Posted at 17 August 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Fed minutes suggest officials still committed to raising rates
•Indexes: Dow down 0.5%, S&P 500 down 0.7%, Nasdaq down 1.3%
•U.S. crude stocks fall 7.1 mln barrels -EIA
• US Jul Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4% ,-0.1% forecast, 1.0% previous
• US Jul Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.7%,0.7% previous
• US Jul Retail Sales (MoM) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 1.0% previous
• US Jul Retail Control (MoM) 0.8%, 0.6% forecast, 0.8% previous
• US Jun Retail Inventories Ex Auto 1.5%,1.6% forecast, 1.4% previous
• US Jun Business Inventories (MoM) 1.4%,1.4% forecast, 1.4% previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories -7.056M,-0.275M forecast, 5.458M previous
• US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.192M,0.723M previous
Looking Ahead – Economic data (GMT)
• 01:30 Australia Jul Employment Change 25.0K forecast, 88.4K previous
• 01:30 Australia Jul Unemployment Rate Jul 3.5% forecast,3.5% previous
• 01:30 Australia Jul Participation Rate (Jul) 66.8% forecast, 66.8% previous
•01:30 Australia Jul Full Employment Change 52.9K previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries’
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against dollar on Wednesday after revised official data showed euro zone economic growth was slightly less robust in the second quarter than previously estimated. Euro zone economic growth was slightly less robust in the second quarter than forecast but still strong, and employment rose again, revised data from the European statistics office showed on Wednesday. Eurostat said gross domestic product in the 19 countries using the euro rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in April-June for a 3.9% year-on-year rise. The office had previously estimated the quarterly growth at 0.7% and the year-on-year rise at 4.0%. The euro was broadly unchanged versus the dollar at $1.0174. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0218(14DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0308(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0114(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0086(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower against dollar on Wednesday after data showed inflation climbed to its highest level in more than four decades in July, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to bring down prices but increasing the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. Consumer price inflation rose to 10.1% in July, its highest since February 1982, official figures showed. The increase was above economists' expectations in a poll for inflation to rise to 9.8%. Money markets are pricing in about an 88% chance of a 50 basis point rate rise from the central bank next month, little changed from before the data. But traders are now pricing in a further 200 basis points of tightening by May next year, taking the Bank Rate to 3.75%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2137(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2246(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2028(23.6%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.1943 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as investors digested minutes from the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting and awaited domestic retail sales data due at the end of the week. U.S. stocks pared losses but remained lower on the day as Fed officials saw "little evidence" late last month that U.S. inflation pressures were easing, and steeled themselves to force the economy to slow down as much as needed to control the surge in prices.Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.4% lower at 1.29 to the greenback, giving back nearly all of the previous day's gain. It traded in a range of 1.2828 to 1.2936 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2931(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2990 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2888 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2806 (11 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting showed that Fed officials are concerned the U.S. central bank could raise rates too far as part of its commitment to get inflation under control.In a glimpse of the emerging debate at the central bank, "many" participants noted a risk that the Fed "could tighten the stance of policy by more than necessary to restore price stability," a fact that they said made sensitivity to incoming data all the more important, the minutes showed. The size of the Fed’s next expected rate hike is expected to depend on consumer price inflation and jobs data for August, which will be released before its September meeting. The dollar index fell to 106.39 after the meeting minutes were released, before rebounding back to 106.55, up 0.09% on the day. Strong resistance can be seen at 135.23(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 136.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.09(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 132.47 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed lower on Wednesday, snapping a five-day winning streak, as worries about slowing growth and rising inflation rendered the mood bearish.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.27 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 2.04 percent, and France’s CAC finished the down by 0.98 percent.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday, with indexes volatile after minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting in July suggested policymakers may be less aggressive than previously thought when they raise interest rates in September.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.5% percent, S&P 500 closed down 0.7% percent, Nasdaq closed down 1.18 percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasuries showed a notable move to the downside during trading on Wednesday, extending the pullback seen in the previous session.
The twenty-year bond auction drew a high yield of 3.380 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.30, while the ten previous twenty-year bond auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54.
Commodities Recap
Gold pared some losses on Wednesday after minutes from a Federal Reserve meeting showed the pace of future hikes would depend on incoming economic data, while the dollar also added pressure on prices.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,766.29 per ounce by 2:36 p.m. ET (1936 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled down 0.7% to $1,776.7.
Oil prices rose about 1.5% after hitting a six-month low on Wednesday, as a steeper-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stocks outweighed concerns over rising Russian output and exports as well as recession fears.
Brent crude settled $1.31, or 1.42% higher at $93.65 per barrel. Earlier in the day, recession worries had pushed the benchmark price to its lowest since February at $91.51.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.58, or 1.8%, to $88.11 per barrel.