barrel by 1002 GMT, near a late-January low. U.S. crude futures were down 41 cents, or 0.5%, at $81.53 a barrel, near a mid-January low.