Posted at 02 May 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Mar Retail Sales (MoM) -2.7%,,0.3% forecast , 0.3% previous
•German Mar Retail Sales (YoY) 6.1% forecast ,7.0% previous
•Sweden Apr Manufacturing PMI 55.5, 57.3 previous
• Spanish Apr Manufacturing PMI 53.3, 54.0 forecast ,54.2 previous
• Italian Apr Manufacturing PMI 54.5, 55.0 forecast , 55.8 previous
•French Apr Manufacturing PMI 55.7, 55.4 forecast , 55.4 previous
•German Apr Manufacturing PMI 54.6, 54.1 forecast ,54.1 previous
•EU Apr Manufacturing PMI 55.5, 55.3 forecast ,55.3 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•11:00 Canada ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 475.0K previous
•12:30 French 12-Month BTF Auction -0.156% previous
•12:30 French 6-Month BTF Auction -0.541% previous
•12:30 French 3-Month BTF Auction -0.669% previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Manufacturing PMI 58.9 previous
•13:45 Canada Apr Manufacturing PMI 59.7 previous
•14:00 US Mar Construction Spending (MoM) 0.7% forecast, 0.5% previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Manufacturing PMI 57.6 forecast, 57.1 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 0.890% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 1.370% previous
•22:00 US Mar Dallas Fed PCE 4.00% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
• No significant events
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against dollar on Monday as after data showed Euro zone factory output growth stalled in April. Euro zone manufacturing output growth stalled last month as factories struggled to source raw materials while demand took a knock from steep price increases and fears about the economic outlook, a survey showed. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coupled with renewed COVID-19 related lockdowns in China, have exacerbated supply chain bottlenecks and left factories struggling and forward looking indicators in the survey did not point to an imminent turnaround.S&P Global's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to a 15-month low of 55.5 in April from March's 56.5, just above below an initial flash estimate of 55.3 and still comfortably above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0583(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0662 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0475(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0400 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against the dollar on Monday as market focued on this week's BoE meet and prospects for a rate hike. The Bank of England will try to walk what Governor Andrew Bailey calls a very tight line between tackling inflation speeding way above the BoE's target and not triggering a recession.The BoE is expected to raise interest rates at a fourth meeting in a row on May 5, the first time it has done that since 1997, as it moves faster than other central banks to tackle the surging price growth that they once described as transitory. Financial markets have fully priced in a quarter-point rise in Bank Rate to 1.0%, its highest since 2009, and investors are more focused on what the BoE signals about its next moves. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2629(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2748(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2544 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2435(23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Monday as investors braced for a large interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank's Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to begin its two-day meeting on May 3 and announce its decision the next day.U.S. policymakers look set to deliver a series of aggressive rate hikes at least until the summer to deal with rapid inflation and surging labour costs, even as two reports released on Friday showed tentative signs that both may be cresting. A rate hike of 50 basis points on Wednesday evening should come as no surprise as Fed Chair Jerome Powell has more or less announced this in advance. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9753(23.6 % fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9785(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9671(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9611(38.2 % fib ).
USD/JPY: The dollar held steady against dollar on Monday as investors prepared for a busy week of central bank meetings including a likely Federal Reserve interest rate hike. 2016. Investors are expecting the Fed to hike rates by 50 basis points when it meets, and the uncertainty is around how hawkish Fed Chair Jerome Powell will sound in comments following the decision. Markets are pricing in an aggressive run of rate hikes from the Fed as it tries to tame soaring inflation. The dollar index gained 5% in April, its best monthly performance since January 2015. Strong resistance can be seen at 131.02(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 132.15(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 129.2538.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 128.81(9DMA).
Equities Recap
European stocks suddenly fell on Monday before partly recovering in what brokers described as a "flash crash" or an erroneous trade on a day where a holiday thinned trading activity.
At (GMT 11:11 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.49 percent, Germany's Dax down by 0.76 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 1.43 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped 1% toward 2-1/2-month lows on Monday as investors braced for a large interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, as it seeks to contain soaring inflation, denting the zero-yield bullion's appeal.
Spot gold fell 0.9% to $1,880.01 per ounce by 1000GMT, hovering near last week's low of $1,871.81 an ounce. U.S. gold futures dropped 1.6% to $1,880.70.
Oil prices fell on Monday as concerns about weak economic growth in China, the world's top oil importer, outweighed fears of potential supply stress from a potential European Union ban on Russian crude.
Brent crude futures fell 71 cents, or 0.6%, to $106.43 a barrel at 0801 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 70 cents, or 0.6%, to $103.99 a barrel.