Posted at 09 July 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Canada Jun Employment Change 64.9%,23.5K forecast, 39.8K previous
•US Jun Participation Rate 64.9%,62.3% previous
•US Jun Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 5.1%,5.0% forecast, 5.2% previous
•US Jun Unemployment Rate 3.6%,3.6% forecast, 3.6% previous
•US Jun Average Weekly Hours 34.5, 34.6 forecast, 34.6 previous
•Canada Jun Unemployment Rate 4.9%, 5.1% forecast, 5.1% previous
•US Jun Manufacturing Payrolls 29K,15K forecast, 18K previous
•US Jun Nonfarm Payrolls 372K, 268K forecast, 390K previous
•US Jun Private Nonfarm Payrolls 381K, 240K forecast, 333K previous
•US Jun Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•Canada Jun Part Time Employment Change -39.1K, -95.8K previous
• Canada Jun Participation Rate 64.9%,65.3% forecast, 65.3% previous
•US May Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 0.5%,0.9% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 1.8%,2.0% previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 597, 595 previous
•US May Consumer Credit 22.35B, 31.90B forecast,38.07B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 01:30 China Jun CPI (MoM) -0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
• 01:30 China Jun PPI (YoY) 6.0% forecast, 6.4% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•08:50 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro was pinned at a 20-year low on Friday, licking its wounds at the end of its worst week in two months as investors braced for Europe to tip in to recession, while markets awaited U.S. jobs data to set the next direction for the dollar. The single currency has hit successive 20-year low this week on signs the euro zone economy will tip into recession. The euro is down more than 2% this week on fears that gas shortages loom in Europe and economic growth will suffer. It hit a two-decade trough of $1.0144 overnight. The single currency was down around 3% against the dollar this week Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0185(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0248 (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0097(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0000(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell against a strengthening dollar on Friday as an unfavourable macroeconomic backdrop overshadowed concerns about politics after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his resignation. Johnson announced he would stay on until his successor was chosen. Concerns about post-Brexit spats with the European Union also weakened the pound. The pound rose on Thursday after media reports of his imminent resignation earlier in the day and held on to the gains after Johnson said he was quitting. The pound fell 0.8% to $1.1996. It hit its lowest since March 2020 of $1.1877 on July 6. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2123(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2191(4th July high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2009(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1902(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar rose against the greenback on Friday, recovering a small portion of its weekly slide as data showing faster wage growth supported expectations of an unusually large rate hike by Bank of Canada next week. Canada's economy lost 43,200 jobs in June, missing expectations for a 23,500 gain, data from Statistics Canada showed. However, the unemployment rate fell to a new record low of 4.9% as fewer Canadians looked for work and average hourly rates rose 5.2% year-on-year, up from 3.9% in May. The loonie advanced 0.1% to 1.2955 per U.S. dollar , after trading in a range of 1.2937 to 1.3034. For the week, it was down 0.6% as investors worried about the risk of a global recession. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2967 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3036 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2923 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2831 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data fuelled expectations of another big rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this month . U.S. employers hired far more workers than expected in June and continued to raise wages at a steady clip, signs of persistent labor market strength that give the Federal Reserve ammunition to deliver another 75-basis-point interest rate hike this month. Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 372,000 jobs in June, well above economists' expectations. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%. Against the yen, the dollar gained 0.1% to 136.07 yen Strong resistance can be seen at 136.52 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 137.90(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 135.28(11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 132.68(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares ended higher on Friday, recovering after hitting session lows following bumper U.S. jobs data that strengthened the case for another big interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.10percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.34 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.44 percent.
Wall Street ended little changed on Friday after a volatile session in which investors tried to comprehend how a robust jobs report would influence the U.S. Federal Reserve and its plans to aggressively hike interest rates.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.15% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.08% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.12 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields rose after data on Friday showed employers added more jobs to their payrolls than expected in June, fueling expectations that the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by another 75 basis points this month.
Benchmark 10-year yields rose to 3.099%, up from around 2.989% before the data. Two-year yields jumped to 3.115%, from around 3.001%.
The two-year, 10-year part of the Treasury yield curve was at minus two basis points. The curve initially deepened its inversion to seven basis points, before steepening again.
Commodities recap
Oil prices rose about 2% i on Friday, but were still headed for a weekly decline as investors were concerned about a possible recession-related fall in demand even as global fuel supplies remained tight.
Brent crude futures rose $2.37, or 2.3%, to settle at $107.02 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.06, or 2%, to settle at $104.79 a barrel.
Gold was on track for a fourth consecutive week fall on Friday as it was hurt by the rising dollar and bets on sharp rate hikes gained ground after solid data from US.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,741.94 per ounce by 2:49 p.m. ET (1849 GMT). Bullion has lost about 3.7% so far this week, which would be its worst since mid-May.U.S. gold futures settled up 0.2% at $1,742.30.