Posted at 13 July 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK May Industrial Production (MoM) 0.9%, 0.2% forecast,-0.6% previous
•UK May Trade Balance -21.45B,-21.20B forecast, -20.89B previous
•UK May Trade Balance Non-EU -10.37B, -10.99B previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) 0.4%,0.0% forecast, 0.8% previous
•UK GDP (MoM) 0.5%, 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change0.4%, 0.0% forecast,0.2% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) 3.5%,2.7% forecast, 8.7% previous
•UK Index of Services 0.1%,-0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• German Jun CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.1% forecast,0.9% previous
•UK May Manufacturing Production (MoM) 1.4%, 0.1% forecast, -0.6% previous
•French Jun HICP (MoM) ) 0.9%, 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous
•French Jun CPI (MoM) 0.7%,0.7% forecast, 0.7% previous
•EU May Industrial Production (YoY) 1.6% 0.3% forecast, -2.0% previous
•EU May Industrial Production (MoM) 0.8%,0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Jun CPI (MoM) 1.1% forecast, 1.0% previous
•12:30 US Jun Core CPI (YoY) 5.7% forecast, 6.0% previous
•12:30 US Jun Core CPI (MoM) 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous
•12:30 US Jun CPI (YoY) 8.8% forecast, 8.6% previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.154M forecast, 8.235M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -0.357M forecast, -2.497M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.069M previous
•18:00 US Jun Federal Budget -76.5B forecast, -66.0B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•14:00 Canada BoC Rate Statement
•14:00 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
•14:00 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.25% forecast, 1.50% previous
•15:00 Canada BOC Press Conference
• 18:00 US Beige Book
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro was hovering just above parity with the U.S. dollar on Wednesday while traders focused on U.S. data due later in the session that is expected to show inflation at a 40-year high. The euro has tumbled recently, as investors fear aggressive monetary policy tightening could cause a recession. Markets speculate that June U.S. inflation data, due at 1230 GMT, could prompt another rally in the dollar, bringing it at par with the single currency. The ECB, due to meet later this month, is seen delivering its first rate hike in more than a decade. Its move will follow the Fed's decision next week. A 75-basis-point hike by the Fed will likely be fully priced in should U.S. inflation data come in as expected. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0101 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0223(38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0000 (Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9949 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose slightly on Wednesday, helped by a broadly weaker dollar and after data showed the UK economy grew unexpectedly in May. Economic output expanded by 0.5% in May, although consumer services fell as the surge in inflation hit shoppers. Sterling rose 0.3% to $1.1937 by 11:00 GMT and was last up 0.2% at $1.1916. Against the euro, it was flat at 84.35 pence. The pound has fallen sharply in recent weeks to new two-year lows, largely because of a soaring dollar but also as investors worry about political uncertainty following the resignation of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1949(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2000 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1847 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1748 (Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as traders waited to see if U.S. inflation data later bolsters the case for another supersized Federal Reserve rate hike this month. Economists polled forecast headline U.S. inflation accelerated to 8.8% year-on-year in June, a 40-year high, which is likely to reinforce expectations of interest rate hikes to help the dollar. At (GMT 11:00), greenback dipped 0.53% versus the Swiss franc to 0.9725. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9885(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9874(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9762(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9689 (11DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Wednesday as investors took a breather ahead of U.S. inflation data. Economists polled expect the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the prices that urban consumers spend on a basket of goods, to have accelerated in June on both a monthly and annual basis, by 1.1% and 8.8%, respectively. An easing of annual core CPI is likely the most crucial element of the report, as investors look for further confirmation that inflation has peaked, which could potentially convince the Federal Reserve not to become even more aggressive in its interest rate hikes. Strong resistance can be seen at 137.45 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 138.26 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 136.15 (11 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 134.54 (38.2% fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks were moving lower on Wednesday, with banks and miners leading losses on fears that central bank moves to fight inflation would spark a recession.
At (GMT 11:43 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.76% percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.99% percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.79%percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices steadied on Wednesday after plummeting to a more than nine-month low, with investors awaiting U.S. inflation data for cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy tightening path.
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,728.09 per ounce by 0955 GMT, after dropping to its lowest since late-September at $1,721.98 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures were also up 0.1% at $1,726.70.
Oil edged up on Wednesday, a day after settling below $100 a barrel for the first time since April, and gains were limited by a U.S. supply report showing rising inventories and caution ahead of U.S. inflation data.
Brent crude was up 80 cents, or 0.8%, at $100.29 a barrel at 1120 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 74 cents, or 0.8%, to $96.58.