Posted at 30 June 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German May Import Price Index (MoM) 0.9%, 1.6% forecast, 1.8% previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 1.3% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q1) 8.7%, 8.7% forecast, 6.6% previous
•UK GDP Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1) -0.6% , -0.5% previous
•UK Current Account (Q1) -51.7B, -39.8B forecast, -7.3B previous
•German May Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, -5.4% previous
•German May Import Price Index (YoY) 30.6%, 31.5% forecast ,31.7% previous
•Swiss May Retail Sales (YoY) 1.6% forecast, -6.0% previous
• French May Consumer Spending (MoM) 0.7% ,0.2% forecast ,-0.4% previous
• French CPI (MoM) 0.7%, 0.7% forecast ,- 0.7% previous
• French CPI (YoY) 5.8%, 5.7% forecast , 5.2% previous
• German Jun Unemployment Rate 5.3%, 5.0% forecast ,5.0% previous
•German Jun Unemployment n.s.a. 2.363M ,2.246M forecast , 2.260M previous
•German Jun Unemployment Change 133K,-6K forecast ,-4K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US May PCE Price index (YoY) 6.3 previous
•12:30 US May Personal Income (MoM) 0.5% forecast ,- 0.4% previous
•12:30 US May Personal Spending (MoM) 0.4% forecast ,0.9% previous
•12:30 US PCE price index (MoM) 0.2% previous
•12:30 US May Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.4% forecast , 0.3% previous
•12:30 US May Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.8% forecast ,4.9% previous
•12:30 Canada Apr GDP (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 228K forecast, 229K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,310K forecast,1,315K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 223.50K previous
•13:45 US Chicago PMI 58.0 forecast,60.3 previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 74B forecast, 74B previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 1.100% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 1.500% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•13:30 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Thursday as dollar benefited from safe-haven demand on renewed worries about higher rates and a global recession. The euro was at $1.044, after losing 0.75% on the dollar the day before, and heading for a monthly decline of 2.7%. A steady and aggressive global switch to tighter policy has stoked recession worries and shaken financial markets in recent months.Speaking at the European Central Bank’s annual conference in Sintra, Portugal, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it was important to bring down inflation, even if it meant economic pain, with similar remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0497(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0533(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0384(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0299(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Thursday as data revealed a record shortfall in the United Kingdom’s current account deficit in early 2022. Data on Thursday showed Britain racking up a record shortfall in its current account in the first three months of this year, as the deficit ballooned to 51.7 billion pounds ($62.8 billion) or 8.3% of gross domestic product. Expectations of a bigger hike were tempered on Wednesday after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey struck a softer tone, saying the central bank will not necessarily have to act “forcefully” to get inflation under control.Bailey’s dovishness was echoed by incoming BoE policymaker Swati Dhingra who called for a very gradual tightening in light of a quicker than expected economic slowdown. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2202(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2353(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2106(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1963(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Thursday as dollar benefited from safe-haven demand on renewed worries about higher rates and a global recession. Central bank chiefs from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England met in Portugal this week and voiced their renewed commitment to control inflation no matter what pain it caused. Traders are now focused on data on U.S. core prices due at 1230 GMT that are expected to underline the extent of the inflation challenge. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9592(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9635(50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9496 (61.8% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9422(Lower BB ).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against the Japanese yen on Thursday as gap between a hawkish Fed and a dovish Bank of Japan continues to weigh heavily on the yen. The BOJ is able to keep interest rates pinned down because Japanese inflation is still low by global standards, though even small price rises are causing a messaging problem for the central bank. The dollar also hit fresh a 24-year peak of 137 yen overnight.The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, was at 105.19, a two week high. Strong resistance can be seen at 136.98 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 137.87(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 135.91(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 134.71(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares on Thursday looked set for their worst quarter since the pandemic-led carnage in early 2020, as investors became increasingly wary of a global recession in the wake of hawkish central bank actions to tame rapid inflation.
At (GMT 12:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 2.04 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 2.60 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 2.59 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell on Thursday and was bound for its worst quarter in five as a stronger dollar and hawkish rhetoric from central banks eroded the appeal of the non-yielding asset.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,808.60 per ounce by 1105 GMT, on track to fall more than 6% for the quarter and drop for a third straight month. U.S. gold futures slipped 0.4% to $1,810.60.
Oil prices were largely steady in volatile trading on Thursday as the market weighed concerns over global supply against a build in U.S. fuel product inventories.
Brent crude futures for September, the more actively traded contract, were up 28 cents, or 0.3%, at $112.73 a barrel by 0911 GMT. The August contract, which expires on Thursday, was down 11 cents, or 0.1%, at $116.15.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 20 cents, or 0.2%, to $109.98.