Posted at 01 September 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Aug Nationwide HPI (MoM) 0.8%, 0.1%forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK Aug Nationwide HPI (YoY) 10.0%, 8.9% forecast, 11.0% previous
•German Jul Retail Sales (YoY) -2.6%, -6.5% forecast, -8.8% previous
•German Jul Retail Sales (MoM) 1.9%, -0.4% forecast, -1.6% previous
,•Swiss Aug CPI (YoY) 3.5%,3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous
•Swiss Jul Retail Sales (YoY) 2.6%,0.9% forecast,1.2% previous
•French GDP (YoY)4.2% ,4.2% forecast,4.8% previous
•French Aug Manufacturing PMI 50.6,49.0 forecast, 49.5 previous
•German Aug Manufacturing PMI 49.1, 49.8 forecast,49.3 previous
•EU Aug Manufacturing PMI 49.6, 49.7 forecast,49.7 previous
•UK Aug Manufacturing PMI 47.3,46.0 forecast,46.0 previous
•EU Jul Unemployment Rate 6.6%,6.6% forecast,6.6% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 10.7% forecast, 10.8% previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)-4.5% forecast,-4.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Building Permits (MoM) -0.5% forecast,-1.5% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 248K forecast,243K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,438K forecast,1,415K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 247.00K previous
•13:30 Canada Aug Manufacturing PMI 52.5 previous
•13:45 US Aug Manufacturing PMI 51.3 forecast, 51.3 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 48.0 previous
•14:00 US Jul Construction Spending (MoM) -0.4% forecast, -1.1% previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Manufacturing Employment 49.0 forecast, 49.9 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.0 forecast, 52.8 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Manufacturing Prices 55.5 forecast,60.0 previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 58B forecast,60B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro slipped against dollar on Thursday but was clinging on above parity at $1.0014, as red-hot inflation stoked interest rate expectations in Europe.Euro zone inflation rose to a record high at 9.1% in August, data released on Wednesday showed, solidifying the case for further big European Central Bank rate hikes to tame it. Markets have priced in about a 40% chance the ECB will increase rates by 75 basis points next week , even as risks of a painful recession rise along with gas prices. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.1057(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0107(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0016 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9963(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell against the dollar on Thursday, adding to August losses that were its worst since late 2016, as storm clouds gather over the British economy. The pound lost 4.6% against the dollar last month in its worst performance since October 2016, fuelled by concerns about slowing growth in the British economy as inflation gathers pace.British inflation soared to 10% in July, its highest in 40 years, and is predicted to climb higher, squeezing the pay packages of hard-hit consumers further. British government bonds are suffering, too, enduring their biggest monthly fall since 1994.By 0854 GMT, the pound was down 0.2% at $1.15955, having fallen as far as $1.1570, its lowest since March 2020. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1620(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1688(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1549(23.6%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(Psychological level).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Thursday as dollar firmed on prospects of aggressive interest rate hikes by major central banks to tame inflation. This month, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are expected to raise borrowing costs aggressively. Data overnight showed euro zone inflation had risen to another record high last month, solidifying the case for a 75 basis point (bps) rate hike from the ECB next week. At 12:20 GMT, the dollar was 0.45 percent higher versus the Swiss franc at 0.9712 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9812(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9887(July 14th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.99727(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.99691(9DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against yen on Thursday as investors braced for higher U.S. interest rates while expecting anchored Japanese rates to go nowhere anytime soon. Expectations for a 75-basis-point U.S. rate hike at next month's Federal Reserve meeting are rising on the back of solid economic data, with Fed funds futures last pointing to a 75% chance of such an increase. Markets are awaiting U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday and they may not like a strong number if it supports the basis for a continuation of aggressive rate hikes, which could further boost the U.S. dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 139.65(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 138.20(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 137.87(5DMA).
Equities Recap
The main European stocks index skidded to its lowest in seven weeks in a rough start to September on deepening worries about aggressive rate hikes and record-high inflation in the region.
At (GMT 11:29),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.37% percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.18 % percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.29% percent
Commodities Recap
Gold prices briefly slid below the key $1,700 psychological level for the first time in six weeks on Thursday, as major central banks stuck to an aggressive stance to combat inflation, dulling demand for non-yielding bullion.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,702.19 per ounce by 1110 GMT, having touched $1,698.70 earlier, its lowest since July 21. U.S. gold futures shed 0.8% to $1,713.20.
Oil prices tumbled on Thursday, as new COVID-19 lockdown measures in China added to worries that high inflation and interest rate hikes are denting fuel demand.
Brent crude futures fell $2.10, or 2.2%, to $93.54 a barrel by 1013 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slid $1.86, or 2.1%, to $87.69 a barrel.