Posted at 05 November 2021 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Oct Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 0.9%, 1.7%
•German Sep Industrial Production (MoM) -1.1%, 1.0% forecast, -4.0% previous
• UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 7.3%,7.4% previous
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3) 0.5%, 1.1% previous
• French Sep Industrial Production (MoM) -1.3%, 0.4% forecast, 1.0% previous
• German Oct IHS Markit Construction PMI 47.7, 47.1 previous
• Italian Sep Retail Sales (YoY) 5.3%, 1.9% previous
•Italian Sep Retail Sales (MoM) 0.8%,0.4% previous
•EU Sep Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3%,0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•EU Sep Retail Sales (YoY) 2.5%,1.5% forecast, 3.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Oct US Average Weekly Hours 34.8 forecast, 34.8 previous
•12:30 US Oct US Unemployment Rate 4.7% forecast, 4.8% previous
•12:30 US Oct US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.9% forecast, 4.6% previous
•12:30 US Oct U6 Unemployment Rate 8.5% previous
•12:30 US Oct Participation Rate 61.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Oct Employment Change 50.0K forecast, 157.1K previous
•12:30 Canada Oct Participation Rate 65.5% previous
• 12:30 Canada Oct Unemployment Rate 6.8% forecast, 6.9% previous
•12:30 US Oct Government Payrolls -123.0K previous
•12:30 Canada Oct Full Employment Change 193.6K previous
•12:30 Canada Oct Part Time Employment Change -36.5K previous
•12:30 Canada Oct Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
• 12:30 US Oct Private Nonfarm Payrolls 400K forecast, 317K previous
• 12:30 US Oct Nonfarm Payrolls 450K forecast, 194K previous
• 12:30 US Oct Manufacturing Payrolls 27K forecast, 26K previous
• 14:00 Canada Oct Ivey PMI 70.4 previous
• 14:00 Canada Oct Ivey PMI n.s.a 64.5 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 542 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 443 previous
•19:00 US Sep Consumer Credit 15.90B forecast, 14.38B previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Friday as dollar strengthened ahead of a key U.S. jobs report and after a string of central banks this week pushed back against faster tightening of monetary policy. Investors will be closely watching fresh U.S. labour market data due later on Friday, which could sway the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate increases. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six rivals, has strengthened nearly 1% over the past fortnight and consolidated its gains on Friday, up 0.1% ahead of the jobs data at 94.452. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1576 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1594 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1526 (23.6 % fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1502 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell to five-week lows on Friday, extending its losses after the Bank of England surprised the market by leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday. Seven of the nine members of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the main interest rate at its all-time low of 0.1%, resulting in sterling’s biggest daily fall in more than 18 months. Policymakers had previously signalled the rate could be raised. Governor Andrew Bailey last month stressed the need to prevent inflation running above the bank’s 2% target from becoming permanently embedded, while fellow policymaker Michael Saunders said households needed to brace for significantly earlier interest rate rises. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3508 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3569 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3430(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3400(Psychological level).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors awaited U.S. jobs data due later in the day. The dollar gains came even after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday finally announced that it would begin tapering its massive asset purchase programme, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he was in no rush to hike borrowing costs. The dollar index last stood at 94.327, within sight of October’s 12-month highs. At (GMT 12:03), greenback gained 0.03% versus the Swiss franc to 0.9178.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9172 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9208 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9138 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9119 (Daily low).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen on Friday as focus shifted to a monthly U.S. jobs report due later in the day. Investors will be keenly watching U.S. monthly jobs data due at 1230 GMT to get a critical view of the economy, after a report on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell drastically. The Federal Reserve this week stuck to its view that inflation would prove “transitory” and would likely not require a fast rise in interest rates.Strong resistance can be seen at 114.10 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 114.62 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 113.53(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 113.10(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European equities hit a record high on Friday, marking the fifth straight session of notching new highs on fading concerns around global monetary policy tightening and positive earnings from some companies.
At (GMT 12:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.12 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.77 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were on track to end the week higher, as the non-yielding metal’s appeal was boosted by major central banks standing pat on interest rates, with focus now shifting to a monthly U.S. jobs report due later in the day.
Spot gold edged up 0.06% to $1,792.74 per ounce by 1115 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.1% to $1,795.60 per ounce.
Oil prices rose above $81 a barrel on Friday after OPEC+ producers rebuffed a U.S. call to raise supply to cool the market, sticking to plans for a gradual increase in output after cuts made in the face of the coronavirus crisis.
Brent crude rose 52 cents, or 0.65%, to $81.06 a barrel by 1200 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 64 cents, or 0.81%, to $79.45 after rising as high as $80.17.