Posted at 02 September 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. non-farm payrolls data due at 1230 GMT
•German Jul Imports (MoM) -1.5%, 0.8% forecast, 0.2% previous
•German Jul Trade Balance 5.4B, 4.8B forecast, 6.4B previous
•German Jul Exports (MoM) -2.1%, -2.3% forecast, 4.5% previous
•Swiss Employment Level (Q2) 5.316M forecast, 5.227M previous
•EU July PPI (YoY) 37.9%, 35.8% forecast, 35.8% previous
•EU July PPI (MoM) 4.0%, 2.5% forecast,1.1% previous
•Irish GDP (YoY) (Q2) 11.1% forecast, 10.7% previous
•Irish GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 1.8% forecast, 6.3% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) -0.5% previous
•12:30 US Aug U6 Unemployment Rate 6.7% previous
•12:30 US Aug Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 5.3% forecast, 5.2% previous
•12:30 US Aug Unemployment Rate 3.5% forecast, 3.5% previous
•12:30 US Aug Nonfarm Payrolls 300K forecast,528K previous
•12:30 US Aug Private Nonfarm Payrolls 300K forecast, 471K previous
•12:30 US Aug Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.5% previous
•12:30 US Aug Manufacturing Payrolls 20K forecast, 30K previous
•12:30 US Aug Average Weekly Hours 34.6 forecast, 34.6 previous
•14:00 US Jul Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 1.4% previous
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 1.2% previous
•14:00 US Jul Factory Orders (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 2.0% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 605 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 765 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro steadied against dollar on Friday as investors awaited U.S. jobs data. A poll expects the U.S. economy will have added 300,000 jobs in August, down from the 528,000 in July that had come as an upward surprise, and a slight decline in average earnings on a monthly basis. U.S. money markets currently price in over a 70% chance of a 75 bps Fed move this month. Another strong labour market print would cement expectations for the 75 bps move. The euro retraced some of the previous day's losses against the dollar and inched back above parity, up 0.6% to $1.00045. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.1057(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0107(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0016 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9963(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound steadied on Friday as some calm returned at the end of a bruising week in which concerns about the UK’s deteriorating economic outlook, the policy direction under a new prime minister and demand for dollars all hurt the British currency. Sterling is on course for a weekly fall of nearly 1.5% versus the dollar, and next week could be volatile too as Britain’s new prime minister will be announced on Monday, when the ruling Conservative Party’s leadership contest concludes. On Friday the pound rose 0.1% to $1.1551 after hitting $1.1499 on Thursday, its weakest since the market panic of March 2020 during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1622(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1657(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1520(23.6%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.1475(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors focused on U.S. jobs data due later on Friday that could bolster the case for aggressive interest rate hikes.The U.S. currency has been riding high since Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming last Friday that rates would need to be high "for some time" to combat inflation. The dollar index which tracks the currency against six counterparts - leapt to a fresh 20-year high on Thursday of 109.99, bolstered by robust U.S. data showing a fall in unemployment claims.. At 11:40 GMT, the dollar was 0.23 percent higher versus the Swiss franc at 0.9833 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9851(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9895(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9760(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9719(9DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against yen on Friday as investors focused on U.S. jobs data due later on Friday that could bolster the case for aggressive interest rate hikes. U.S. August nonfarm payroll figures due at 1230 GMT on Friday are expected to show 300,000 jobs were added, while unemployment hovered at 3.5%.Strong data is seen strengthening the Fed's ability to raise rates to curb inflation without crimping growth.Futures markets have priced in as much as a 75% chance the Fed will hike by 75 basis points at its September policy meeting, compared with a 69% probability a day ago. .. The dollar surged above 140 yen for the first time since 1998 on Thursday, and the yen fell to a fresh trough of 140.43 on the day. It was last broadly flat at 140.305. Strong resistance can be seen at 140.65(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 139.90(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 139.45(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks rose nearly 1% on Friday at the end of a week that was battered by concerns over a spike in energy prices, red-hot inflation and higher bets of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank next week.
At (GMT 11:29),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.72% percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.34 % percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.56% percent
Commodities Recap
Gold on Friday rose above the important psychological level of $1,700 as the dollar paused while investors awaited a key U.S. jobs data amid expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve policy continuing over the coming months.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,704.90 per ounce by 0926 GMT. The metal was down about 2% for the week so far, having touched a six-week low of $1,687.60 on Thursday.
Oil prices climbed on Friday on expectations that OPEC+ will discuss output cuts at a meeting on Sept. 5, though concern over China's COVID-19 curbs and weakness in the global economy continued to limit gains.
Brent crude futures rose $1.42, or 1.5%, to $93.78 a barrel by 1140 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced $1.43, or 1.7%, to $88.04.