Posted at 30 October 2021 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q3) 1.3%, 0.9% forecast, 0.7% previous
•Canada Sep RMPI (YoY) 31.9% ,27.7% previous
•Canada Sep IPPI (MoM) 1.0%, -0.3% previous
•Canada Sep RMPI (MoM) 2.5%, -2.4% previous
•US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q3) 1.50%,0.90% previous
•US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q3) 0.90%, 0.40% previous
•US Sep Personal Income (MoM) -1.0%,-0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Sep Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.3%, 0.4% previous
•US Sep PCE price index (MoM) 0.3%, 0.4% previous
•US Sep PCE Price index (YoY) 4.4,4.3 previous
•US Sep Personal Spending (MoM) 0.6%,0.5% forecast, 0.8% previous
•US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 3.6%,3.7% forecast, 3.6% previous
•Canada Aug GDP (MoM) 0.4%, 0.7% forecast, -0.1% previous
•US Oct Michigan Consumer Expectations 67.9, 67.2 forecast, 68.1 previous
•US Oct Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.8%,4.8% forecast, 4.6% previous
•US Oct Michigan Consumer Sentiment 71.7, 71.4 forecast, 71.4 previous
•US Oct Michigan Current Conditions 77.7,77.9 forecast, 80.1 previous
•Canada Aug Budget Balance -9.83B, -21.94Bprevious
•Canada Aug Budget Balance (YoY) -57.15B, -170.52B previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 444, 445 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 544 ,543 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Friday as U.S. dollar gained as rising consumer prices bolstered expectations of interest rate hikes even with data showing solid growth in U.S. consumer spending. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.6% in September, the Commerce Department said on Friday, signifying strong consumer confidence as COVID-19 infections fall. The dollar index continued to rebound from prior-day losses on news that the Fed's preferred inflation measure showed prices continuing to rise faster than its 2% target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1591 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1641(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1525 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling dropped on Friday as dollar strengthened after U.S. data. Data showed U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in September, while inflation pressures are broadening. The data indicated the jury is still out on whether the Fed’s “transitory” view on inflation will hold true. The dollar’s strength saw cable, which had been steady for much of Friday’s, drop to a two-week low. The pound was down 0.8% on the day at $1.3689 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3734(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3809(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3671(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3608(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Friday as oil prices fell and domestic data showed that economic growth likely flatlined in September. A preliminary estimate from Statistics Canada showed that GDP was unchanged in September following a weaker-than-expected gain of 0.4% in August. Economists had expected a gain of 0.7%. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, fell as rising U.S. inventories and the prospect of more Iranian exports countered expectations that OPEC and its allies will keep supply tight. The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.2389 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2378(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3428(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2315(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2250 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Friday as greenback strengthened across the board after data showed U.S. consumer spending jumped in September. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy components, climbed 0.2% after gaining 0.3% in August. In the 12 months through September, the so-called core PCE price index increased 3.6%, little changed from August. Friday’s data also showed a gain in employment costs and consumer inflation for September fanned worries that the Fed could take aggressive policy action to combat the surge in prices. Strong resistance can be seen at 114.28 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 115.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 113.80(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 113.34(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European equities ended flat on Friday as a jump in major financial stocks driven by surging bond yields offset weakness in high dividend-yielding sectors and commodity companies reeling from a slide in oil and metal prices.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.05 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.38 percent.
U.S. stocks shook off early declines and closed out the last trading day of the month with modest gains as a rise in Microsoft helped offset declines in Amazon and Apple after disappointing quarterly earnings from the online retailer and iPhone maker.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.25% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.19 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.33 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Friday, with some maturities pulling back from highs, as selling eased amid uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike since December 2018 and the number of such increases.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield was down 1 basis point at 1.5574% . On the week, the 10-year yield was down 8 basis points, the largest weekly drop since early July.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell to their lowest level in more than a week on Friday, weighed down by a stronger dollar after U.S. data showing inflation stayed hot last month put the focus back on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.
Spot gold fell 0.9% to $1,782.23 per ounce by 2:10 p.m. EDT (1810 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December settled down 1.04% at $1,783.90 per ounce.
U.S. crude prices settled higher on Friday, turning positive after an early decline, supported by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, known as OPEC+, would maintain production cuts.
Brent crude rose 6 cents to settle at $84.38, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 76 cents, or 0.9%, to $83.57.