Posted at 30 August 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Spanish CPI (YoY) 10.4%, 10.9% forecast, 10.8% previous
•Spanish Jul Retail Sales (YoY) -0.5%, 1.0% previous
•Spanish Aug HICP (YoY) 10.3% ,10.3% forecast, 10.7% previous
•Italian Jun Industrial Sales (MoM) -0.20%, 1.40% previous
•UK Net Lending to Individuals 6.5B, 6.6B forecast, 7.1B previous
•UK Jul BoE Consumer Credit 1.425B, 1.500B forecast, 1.781B previous
•UK Jul Mortgage Lending 5.05B, 5.05B forecast, 5.27B previous
•UK Jul Mortgage Approvals 63.77K, 61.73K forecast, 63.73K previous
•EU Aug Consumer Inflation Expectation 36.8 forecast, 42.8 previous
•EU Aug Business and Consumer Survey 97.6, 98.0 forecast, 99.0 previous
•EU Aug Services Sentiment 8.7 , 8.7 forecast, 10.7 previous
•EU Aug Belgium CPI (MoM) 0.81% forecast, 0.83% previous
•German Aug CPI (MoM) 0.3% , 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Jun S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 1.0% forecast, 1.3% previous
•12:30 US House Jun Price Index 398.1 previous
•12:30 US S&P/CS Jun HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 19.5% forecast, 20.5% previous
•12:30 US S&P/CS Jun HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 1.5% previous
•14:00 US Jul JOLTs Job Openings 10.475M forecast, 10.698M previous
•14:00 US Aug CB Consumer Confidence 97.9 forecast, 95.7 previous
•14:30 US Aug Dallas Fed Services Revenues 9.5 previous
•14:30 US Aug Texas Services Sector Outlook -10.9 previous
•20:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -5.632M previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
• 15:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro climbed past parity against dollar on Tuesday as increased expectation of super-sized European Central Bank rate hike boosted euro. Market pricing also indicates roughly a 50% chance of a massive 75 basis point interest rate increase at the ECB's next meeting after a parade of ECB speakers at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole backed the case for a big hike, though this pricing came down a little on Tuesday. Traders awaited speeches from ECB speakers due to make public remarks later on Tuesday, which could guide markets towards or away from such a large rate increase. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.1063(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0093(Aug 26th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9979(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9900(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound fell against dollar on Tuesday as mounting concern about the Uk’s economic weighed on sterling. Britain's services businesses reported a record increase in costs over the past three months and are downbeat about the future, as inflationary headwinds look set to squeeze demand further, the Confederation of British Industry said on Tuesday. The CBI's overall business optimism balance - which measures the difference between the percentage of firms who are upbeat and downbeat - sank to its weakest since May 2020, the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, for both consumer and business services. The CBI data was based on a survey of 199 firms between July 26 and Aug. 15. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1757(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1804(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1671(23.6%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.1570(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors turned their focus to this week’s U.S. labour market report, to gauge if interest rate hikes that have been priced in around the world are justified. At the Jackson Hole conference last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and European Central Bank speakers struck a hawkish tone, driving selling of bonds and equities as traders jacked up near-term interest rate expectations. U.S. non-farm payrolls data is due on Friday, and markets may not like a strong number if it supports the basis for a continuation of aggressive interest rate hikes. At 12:20 GMT, the dollar was 0.45 percent higher versus the Swiss franc at 0.9712 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9735(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9777(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9665(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9631(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Tuesday as the greenback struggled to regain momentum after being beaten back from recent high. Still, worries remained of expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain higher for longer than markets have been expecting after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish speech on Friday to the Jackson Hole economic symposium in the United States. At the Jackson Hole central banking conference in Wyoming last week, the Fed struck a hawkish tone, pledging all efforts to tame high inflation even if economic growth takes a hit. On the data front, investors will scan the U.S. Consumer Confidence report due later in the day. Strong resistance can be seen at 138.65(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 139.30(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 137.45(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 136.99(38.2%fib).
EquitiesRecap
European shares rose on Tuesday following a two-day slump as banking stocks boosted bourses on the back of higher interest rate expectations, though fears around a burgeoning energy crisis and looming recession kept gains in check.
At (GMT 12:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.01% percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.50 % percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.71% percent
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday on expectations of more interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, while a softer dollar capped declines.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,733.87 per ounce by 1121 GMT after hitting a one-month low of $1,719.56 on Monday. U.S. gold futures shed 0.3% to $1,745.20.
Oil prices fell by more than $3 a barrel on Tuesday on fears that an inflation-induced weakening of global economies would soften fuel demand, and as Iraqi crude exports have been unaffected by clashes.
Brent crude futures for October settlement fell $3.81, or 3.63%, to $101.28 a barrel by 1156 GMT, after hitting a session low of $100.90 a barrel.