Posted at 16 July 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Jun Export Price Index (MoM) 0.7%,1.2% forecast, 2.8% previous
•US Jun Retail Control (MoM) 0.8%,0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Jun Core Retail Sales (MoM) 1.0%,0.6% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US Jun Retail Sales (MoM) 1.0%,0.8% forecast, -0.3% previous
•US Import Price Index (MoM) 0.2%, 0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous
•Canada May Foreign Securities Purchases 2.35B,22.23B previous
•Canada May Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians 0.57B,29.20B previous
•US Jul NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 11.10 ,-2.00 forecast, -1.20 previous
•US Jun Retail Sales (YoY) 8.42% ,8.20 % previous
•Canada May Wholesale Sales (MoM) 1.6%, 2.0% forecast, -0.5% previous
•US Jun Industrial Production (YoY) 4.16%, 5.43% previous
•US Jun Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.5%,-0.1%forecast, -0.2% previous
•US Jun Capacity Utilization Rate 80.0%,80.6% forecast, 80.8% previous
•US Jun Industrial Production (MoM) -0.2%,0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Jul Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.80%,3.10% previous
• US Jul Michigan Consumer Sentiment 51.1,49.9 forecast, 50.0 previous
• US Michigan Consumer Expectations 47.3, 47.0 forecast, 47.5 previous
• US May Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.8%,0.8% previous
• US May Business Inventories (MoM) 1.4%, 1.3% forecast,1.2% previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 599 ,597 previous
• US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 756, 752 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• No data Ahead
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro rose against the U.S. dollar on Friday as the market reassessed expectations over the Federal Reserve's tightening path while,Italy's political turmoil remained in focus. The European Central Bank is due to meet next week amid Italy's political turmoil. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps, well short of the 75-bps that the Fed could now hike in July.The eurozone is grappling with a deepening energy crisis as Russia shut down a gas pipeline for a week for regular maintenance, making markets nervous about whether it will come back online, with Russia saying it will depend on demand and sanctions. The euro gained 0.57% to $1.0080. It traded as low as $0.9952 on Thursday, the weakest since December 2002.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0138 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0177(11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0060 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0000 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged up against the dollar on Friday, but stayed near more than a two-year low as persistent recession fears and political uncertainty weighed on sentiment. The pound faces additional headwinds from a sharp slowdown in the UK economy combined with domestic political uncertainty. With no clear candidate to succeed incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson, there are concerns about future economic policy and in particular the approach to Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol. The pound was up 0.2% to $1.18664, but started the day down and not far off a low of $1.1761 hit on Thursday its lowest since March 2020. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1869(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2022 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.17739 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1688 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback on Friday as weaker dollar and higher oil prices boosted commodity linked Canadian dollar. Brent crude futures settled at $101.16 a barrel, rising $2.06, or 2.1%, while West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $97.59 a barrel, gaining $1.81, or 1.9%. On the data front, Canada's wholesale trade rose 1.6% in May from April, driven by higher sales in the food, beverage and tobacco sub-sector and machinery, equipment and supplies sub-sector, Statistics Canada said on Friday. Sales increased in five of the seven sub-sectors, accounting for 69.7% of wholesale trade.The Canadian dollar was trading 0.6% higher at C$1.3038 to the greenback, or 76.7 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3038 to 1.3135. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3078(July 5th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3134 (M23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3026 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2939(11 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Friday as investors reduced their expectations of an aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month . Even with the pullback, the dollar index is on track for a third winning week, up 1.58% from last Friday on both bets for an increasingly aggressive Fed and as worries about a resulting recession fueled demand for the currency as a safe haven. Major currencies came under pressure this week as traders, increasingly fearful of a recession, fled to the safe-haven dollar which is at a two-decade high. The yen firmed 0.2% to 138.8, retreating from lows of almost 140 per dollar, levels last hit in 1998. Strong resistance can be seen at 139.30 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 137.80 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 136.69 (11DMA).
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Friday after two Fed officials signaled support for a second straight 75 basis point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting later this month, easing some fears of a 100 basis point rate hike.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.69 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 2.79 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 2.04 percent.
US stocks closed sharply higher on Friday, ending several days of sell-offs as rally was fueled by upbeat earnings, strong economic data and easing fears of a larger-than-expected rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
Dow Jones closed up by 2.15% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.92% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.92% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields fell slightly on Friday as the market reassessed expectations on the US Federal Reserve's tightening path, amid data pointing to lower inflation expectations and and economic activity holding up.
Yields on the 10-year benchmark U.S. government bonds went down to 2.93% on Friday from 2.959% on Thursday, while yields on two-year debt , which are more sensitive to rate expectations, declined to 3.138% on Friday from 3.145%.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell on Friday, heading for a fifth straight weekly loss, brought down by broad dollar strength amid prospects for sharp hikes by the US Federal Reserve.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,704.30 per ounce by 1750 GMT, and has lost around 2.2% so far this week. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.1% at $1,703.6.
Oil rose on Friday after a US official told Reuters that an immediate increase in Saudi oil production was not expected, with investors questioning whether OPEC has scope to boost crude production significantly.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,704.30 per ounce by 1750 GMT, and has lost around 2.2% so far this week. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.1% at $1,703.6.