Posted at 15 July 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Initial Jobless Claims 244K, 235K forecast, 235K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,331K, 1,383K forecast, 1,375K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 235.75K, 232.50K previous
•US Jun Core PPI (MoM) 0.4%,0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US Jun PPI (MoM) 1.1%,0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous
•Canada May Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -2.0%,-2.0% forecast, 1.7% previous
•US Natural Gas Storage 58B, 58B forecast, 60B previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction 1.980%,1.530% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction 2.270%,1.840% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 02:00 China Chinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q2) 4.8% previous
•02:00 China Jun Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 6.0% forecast, 6.2% previous
•02:00 China GDP (YoY) (Q2) 1.0% forecast, 4.8% previous
•02:00 China Jun Industrial Production (YoY) 4.1% forecast, 0.7% previous
•02:00 China GDP (QoQ) (Q2)-1.5% forecast, 1.3% previous
•02:00 China Jun Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) 3.3% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro broke below the key level for the first time in almost two decades as euro was weighed by downgraded official economic forecasts for the euro zone and political strife in Italy. Trading was volatile on Thursday with the euro hitting 20-year lows after a party in Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi's coalition government failed to support a parliamentary confidence vote including measures to offset the cost of living crisis. The euro fell as much as 0.5% on the day and was last down 0.4% at $1.0024. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0021 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0166(38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0000 (Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9949 (23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell on Thursday, briefly hitting its lowest level since March 2020 below $1.18, as another bout of risk aversion led investors to buy dollars and dump currencies seen as riskier given the uncertain outlook. Traders are concerned about the outlook for the UK economy, fearing UK inflation could be stubbornly higher than elsewhere even as economic growth falters. The pound fell as much as 1.1% to $1.1761 , a new 27-month low after previously hitting one on Tuesday. Sterling later recovered to $1.1836. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1869(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2031 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1764 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1687(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened by more than 1% against the greenback on Thursday as the potential for aggressive tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve this month pressured Canadian dollar. U.S. crude prices settled 0.5% lower at $95.78 a barrel, after clawing back much of its earlier decline. Canadian factory sales fell by 2.0% in May from April, matching estimates, on lower sales in motor vehicles, as well as primary metals, data from Statistics Canada showed. The Canadian dollar was trading 1.1% lower at 1.3110 to the greenback, or 76.28 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest since November 2020 at 1.3223. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3155(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3199(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3094 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3050 (5 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose sharply against the Japanese yen on Wednesday as fears the U.S. Federal Reserve could opt for a more aggressive interest rate hike this month to tackle sky-rocketing inflation boosted dollar. Traders have ramped up bets that the U.S. central bank could raise rates by 100 basis points when it meets on July 26-27. A hike of at least 75 basis points is seen as almost certain. The dollar strengthened more than 1% against the yen, pushing it above 139 yen per dollar for the first time since 1998. It was last up 1.1% at 138.95 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 140.00 (Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.98 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 137.96 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 137.08(38.2% fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks ended lower on Thursday as investors continued to react to hotter-than-expected US inflation data which has fuelled expectations that the Fed could hike rates aggressively in the coming months.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.63 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.86 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.41 percent.
The S&P 500 pared early losses to close slightly lower on Thursday after investors digested disappointing quarterly results from two major US banks and hotter-than-expected inflation data.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.46% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.30 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.03% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yield curve on Thursday narrowed its inversion from a level that was more than two-decades deep, after Federal Reserve officials said they support 75 basis points of tightening later this month instead of the 100 bps the market priced in earlier in the session.
Yields on 10-year benchmark U.S. debt US10YT=RR rose 4.2 bps to 2.948%, while yields on two-year debt , which are sensitive to rate expectations, was little changed at 3.136% U.S. two-year yields briefly fell after Fed's Waller's comments.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell more than 2% to a near-year low on Thursday as the dollar continued its strong rally amid rising expectations of a significant rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold fell 1.5% to $1,710.02 per ounce by 2:02 p.m. ET (1802 GMT), after falling over 2% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled down 1.7% to $1,705.8.
Oil prices ended lower on Thursday but erased almost all losses after falling more than $4 earlier in the session as investors focused on the prospect of a big US interest rate hike later this month that will stem inflation , but at the same time could affect oil demand .
Brent crude futures for September settled down 47 cents, or 0.5% to $99.10 a barrel and finished a third session in a row below $100.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery settled down $95.78 a barrel, or 0.5%, down 52 cents.